It is NFL Sunday and Neil Monnery reviews Week 10 for us and looks ahead to a slightly underwhelming Week 11 slate along with 10 prop bets to keep us all interested in the goings on around the NFL...
"The Patriots have no Rob Gronkowski who is out with a lung injury so I can't play him for the first time this season since Tom Brady's suspension was lifted. With the 49ers being pretty terrible though I still expect a big offensive output from the visiting team."
What we learned in Week 10...
First things first. We have to address the elephant in the room. What on Earth happened in the Thursday night game? That game was a sure fire high scoring affair but it turned out to be an agonising 23-20 game with under lines winning left, right and centre. I am still licking my wounds but we aren't here to be gun shy so the tips below are still aggressive.
On to the important matters, how great was it to have exciting games all over the shop on Sunday? The final two minutes in Dallas weren't easy for anyone who had Dallas to win with a 4.5pt handicap but as Ezekiel Elliott ran through the parted red sea to put the Cowboys back up on top to win by five, a huge sigh of relief was given. The Cowboys are a terrific team people and with Tony Romo clearly stating this is Dak Prescott's team, roll with Dallas to go far.
The Sunday night game was nearly as thrilling. It was a huge win for the Seahawks as they travelled across the country on a short week to take down the overwhelming Super Bowl favourite. The Patriots were 3.211/5 before losing that game and they've drifted to a crazy long 3.45 in that market. The exchange is still loving New England and I'm not surprised. They are still too short but they are the best team in football. The big mover though was those Seahawks who are now second favourites at 6.86/1
We also learned that finally the Jared Goff era would start this week in Los Angeles. Case Keenum did lead the Rams to victory but I type that in a very loose context. He threw for 165 but no scores in the 9-6 victory over the equally hapless New York Jets. My feeling is as the overall number one pick, if Goff was any good he'd already he starting but his over/under line on Sunday against the Dolphins is a paltry 185.5 yards. That is scarily tempting but after some considered thought, I'm not going there.
Last point of note is how about those Green Bay Packers? They can't run the ball, which forces Aaron Rodgers to throw on pretty every every single play. They have receivers who drop balls and that isn't even the worst part of this team. They have no defense. They gave up 47 points to Tennessee, 47! If you are giving up that to an average team like the Titans then boy do you suck. With no running game though it makes over lines on Rodgers and the receivers more attractive though (even if they drop a fair few balls).
The Fine Five
1. New England Patriots (No Change)
2. Dallas Cowboys (No Change)
3. Seattle Seahawks (+2)
4. Oakland Raiders (-1)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (NEW)
What to watch for in Week 11
Got to admit it isn't the strongest slate of games I've ever seen but I've liked watching Dallas this season and even though I don't think Baltimore can beat them, it will be another good test for that O-Line and Elliott because the Ravens are stout against the run. With the Cowboys secondary beat up I'm going to play at least one Ravens WR line expecting the odd big throw downfield from Joe Flacco.
The Patriots have no Rob Gronkowski who is out with a lung injury so I can't play him for the first time this season since Tom Brady's suspension was lifted. With the 49ers being pretty terrible though I still expect a big offensive output from the visiting team. So as I have done so many times this season I'll be loading up on Patriots bets. They have won far more than they've lost for me so far.
I like the look of the Seahawks/Eagles game as I want to see whether Seattle are really as good as we are starting to think they are. The Eagles have a fantastic D so this should be a good contest. I'm sidestepping this one from a betting standpoint though in terms of Sunday. For a long-term outlook though, if Seattle look good again we can start to think about a possible Seattle/Dallas NFC Championship game down the road.
Lastly I was going to play both the over lines for the two Quarterbacks in the Sunday night game but there is lots of wind forecast and that makes me nervous. If the weather looks like it will play ball both those lines are attractive.
After my bad night on Thursday I'm playing nine player lines straight up and down hoping to claw some of those 32 lost points back. I'll play just the one big price play and that once again is the Patriots at 13/5 to win by over 18.5.
6pt Back over 55.5 receiving yards for Eric Ebron in Detroit @ Jacksonville at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 39.5 rushing yards for Colin Kaepernick in New England @ San Francisco at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 61.5 receiving yards for Martellus Bennett in New England @ San Francisco at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 62.5 receiving yards for Julian Edelman in New England @ San Francisco at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 275.5 passing yards for Tom Brady in New England @ San Francisco at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 61.5 receiving yards for Delanie Walker in Tennessee @ Indianapolis at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 285.5 passing yards for Andrew Luck in Tennessee @ Indianapolis at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 25.5 receiving yards for Breshad Perriman in Baltimore @ Dallas at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 38.5 receiving yards for Jason Witten in Baltimore @ Dallas at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back New England winning with a 18.5pt handicap in New England @ San Francisco at 13/5 on the extended line on the Sportsbook
Neil Monnery NFL P/L
Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts
Staked - 389pts
Returned - 366.19pts
P&L - -22.81pts