Pats finally win in Pittsburgh
Cowboys face Eagles in NFC East showdown
We're getting into the home stretch of the NFL season now and most things are still up in the air.
We've got some play-off scenarios where the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles or Dallas Cowboys could book their post-season spot this weekend, but we've come to expect the unexpected this season.
The AFC is a big muddle after the Chiefs lost last week while there are a number of teams getting hot just at the right time, so Week 14 should be another belter...
NFL Week 14 Schedule
Philadelphia Eagles (10-2) @ Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
Match Odds: 8/52.60 | 1/21.50
Points Spread: Cowboys -3.5
Total Over/Under: 51.5
Philly's dodgy play all season caught up with them last week as they were exposed by the 49ers, but Dallas aren't San Francisco so there's perhaps a hint of overreaction to the Cowboys being hot favourites here.
They're second-worst in the league for allowing passing TDs and Deebo Samuel had 115 yards after the catch last week - two metrics that will have Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb rubbing their hands.
But it's still Philly and they'll be dying to make a statement after last week, so this one will be tight, not to mention brutal, and in truth could go either way pretty easily.
So instead of the outright we'll take Lamb to breach that pourous pass defence and Hurts to score for a fifth game in a row.
Buffalo Bills (6-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
Match Odds: 1/12.00 | 9/10
Points Spread: Chiefs -1.5
Total Over/Under: 48.5
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have served up some classic encounters, but the defences could decide this as neither team has won this season when allowing over 20 points.
Buffalo has won at Arrowhead the last two regular seasons behind some stellae rowrk from Allen - and the Bills have much the better offence with Mahomes still not being able to fully trust any receiver not named Travis Kelce.
It kind of feels like a must-win for both, but Buffalo's big problem has been clinching close games - all of their defeats have been by six or less points so when the chips are down they've come up short so far, and that's enough of a worry to side with the hosts in a coin flip.
Seattle Seahawks (6-6) @ San Francisco 49ers (9-3)
Match Odds: 5/16.00 | 1/71.14
Points Spread: Niners -13.5
Total Over/Under: 46.5
San Francisco could book a play-off spot with a win and a loss for either the Packers of Vikings, and they're huge favourites to do so having won in Seattle by 18 points just 18 days ago.
The Niners marched into Philly and smashed the Eagles last week and they've been smashing the Seahawke regularly of late - winning four straight by a combined 120-56.
Seattle have had a mini-bye to prepare though and I can see them causing more problems than they managed in the home fixture, but San Francisco are a match-up nightmare so we'll take a stats combo of Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey instead.
Samuel and McCaffrey both scored in Seattle and both can hurt you on the ground and in the air so they'll be tough to stop, while Purdy has been superb of late and has thrown 3+ TD passes in three of his last four outings.
Los Angeles Rams (6-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
Match Odds: 16/54.20 | 1/41.25
Points Spread: Ravens -7.5
Total Over/Under: 39.5
The Ravens have the best scoring defence in the league and also lead the NFL with 47 sacks, but this unheralded Rams offensive line has been the star of the team with Matthew Stafford only sacked 20 times this season.
If he has time then rookie receiver Puka Nacua will have chance to add to his stellar debut campaign, but for Baltimore it'll be a ground game that's yielded a joint-best 22 rushing TDs so far. LA have allowed 11 scored on the ground.
Lamar Jackson has seen his season end early the last two Decembers, but has a 13-3 record in the month and with the Ravens chasing the top seed in the AFC they should take the spoils at home here.
Houston Texans (7-5) @ New York Jets (4-8)
Match Odds: [4/9 | 9/52.80
Points Spread: Texans -5.5
Total Over/Under: 32.5
The Texans are bang in the play-off hunt after four wins in five while the jets have dropped five straight and despite a fine defence the Aaron Rodgers-less offence just looks lost.
CJ Stroud already has the Offensive Rookie of the Year award locked up and everything we've seen from him so far points to him being able pass this test on the road.
The Jets have only scored over 20 points once this season, and haven't reached double figures in three of the last five - that just won't get it done against Stroud.
New England Patriots (2-10) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
Match Odds: 9/43.25 | 4/111.36
Points Spread: Steelers -6
Total Over/Under: 30.5
It's one for the old school defensive football fans here going on the points spread of 30.5 being the lowest since 2006 - but that would've paid out in the last three Pats games and two of three for Pittsburgh.
New England's defence has incredibly allowed 10 points or less (26 total) in the last three games, but the offence is so bad they've lost all three! No other team has done that since 1938.
The Steelers lost to the 2-10 Cardinals last week and have Mitch Trubisky at QB instead of the injured Kenny Pickett in an offence that's averaged 12 points a game over their last three - two of which against not particualrly good defences.
So we've got two elite defensive units, one struggling offence and one downright awful - oh and two back-ups QBs under centre two - unders has to be the shout.