NFL

NFL Week 12 Tips: Steelers a sound bet & a QB double in Philly

Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts can both find the end zone as Buffalo face Philly

Paul Higham has yet more NFL tips for Week 12 with some huge games on the schedule for Sunday, including the Chiefs, Eagles and Ravens all in action.


We've had Thanksgiving and Black Friday but we've still got a regulation NFL Sunday slate of games to go at as well in this bumper week of pigskin action.

The Chiefs, Eagles and Ravens all face tough tests, while Bill Belichick could be drinking in the last chance saloon as his Patriots return off a bye...

NFL Week 12 Sunday schedule


Kansas City Chiefs (7-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders (5-6)

Match Odds: 2/91.22 | 10/34.33
Points Spread: Chiefs -8.5
Total Over/Under: 43

It was a sickener of a defeat for the Chiefs against the Eagles on Monday, punctuated by more dropped passes, mistakes and a third scoreless second half in a row - quite remarkable for an offence led by Patrick Mahomes.

But Mahomes has the most dropped pass yardage in the league and highest percentage of dropped passes through 10 games in a decade - they simply have to start catching passes if they want to make the most of Mahomes and this excellent KC defence.

Vegas have only allowed 13 points a game since changing head coaches, includig holding Miami to 20 last week (losing 20-17), and this looks like a similar story here so the 8.5 spread looks a bit lofty.

Travis Kelce 11 TDs against the Raiders - the most he's managed against any team - and he could well settle this with another one in a low scorer.

Back Kelce TD & Chiefs to win @ 11/102.11

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Buffalo Bills (6-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)

Match Odds: 11/82.38 | 6/101.60
Points Spread: Eagles -3
Total Over/Under: 48.5

The Bills have more points, yards and a much bigger points difference than the Eagles, but Philly have the won thing Buffalo really want - the ability to win close games.

All Buffalo's defeats have been by six points or less and if Josh Allen can end his run of seven straight games with an interception then they could give Philly a real game - possibly even pinch it.

D'Andre Swift and the Eagles run game holds the key, and with that I think they'll just get over the line - but the bet I like here is for both QBs to score rushing TDs.

Allen has found the end zone in seven of nine, and Hurts has scored in six games, and is automatic from a yard or two.

Back Allen & Hurts to score TDs @ 7/24.50

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Baltimore Ravens (8-3) @ LA Chargers (4-6)

Match Odds: 6/101.60 | 11/82.38
Points Spread: Ravens -3
Total Over/Under: 48.5

It's the type of trap game you could see the unpredictable Chargers winning, but you just can't back one of the worst defences in the league in almost every category going up against Lamar Jackson.

Baltimore also has one of the best defences in the NFL so the even the prospect of Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen being able to keep pace in a shootout seems unlikely.

Back Ravens to win & over 46.5pts @ 7/42.75

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New England Patriots (2-8) @ New York Giants (3-8)

Match Odds: 8/151.53 | 6/42.50
Points Spread: Patriots -3.5
Total Over/Under: 34.5

Where do you start with this one? The two lowest scorers in the league, with undrafted rookie QB Tommy DeVito starting for the Giants and Bill Belichick not even deciding who to start as his! Seemingly none of the options really appeal.

DeVito did manage to shift the ball against Washington, while the Pats run game is about the only part of the team functioning at a high level - and against a poor Giants run D that could count. But best to just stick to the unders here and move on.

Back under 34.5pts @ 9/10

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Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)

Match Odds: 17/20 | 19/201.95
Points Spread: Steelers -1.5
Total Over/Under: 35.5

The Steelers are an anomaly, the only team ever to be outgained in yards in every one of their first 10 games of a season and still hold a winning record - and it's all down to their defence.

Now that defence faces Jake Browning instead of Joe Burrow and their own QB Kenny Pickett has a new play caller and faces a leaky pass defence that gives him a great chance to throw multiple TDs for just the second time in his career.

Back the Steelers to win by 1-13pts @ 7/52.40

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Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3) @ Houston Texans (6-4)

Match Odds: 17/20 | 19/201.95
Points Spread: Jaguars -1.5
Total Over/Under: 47.5

A surprisingly important game where the Texans can tie the Jags at the top of the AFC South and hold the tiebreaker if they win - which they've done in 16 of the last 19 meetings.

Trevor Lawrence is coming off his best game of the season and rookie CJ Stroud remains an MVP dark horse after an exceptional start to his career - this one has all the makings of a really fun shootout.

Stroud has won a couple of those already so we'll back him to add another as a home underdog.

Back Texans to win & over 46.5pts @ 5/23.50

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