NFL Betting: What have we learned going into Week Four?

Don't expect a happy Rex Ryan on Sunday evening
Don't expect a happy Rex Ryan on Sunday evening

The top four in Neil Monnery's power rankings all boast tremendous defenses and all of them had very impressive wins last week...


"I want to see whether Kansas City are for real. I am pretty darn sure Pittsburgh are, I only took them out of my top five because there are five unbeaten teams, it is hard to keep any of them out. I think this game goes a long way to deciding whether either of these teams are in the calibre of New England and Denver."

What we learned in Week Three...


We start with Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles. That was some beat down of their Pennsylvania rivals on Sunday. This kid looks as though he is the real deal and it is time to take him seriously. What has been overlooked is just how great their defense is. It is right up there with the Minnesota and Denver units that are just insanely good. Well coached and don't make mistakes. There is a lot to like about the Eagles right now.

Speaking of Minnesota and Denver. Two very impressive road wins for them on Sunday. The Vikings went into Charlotte and just shutdown Cam Newton and the high octane Panthers. That is the most impressive win made by a team not coached by Bill Belichick so far this season. Denver went into Cincinnati and saw Trevor Siemien throw for 312 and four scores. If he does that most weeks then they aren't losing many games.

Remember all the desperation in New York about bring back Ryan Fitzpatrick? How does six interceptions in one game sound? The Jets have the personnel to be a pretty handy second tier team in the AFC yet they just inspire so little faith. Sell your NY Jets stock, if you bought any in the first place.

We also learned that the Jacksonville Jaguars are heartbreakers (and killers on the tipping side of things). They intercepted Joe Flacco twice in the final five minutes, they had the lead and still found a way to lose that game. I have no faith in them at all but I still have hope that their offense will click and they'll once more become a solid week in, week out overs play.


The Fine Five


1. New England Patriots (No Change)
2. Denver Broncos (No Change)
3. Minnesota Vikings (NEW)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (NEW)
5. Baltimore Ravens (NEW)


What to watch for in Week Four


Who will play QB for the New England Patriots? It is the last game of Tom Brady's suspension and Bill Belichick goes up against the team coached by the man who really loves the sound of his own voice Rex Ryan. Ryan is 1-7 in his last eight match-ups with Belichick and I fully expect another big Patriots victory.

I am really looking forward to the Sunday night game, which my colleague Neil Harvey has previewed in full. I want to see whether Kansas City are for real. I am pretty darn sure Pittsburgh are, I only took them out of my top five because there are five unbeaten teams, it is hard to keep any of them out. I think this game goes a long way to deciding whether either of these teams are in the calibre of New England and Denver.

I'm also liking the Raiders going into Baltimore as a game. There has been a lot of love for Oakland around the place and I want to see them on the road against a team we think are pretty good.

A quick word on Denver, they are only giving 3.5pts on the handicap in Tampa Bay? That is a strange line. I'm going to play the line where they give 9.5pts at 5/2 on the Sportsbook. That line is one of the most surprising I've seen.


Recommended Bets (All Evens or better)

3pt Back Denver -9.5pts to beat Tampa Bay on the alternative line at 5/2 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 26.5pts for New England at 6/5 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 26.5pts for Arizona at 6/5 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 27.5pts for Carolina at 23/20 on the Sportsbook


Neil Monnery NFL P/L

2015:

Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts

2016:
Staked - 51pts
Returned - 37.77pts
P&L - -13.23pts

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