NFL Week Six Tips: The Brady and Mahomes match-up should be a thriller
The marquee match-up comes from New England where the 5-0 Kansas City Chiefs roll into town. Neil Monnery looks at this game but others in his week six NFL tip sheet...
'In the Bill Belchick era, opposition QBs under the age of 25 are 0-24 when facing Tom Brady in New England. This has to change sometime, doesn't it?'
The big game of the week
Kansas City and their high-octane offense face Tom Brady and the New England Patriots on Sunday night in a match-up of two of the three best in the AFC. It is without a doubt, the game of the week.
Patrick Mahomes has come back to Earth in the past fortnight but is still one of the brightest lights the league has to offer. The way he brought his side back from a two score deficit in Denver is firmly etched in the memory. The second-year player has yet to show a severe weakness.
His opposite number is of course the aforementioned Tom Brady, who needs no introduction. After a 1-2 start, questions were starting to mount as to whether this was the year father time finally caught up with the 41 year-old. Two one-sided wins later and things are once more looking rosy in the garden of the future first ballot Hall of Famer.
This will be billed as a match-up of the greatest of his generation and the man who could be taking his crown.
The surrounding cast on offense for both teams is nearly as good. Kansas City have the likes of Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. New England have Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon. If this isn't a high-scoring affair, it would be a shocker. This is reflected in the over/under line being a mind-boggling 60 points.
Despite that 60 point line, I still like the over.
In the Bill Belchick era, opposition QBs under the age of 25 are 0-24 when facing Tom Brady in New England. This has to change sometime, doesn't it? This game may well get revisited in my superdog section...
Despite it not being one of the best games on paper, the Seahawks and Raiders meet at Wembley Stadium, which will be attended by many readers of this column.
Jon Gruden's return to the sidelines from the booth hasn't exactly gone to plan. A 1-4 record is actually inflated because had the refs done their job properly, that solitary win against the Browns would've been a loss. Derek Carr is a fine QB but with no defense to speak of and a severe lack in the running department, the rebuild job looks set to take a while.
Seattle themselves are going through a similar scenario as the Legion of Boom has slowly been dismantled. Russell Wilson is still an above average quarterback but apart from Tyler Lockett, you'd be stretching it to find a good skill player available for him to get the ball to.
This shouldn't be anything to write home about but when push comes to shove, give me Seattle. I just hope the fans in attendance enjoy the spectacle.
Acca of the week
A treble this week all from the over/under lines. Over 45.5 in Colts @ Jets, over 41 in Bills @ Texans and over 44 in Panthers @ Washington. This is available at the time of writing at 7.22 on the Sportsbook.
I don't believe in the defense in of either New York or Indy. The line seems surprisingly low considering Andrew Luck is leading one of the teams. Sam Darnold isn't great but against the Colts D, he should have an above-average game. Really love the over here.
Houston need to find a way to throttle a team and this is a chance for DeShaun Watson to break out. I'm liking the former Clemson Tiger to lead his side to a blowout victory and score 30+ for only the second time this season.
As for Carolina going into the nation's capital, if Cam Newton gets Greg Olsen back, which seems likely at this point, it completely changes the dynamic of their offense. Alex Smith needs to rally his team after Monday night's debacle at New Orleans. Like plenty of points in this one.
Three teams that are getting more than a field goal are in my sights for the superdog pick this week. Denver are hosting the LA Rams and it is clear who is the better team but a division game on the road, a week after clawing their way to a two point win at Seattle makes me think this could be the week Jared Goff and company go down.
Miami are also on my radar. I don't think they are any good per se but Mitch Trubisky isn't going to have a day like last time out for a while. Chicago have a very good defense and that is the only thing stopping me from picking this game for the straight up upset.
The final option is that big game in New England. Generally you get three points on the spread for playing at home so the Sportsbook rates these two teams essentially as good as one another. I've taken Kansas City -3.5 in the spread down below and straight up I like them to pull off the upset.
I'm going with two big underdogs to get the W. Kansas City and Denver!
The long-shot of the week
A simple double coming in at 126.00 at the time of writing is my long-shot of the week.
With Kansas City @ New England looking like a shoot-out, I feel this is the week Tyreek Hill gets his mojo back and him scoring twice is 8/1. I've written above about Houston winning big so I think speedster Will Fuller V scoring twice at 13/1 is tempting. Put them together and you could be quids in.
If you are a fan of the 3TDs for both teams in each half bet then the best choice this week is Kansas City @ New England at 150/1
The full picks
Each week I'll pick every game bar the Thursday game according to their handicap on the SBK at the time of writing (home team in caps):
JETS (-2.5) over Colts
Cardinals (+10.5) over VIKINGS
BROWNS (-1) over Chargers
Steelers (+1) over BENGALS
TEXANS (-10) over Bills
Seahawks (-2.5) over RAIDERS (in London)
FALCONS (-3) over Buccaneers
DOLPHINS (+3.5) over Bears
Panthers (+1) over WASHINGTON
BRONCOS (+7) over Rams
TITANS (+2.5) over Ravens
Jaguars (-3) over COWBOYS
Chiefs (+3.5) over Patriots
PACKERS (-10) over 49ers
Last week: 6-8
Season Record: 36-35-1
Back Kansas City to win straight up at 6/4 on SBK (Sportsbook)
Back the over in New York, Houston and Washington at 7.22 (Sportsbook)
Back Denver to win straight up at 12/5 on SBK (Sportsbook)
Back each team to score over 3TDs in each half in Kansas City @ New England at 150/1 on SBK (Sportsbook)