NFL Week 18 Tips: Back Buffalo to book play-off spot

Josh Allen
Josh Allen can lead the Buffalo Bills to the play-offs

Paul Higham is back with his final regular season NFL betting preview of the campaign, including a blockbuster battle between Miami and Buffalo...

The final regular season games are upon us already, and with 20 teams still in play-off contention for five places and four divisional titles - there's all to play for.

13 of the 16 games taking place have some play-off implications riding on them, with several win-and-in games so it's sure to be an exciting end to the regular season.

NFL Week 18 Schedule

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) @ Baltimore Ravens (13-3)

Match Odds: 8/131.61 | 11/82.38
Points Spread: Steelers -3
Total Over/Under: 34.5

The Ravens are far better but the Steelers are their bogey team - with Pittsburgh 6-1 in recent meetings including winning the last three games in Baltimore.

Most importantly, the Steelers badly need a win to try and sneak into the play-offs while Lamar Jackson and several of Baltimore's top dogs will get the week off.

Back the Steelers -3 to win @ 10/111.91

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Houston Texans (9-7) @ Indiapolis Colts (9-7)

Match Odds: 9/10 | 19/201.95
Points Spread: Texans -1.5
Total Over/Under: 47.5

Two hugely improving sides meet with the winner making the play-offs and the loser going home. CJ Stroud can make the difference here with Indy susceptible to big plays in the air - and area the rookie excels in.

Houston's third-ranked rush defence can limit Indy's love of the ground game, and although Gardner Minshew can sling it, Stroud's won enough tight games this season to suggestion he can do it in the one that really matters.

Back Houston Texans -1.5 to win @ 10/111.91

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Buffalo Bills (10-6) @ Miami Dolphins (11-5)

Match Odds: 13/20 | 5/42.25
Points Spread: Bills -2.5
Total Over/Under: 48.5

This is the big one - Buffalo have looked like genuine Super Bowl contenders over the last month, but while they can pinch the AFC East off Miami with a win, a defeat will likely end their season prematurely.

The Bills battered Miami 48-20 in Week 4, their ninth win in 10 meetings, and the Dolphins have just that one win over a sloppy Dallas as their lone victory over a team with a winning record.

Josh Allen has a record 12 games with a rushing TD and he could well get another here, but against Miami's injury-hit secondary he could rekindle his old magic with Stefon Diggs.

It'll hopefully be a shootout, but even if it is I don't think Tua Tagovailoa can do enough to keep up.

Back Josh Allen to score & Bills to win @ 9/52.80

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New York Jets (6-10) @ New England Patriots (4-12)

Match Odds: 11/102.11 | 3/4
Points Spread: Patriots -1.5
Total Over/Under: 30.5

It looks like Bill Belichick's last game, and if it is there's no way he'll allow his side to lose to his big rivals who he's beaten 15 times on the bounce - he's not going out like that!

So even though he's going to have his worst season as a head coach, he can at least end it with a win against a Jets side with nothing to play for - and with snow forecast jump on the unders too.

Back Patriots -1.5 to win @ 10/111.91

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Dallas Cowboys (11-5) @ Washington Commanders (4-12)

Match Odds: 1/81.12 | 11/26.50
Points Spread: Cowboys -13.5
Total Over/Under: 47.5

Dallas need a win to claim the NFC East and given how good they are at home that could be priceless, and against a Washington side more intersted in their draft pick than wins at the end of the season, even the Cowboys shouldn't be able to mess this one up.

The spread is big enough as once Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb have profited from a generous Washington defence Dallas may ease up and sit some of their stars - but either way they should walk this.

Back CeeDee Lamb to score & Cowboys to win @ 4/51.80

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Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) @ New York Giants (5-11)

Match Odds: [4/9 | 15/82.88
Points Spread: Eagles -5.5
Total Over/Under: 41.5

The Eagles laid an egg when losing to Arizona last week, so even the Giants stand a chance of avenging their defeat in Philly two weeks ago - especially if the Cowboys go up early in their game.

So situations could change how this game is played, but regardless, Tyrod Taylor can play and Philly's recent defensive problems means backing Big Blue's points could offer value.

Back Giants to score over 17.5 points @ 5/61.84

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Chicago Bears (7-9) @ Green Bay Packers (8-8)

Match Odds: 11/82.38 | 8/131.61
Points Spread: Packers -3
Total Over/Under: 45

Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay fluffed their lines in a must-win finale against Detroit last year, but Jordan Love can go one better against a Chicago side that's found some form down the stretch, but has lost nine on the spin to the Pakcers.

Back Packers to win by 1-13pts @ 5/42.25

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