What we learned in Week 7...
I have to start this week with a little bit of editorial. We are seven weeks into the NFL season and the product is not great. We have one great team (New England) and then maybe three or four teams we think are decent (Denver, Seattle, Dallas, maybe Minnesota, maybe Philadelphia) but beyond that we have about 15-20 teams who are all ok, but nothing to write home about. It makes both watching and tipping the games hard work.
Now that is out of my system we start with that tie. I mean how on Earth did Seattle @ Arizona end in a 6-6 draw? Both teams missed chip shot field goals to win the game in overtime and that says so much. Do you know how many first downs the Seahawks offense had in regulation on offense? Five. Yes just five. They can play lights out D but they can't score and yet, they might be the best team in the NFC, they are certainly in the discussion. If that doesn't say everything then I don't know what will.
Next up the AFC West. Could this be the best division in the NFL? All four teams won last week including a big win for the Chargers on the road in Atlanta. All four teams are better than the low average this season. Could three teams make it into the playoffs? It isn't beyond the realms of possibility. No wildcard is coming out of the South, I struggle to think Buffalo make it from the East so that only leaves the runner up in the North. Oakland, Kansas City and Denver could all win 10-11 games. Watch this one closely because they are all solid enough.
The Vikings finally went down and whilst I won't say their 5-0 record was a mirage, I was never fully sold on them. It was a really crazy game though so I won't fire them out of my top five just yet. I think they are poor on offense but they have the Bears on Monday night so they'll get back on track easily enough.
The Fine Five
1. New England Patriots (No Change)
2. Denver Broncos (NEW)
3. Seattle Seahawks (No Change)
4. Dallas Cowboys (No Change)
5. Minnesota Vikings (-3)
What to watch for in Week 8
I love the Sunday night match for the first time in a while. Most pundits have both the Eagles and Cowboys as nice surprises with their rookie QBs and they meet in prime time. Dallas are rolling with a five game winning streak and victory here would put up two games up in the loss column on anyone else in the NFC East. If the Eagles win it will open up that division once more. This should be a good one and because of the time difference being only four hours today, it'll start at 00:30, which is a right bonus.
The revenge factor in Buffalo is worth watching. The Patriots have lost just once all season and you know Bill Belichick was steaming mad losing to Rex Ryan. With Brady back under center and the Gronk running wild. Once more I'll dose up heavily on the Pats prop bets as I fully expect them to want to stomp all over the Bills to reassert their dominance.
Also have interesting in the Packers/Falcons game in the late window. Not sure I really like either team but someone has to be good in the NFC and both these teams are in that pack just below the 'good teams'. The winner here puts themselves very much in the mix in the conference.
Quick note on Carolina/Arizona. That was the NFC Championship Game in January and its been relegated to the early non-national window this Sunday. Says a lot about their seasons so far...
3pt Back New England to beat Buffalo with a 13.5pt handicap at 14/5 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 304.5 passing yards in New England @ Buffalo for Tom Brady at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 73.5 receiving yards in New England @ Buffalo for Rob Gronkowski at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 63.5 LeGarrette Blount for New England @ Buffalo at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back Oakland to beat Tampa Bay with a 6.5pt handicap at 23/10 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 73.5 yards rushing for Devontae Booker in San Diego @ Denver at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 5.5 receptions for Cole Beasley in Philadelphia @ Dallas at Evens on the Sportsbook