NFL Week 16 Tips: Bills to roll on, Dolphins to down Dallas

NFL Christmas betting tips
NFL Christmas betting tips

Paul Higham looks over what is a packed schedule of festive NFL fixtures, with his picks and best bets for games across Christmas including a possible Super Bowl preview.

There's never been a better time to be an NFL fan at Christmas that right now, with a feast of football over the festive period.

Games on Saturday and a full slate Sunday are even followed by three matches on Christmas Day - where we could well see a Super Bowl preview as the Chiefs face the Ravens.

Before then though there's plenty of pigskin to get stuck into in alongside your mince pies as the NFL keeps us entertained over Christmas.

NFL Christmas Schedule


Buffalo Bills (8-6) @ Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)

Match Odds: 2/151.13 | 5/16.00
Points Spread: Bills -12.5
Total Over/Under: 43.5

The Bills are the best team not currently in the play-offs and the way they've been playing if they do get in nobody will want to face them - the slumping Chargers who just shipped 62 points against the Raiders certainly don't.

Buffalo has to just be careful the sacking of Brandon Staley doesn't free the Chargers up to lift their levels, but Josh Allen and company are fighting for their playoff lives so there's no way complacency can creep in.

What's been especially impressive is Buffalo running the ball so effectively with James Cook, as they battered the Cowboys without Allen having to do much - they'll likely hit the Chargers hard and early and there'll be no response.

Back Cook to score & Bills to win @ 10/111.91

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Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)

Match Odds: 3/4 | 11/102.11
Points Spread: Bengals -1.5
Total Over/Under: 37

The Bengals will likely be without Ja'Marr Chase but they've been digging out wins, two of the three they've put together via overtime, and that attitude looks in stark contrast to some in this Steelers squad that's lost four of five.

The one win was in Cincinnati but the Bengals just look a tough outfit right now and they should have enough to see this one out.

Back the Bengals to win @ 3/4

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Sunday - Christmas Eve

Dak Prescott Cowboys.jpg

Dallas Cowboys (10-4) @ Miami Dolphins (10-4)

Match Odds: 1/12.00 | 5/61.84
Points Spread: Dolphins -1.5
Total Over/Under: 50.5

A blockbuster in Miami on Sunday but a weird one as this pair of 10-win sides still have questions to answer as the Dolphins are 0-3 and Dallas 1-3 against opposition with winning records.

Dallas need the win much more if they're to win the division, as their away form is nowhere near the dominance they show at home - which they illustrated perfectly with an abject defeat in Buffalo whilst the Dolphins shut out the Jets 30-0.

Jaylen Waddle showed he can step up if Tyreek Hill is slowed again and Raheem Mostert can expose gaps in Dallas' rush defence - so even though Dak Prescott will surely improve from last week Miami probably has just too much speed.

Back the Dolphins to beat the Cowboys @ 5/61.84

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Cleveland Browns (9-5) @ Houston Texans (8-6)

Match Odds: 7/101.70 | 23/20
Points Spread: Browns -2.5
Total Over/Under: 40.5

If Joe Flacco can cut out the interceptions then Cleveland could really be onto something with the former Super Bowl MVP who's thrown for 939 yards and seven TDs in three games.

The Browns also know how to win close games, winning five by three points or less, and although the Texans have won a fee nail-biters too, CJ Stroud being out could be the deciding factor.

Back the Browns to win by 1-13pts @ 13/102.30

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Indianapolis Colts (8-6) @ Atlanta Falcons (6-8)

Match Odds: 11/102.11 | 3/4
Points Spread: Falcons -2.5
Total Over/Under: 44.5

It's now five wins in six for the Colts, who have a 5-2 record on the road and are well in the playoff picture, while Atlanta have dropped the last two. The Falcons's haven't allowed a TD to a running back yet but Indy's Jonathan Taylor can change that as their run game can help them to another win.

Back the Colts to beat the Falcons @ 11/102.11

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Monday - Christmas Day

Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs.jpg

Las Vegas Raiders (6-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)

Match Odds: 7/24.50 | 1/51.20
Points Spread: Chiefs -10
Total Over/Under: 40.5

The Chiefs have dominated the Raiders recently, winning 10 of 11, seven of those by 14 points or more with Patrick Mahomes averaging over 300 yards a game against them.

Vegas lost 3-0 then stuck 60 points on the Chargers so who knows what they'll do next, but it's likely they'll lose as KC keep chasing that top AFC seed - with rookie Rashee Rice rapidly becoming Mahomes' most trusted receiver not named Travis Kelce.

Back Rice anytime TD & Chiefs to win @ 9/52.80

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Baltimore Ravens (11-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (11-3)

Match Odds: 9/52.80 | 4/91.44
Points Spread: Niners -5.5
Total Over/Under: 46.5

A Christmas cracker and possible Super Bowl preview as Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Lamar Jackson also get the chance to press their MVP claims with a big primetime performance.

The Niners are more convincing having won six straight by double digits, but the Ravens have the top scoring defence in the league and haven't allowed a rushing TD for 13 quarters - so McCaffrey could find it tough adding to his 20 TDs.

Back Deebo Samuel TD & 49ers to beat Ravens @ 9/52.80

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New York Giants (5-9) @ Philadelphia Eagles (10-4)

Match Odds: 11/26.50 | 1/91.11
Points Spread: Eagles -13.5
Total Over/Under: 43

Philly's slump is a real concern, but it'll be full-on crisis mode if they manage to lose to the Giants. Tommy DeVito should get some joy though agai`nst an Eagles defence that's 28th against the pass, 31st in pass TDs allowed last on third down.

Jalen Hurts and the offence has also been a worry though as they've not reached 20 points in the last three, but if they run it with Hurts and D'Andre Swift against this pretty weak Giants run defence they should get bacl to winning ways.

Back Swift anytime TD & Eagles win @ 9/52.80

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New Orleans Saints (7-7) @ Los Angeles Rams (7-7)

Match Odds: 17/102.70 | 1/21.50
Points Spread: Rams -4.5
Over/Under: 46.5

The Saints defence has limited their last two opponents to six points each in back-to-back wins, but the Rams have won four out of five and almost won in Baltimore during that run.

Matthew Stafford's 12 TD passes in the last four games leads the league, he's only thrown on interception in that spell as arguably the best QB not named Brock Purdy in the last month.

Rams running back Kyren Williams also leads the NFL in rushing yards per game (95.3) so LA holds all the aces

Back Rams -4.5, Stafford 2+ pass TDs, Williams anytime TD @ 5/23.50

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