Chiefs won 26 straight in November and December
Josh Allen can slice up Pats again
Back 49ers for statement win over Miami
Buffalo Bills (8-3) @ New England Patriots (6-5)
Match Odds: 8/15 | 8/5
Spread: Bills -4
After two wins in Detroit the Bills head to Foxborough but they've had to fight for those victories and have had concerns over Josh Allen's health and his red zone interceptions that mean they've now been joined as 4/1 joint Super Bowl favourites by the Chiefs.
Allen's being asked to do a lot as he also leads the team in rushing yards and TDs, but he'll be stalked by NFL sack leader Matt Judon and if he hasn't got time to throw Allen will again be asked to do the heavy lifting all by himself.
The problem for New England is that Allen has carved this defence up regularly in the last couple of meetings, and for all of Bill Belichick's defensive prowess, his team was sliced open by the Vikings on Thursday and has also come up short every time they've played a decent QB.
Mac Jones had one of his better games against Minnesota but Buffalo offer a big upgrade in pass defence so the Pats will lean on the run, even without starting Damien Harris, and I just don't see them scoring enough points to keep up.
For a player prop bet here go Isaiah McKenzie over 30.5 receiving yards at 5/6 - he may be third choice but the Pats have largely shut down Stefon Diggs and McKenzie's role has been growing in this Bills offence.
Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) @ Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)
Match Odds: 3/4 | 11/10
Spread: Chiefs -2.5
The game of the week for me sees a huge AFC title rematch between two teams and two superstar QBs in fine form - as the Chiefs look to exact revenge on the Bengals for pipping them to a Super Bowl spot last season.
Patrick Mahomes is the odds-on MVP favourite after leading the team to five straight wins, but Joe Burrow has surged into top gear after a sticky start so expect the lofty points total to be breached in a toe-to-toe shootout.
The Chiefs have won 26 straight games in November and December and know how important that top seed can be, so I think they can just conjure up enough defence to extend that run and grab a huge victory.
Miami Dolphins (8-3) @ San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
Match Odds: 13/8 | 1/2
Spread: 49ers -3.5
It's five wins on the spin for the Fins but if you're being super critical none of those five teams currently have better than a 4-7 record, while the quality in San Francisco's four-game winning run is only slightly better.
So I suppose we'll find out more about these two after this game, as Tua Tagovailoa will get a proper examination travelling right across the country to face the league's meanest defence.
The passing defence of the Niners is weaker than the rush D though, so the gameplan is obvious, but Miami will also have to handle San Francisco's unique offence including Christian McCaffrey having a wider role with Elijah Mitchell injured.
I've backed the Niners to make a big run at halfway, so I'm rolling with them here to earn a big statement victory.