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NFL Sunday Tips: No reason to desert the Cowboys in Week Two

Case Keenum
Mike can see Case Keenum making errors for the Redskins against the Cowboys
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Mike Carlson started the new NFL season with three winning bets from three, but that wasn't the only highlight. Our man reviews a busy week one before attempting to maintain his 100% tipping start on Sunday...

"I still worry about the Redskins' offensive line, and I see Case Keenum making some errors."

Best Bet: Dallas (-5.5 at 9/10) at Washington

There is life in the NFL aside from Antonio Brown. Honest. Ir you don't know what I'm talking about, Google Brown for the latest controversies and then come back.

Okay, done that? In fact week one's results were a smorgasbord of surprise, not least Brown's former team (at least before the Raiders, for whom he of course never played) laying three whole points on the Gronk-less Patriots, Brown's new team (for whom, of course, he has not yet played) who scored 33 and duly won as they raised their sixth Super Bowl banner over Gillette Stadium, tying Pittsburgh as the all-time Lombardi Trophy leaders.

Baltimore beat Miami 59-10. People are accusing Miami of deliberately trying to lose games to be in a better position for next year's draft. In response, they re-signed pass rusher Tank Carradine. The Ravens were up 35-3 in the second quarter and ran a fake punt, which gained 60 yards. That had to offend the football gods. And people would rather hate Bill Belichick?

In the Kansas City/Jacksonville game both Tyreek Hill and Nick Foles suffered broken collarbones; Hill's at the junction of the clavicle and sternum, was the more serious; it's as if someone wanted him to miss games even though the NFL did not suspend him in the off-season following him being accused of breaking his son's arm. Jacksonville also had the week's best WWE moment, as Myles Jack was ejected from the game for throwing a punch and then spent the next five minutes having to be dragged away from the field.

Cleveland's Greg Robinson was ejected for kicking Kenny Vaccaro; his replacement at left tackle was injured four plays later and the Browns let the air out of their incessant pre-season hype by collapsing against the Titans.

And the Raiders recovered from their part of the Brown affair to beat Denver on the baseball field in Oakland.

Meanwhile, this column was three for three in week one. Past performance is no guarantee of future success. Just like in football.

Cowboys backed again

Best Bet: Dallas (-5.5 at 9/10) at Washington

It's not every day my best bet is a road favourite, but I am going back to the well on the Cowboys after last week's success. The Skins are probably a better team offensively than the Giants, and with Adrian Peterson having something to prove, having been left inactive on game-day while starter Darrius Guice got injured, they could surprise. But I still worry about their offensive line, and I see Case Keenum making some errors. The real battle is up front where the Skins' front three vs the Cowboy front five is epic.

If you want a home favourite, how about Cincinnati (-2 at 19/20) vs San Francisco. The Bengals played well and lost in Seattle, and may be able to play well and win at home against a team not as good as the Seahawks.

Chiefs can outrun the Raiders

Value Bet: Kansas City (-7.5 at 11/10) at Oakland

This is really more of an outside bet, but there are not many games on offer where you get the odds. The Chiefs, even without Hill, have the horses to outrun the Raiders, though their defense needs to do a better job rushing Derek Carr than the Broncos, on paper a better pass-rush team than KC, were able to do. You can get evens on the over of 52.5 but I think Under at 5/6 is a better bet. There is also some value in Minnesota (+2.5 at 19/20) at Green Bay; I would like it much better if the line moved to 3--Green Bay's at home and rested, so I don't see why it might not.

Dolphins can slow down Brady's pass game

Outside Bet: Miami (+18.5 at 10/11) v New England

I usually stay away from huge spreads, but the Dolphins are at home, their secondary may be able to at least slow down Brady's pass game, and they likely won't run up the score like the Ravens did. In fact I am tempted to also take the Under (47.5 at 9/10) here, figuring if the Fish are going to cover, they will probably need to keep the Pats around 30. I also like Jacksonville (+8.5 at 10/11) at Houston, assuming rookie Gardner Minshew plays well and the Jags can pass rush DeShaun Watson into mistakes.

Mike Carlson,

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