NFL Week 11 Tips: Count on the Cowboys; Chiefs to pinch Super Bowl rematch

The Chiefs host the Eagles in a Super Bowl rematch on Monday
The Chiefs host the Eagles in a Super Bowl rematch on Monday

Paul Higham is back with his NFL tips for a cracking Week 11 with some huge match-ups including a Super Bowl rematch...


What a week it was in the NFL last week with the most dramatic Sundayin history seeing a record five games settled with the very last kick of the match.

And on Monday Night Football there was another walk-off win that saw Buffalo's play-off chances take a huge hit.

This week we've got some five-star match-ups from start to finish, and what a finish it is as well as we've got a Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles taking place on Monday Night Football.

NFL Week 11 Schedule


Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) @ Cleveland Browns (6-3)

Match Odds: 11/102.11 | 3/4
Points Spread: Browns -2.5
Total Over/Under: 34.5

After the euphoria of an epic comeback win in Baltimore, the Browns have been brought back down to earth wiith a huge bump after losing star QB Deshaun Watson for the rest of the season.

Watson was the architect of that comeback after Cleveland's top-ranked defence, and although back-up PJ Walker was under centre for wins over the 49ers and Colts there's a huge drop-off in talent - and should result is a big surge in Cleveland running the ball.

Pittsburgh have sneaked into a string position thanks mainly to their defence - only one of their six wins has come with them allowing 20+ points, and that was against the Browns!

Nothing surprises you in the AFC North, either team can win this one, but it would be a surprise to see a shootout.

Back under 34.5 total points @ 9/10

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Arizona Cardinals (2-8) @ Houston Texans (5-4)

Match Odds: 8/52.60 | 1/21.50
Points Spread: Texans 4.5
Totals Over/Under: 47.5

Don't look now, but the Texans are in the playoff hunt and their uber-talented rookie QB CJ Stroud is now a 20/121.00 shot for MVP. And if he continues his level of play those odds will tumble.

Beating the Bengals in the Jungle was huge for this young Texans team, but with Kyler Murray back for Arizona the Cards won't be the pushover they have been at times.

Back Texans to win & over 47.5pts @ 15/82.88

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Dallas Cowboys (6-3) @ Carolina Panthers (1-8)

Match Odds: 2/111.18 | 4/15.00
Points Spread: Cowboys -10.5
Total Over/Under: 41.5

Dallas are huge favourites here but if you've seen them at all over the last few years you know that's a really hard line for you to trust them to deliver on.

Carolina have been beaten by that spread four times this season and Dallas have put up 40+ points in two of their last three - both admittedly indoors at home.

The way Dak Prescott is playing though they'll surely win and score a few points in the process.

Back Cowboys to win & over 41.5pts @ 11/102.11

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Chicago Bears (3-7) @ Detroit Lions (7-2)

Match Odds: 29/10 | 1/41.25
Points Spread: Lions -7.5
Total Over/Under: 47.5

Detroit has struggled to cover running QBs so Justin Fields may have some joy, but the Lions will still win a seventh in a row against divisional rivals Chicago.

Field's thumb may make too many throws to DJ Moore difficult, but Jared Goff will have no problems carving up this Bears secondary, especially if Jahmyr Gibbs scores for a fourth game running and the Lions run game opens up the play-action.

Back Gibbs to score & Lions to win @ 1/12.00

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Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)

Match Odds: 5/42.25 | 13/20
Points Spread: Chiefs -2.5
Total Over/Under: 45.5

This is the ninth time we've had a Super Bowl rematch in the following season, with the champs 6-2 so far - and with both sides top their conferences and coming off bye weeks then this should be an absolute classic.

This maybe not a bonanza of points like the Super Bowl given Philly are pretty tough defensively and KC are vastly improved - second in the league in scoring defence in fact.

The Chiefs offence hasn't been clicking but Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes - he's thrown two TD passes in six games and still has Travis Kelce - and Philly give up plenty to opposing receivers.

Back Chiefs to beat the Eagles by 1-10pts @ 13/82.63

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Jalen Hurts and the Eagles' run game will be tough to stop though and you've got to believe that this will be a close game going right down to the wire - but it's at Arrowhead and Andy Reid is 21-3 coming off a bye week.

That's enough to back the hosts to pinch it.

In terms of scorers, obviously Kelce is the main man and if you stop him then you slow this entire offence down - but knowing about him and stopping him is a different story.

He'll likely score at 8/111.73 but one to watch for the Chiefs is Jerrick McKinnon, who has scored three TDs and is often a game breaker in close ones and is a big price at 9/25.50 to find the end zone.

For the Eagles, Hurts has had time to rest his knee and anywhere in the red zone he's a danger if running at full speed. Thanks to the 'tush push' he's unstoppable from a yard out too so can score himself at 11/102.11. Together they're a big-priced double.

Back McKinnon & Hurts anytime TD scorers @ 11/112.00

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