Neil Monnery reviews week two and looks ahead to week three in the NFL where sees some home teams putting up big points at odds against prices...
"You may not like him but you have to admire the genius that is Bill Belichick."
What we learned in Week Two (and Three)...
The first thing we learned is that the Seattle Seahawks have serious questions surrounding their offense. Only one touchdown in two full games is very worrying. It isn't like they have faced any juggernauts either, having played the Dolphins and the Rams. I'm still a strong believer that they are right up there with the the very best in the NFC on the defensive side of the ball, yet you can see why they've drifted to 16.015/1 to win the Super Bowl.
Next up, we learned that just because Jordy Nelson is healthy and Eddie Lacy seems to have trimmed off the excess bulk he was carrying, it doesn't mean the Green Bay Packers are the overwhelming favourite in the NFC. They were the 8.07/1 favourites to win it all before the opener but have now dropped to 11.010/1. They lost a rivalry game against a team who had a QB starting who wasn't on the roster three weeks ago and who lost their star running back to injury. They also could easily have gone down in Jacksonville in week one. Time to cool down the Packers love.
We knew that the New York Giants had spent over $100million on the defensive side of the ball in the off-season and we saw the first signs of that on Sunday. Last year the Saints/Giants game saw over 100 points scored, this time around only 29. It was a good performance from the Giants D and they may well be the best team in the NFC East. I was impressed.
As for the Buffalo Bills, the Rex Ryan era is not long for that franchise. He fired the man who internally could have replaced him in Greg Roman and you can just see the wheels coming off that wagon at a frightening speed.
Lastly a quick note about the Thursday game this week. New England with a third-string, rookie QB absolutely beat up a playoff team from last year. It was a pathetic performance by the Houston Texans and in all honesty, they played scared. Still, take nothing away from the Patriots. They are all the way in to 6.05/1 to win the Lombardi Trophy and boy do they look good. This team are by a country mile, the best coached team in football and they are also playing with a chip on their shoulder.
You may not like him but you have to admire the genius that is Bill Belichick.
The Fine Five
1. New England Patriots
2. Denver Broncos
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. New York Giants
5. Carolina Panthers
What to watch for in Week Three
Carson Wentz gets to play a top class defense for the first time when the Eagles take on the Steelers in the late window on Sunday. He has been mightily impressive through two starts but we'll find out a tonne about him on Sunday.
The Broncos go on the road to Cincinnati. This will be Trevor Siemian's first road start in the NFL. I have little doubt that the Denver D will show up and be suffocating once more but this is a big game for Siemian and Denver. If they win again (and they are getting 3.5 points on the spread) then I think we'll see them getting a lot more respect from punters on the Exchange, who seem to still doubt them.
Carolina welcome Minnesota into town in what might be the game of the day. We are all pretty confident the Panthers can light it up on the scoreboard but they lost to a mighty defense in Denver, and Minnesota are only a small step behind the Broncos in terms of defensive steel. With no Adrian Peterson, it puts a lot of pressure on Sam Bradford but certainly a game to keep an eye on with regards to future NFC/Super Bowl bets.
Recommended Bets (All Evens or better)
5pt Back over 24.5pts for Jacksonville at 27/20 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 28.5pts for New York Giants at 6/5 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 24.5pts for Oakland at 6/5 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back Denver to win straight up at 13/8 on the Sportsbook
Neil Monnery NFL P/L
Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts
Staked - 28pts
Returned - 17.73pts
P&L - -10.27pts