NFL Betting: What have we learned going into Week 10?

The return of Jimmy Graham as a big time offensive threat is great for the Seahawks
The return of Jimmy Graham as a big time offensive threat is great for the Seahawks

With week 10 in the NFL upon us, Neil Monnery is here to review week nine and give us five prop bets along with three extended line tips to keep us on our toes during the action tonight...

'The Minnesota Vikings have lost three straight after opening the season 5-0 and Sunday's loss was hard to take. They look like a team bereft of ideas on offense and are exposing their defense to too much time on the field of play.'

What we learned in Week 9...


We have to start in Oakland where the Raiders ran right through the Denver Broncos and firmly put themselves in the race to lose to New England in the AFC Title Game. Latavius Murray ran for 114 yards and three scores in the 30-20 victory, which wasn't nearly as close as the final score suggests. I still think Denver when fully healthy are a dangerous team but that offense is totally stagnating. Oakland though go into their bye week 7-2 and a 10.09/1 shot to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl...

A 35-31 victory over the Buffalo Bills doesn't seem worthy of note for a team like the Seattle Seahawks but I was incredibly impressed with both Russell Wilson and Jimmy Graham. The QB looked healthy and was able to scramble and throw a strong deep ball. Also seeing Graham catching eight passes, two great TDs and running the seam route free all night long was very encouraging. With Dallas being the only genuinely impressive team in the NFC so far, Seattle are certainly in the mix.

The Minnesota Vikings have lost three straight after opening the season 5-0 and Sunday's loss was hard to take. They look like a team bereft of ideas on offense and are exposing their defense to too much time on the field of play. A similar situation to Denver thinking about it. I'm pretty much ignoring the Vikings as a serious contender at this point.

Lastly I know most of my betting.betfair.com NFL colleagues really rate the Green Bay Packers. I'm still not seeing it. They have no running game of note and Aaron Rodgers keeps missing wide open receivers. A 31-26 home loss to the Colts just confirms my thoughts on them, they are a 9-7 team who will struggle to beat anyone of note unless either they miraculously get a running game or Rodgers starts playing up to the level to which we have become accustomed.

The Fine Five


1. New England Patriots (No Change)
2. Dallas Cowboys (+1)
3. Oakland Raiders (+2)
4. Atlanta Falcons (No Change)
5. Seattle Seahawks (NEW)


What to watch for in Week 10


We start with the best game of the NFL season so far as Seattle travel into New England in the Sunday night game. This is a repeat of Super Bowl XLIX, which had arguably the second best ending of any SB (after XXXIV). So revenge is a key factor but for New England, a decisive victory here will clamp down on any notion that they aren't by far the best team in football. Bet on Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski on their over/under lines.

You can read Neil Harvey's full Seattle @ New England Betting Preview behind the link.

In the early window we have three games that will tell us a lot. Can Denver find some offensive cohesion in New Orleans? If not then I will become increasingly concerned for them. Carolina are starting to find their mojo but face a stiff opponent in Kansas City. Also Atlanta are getting 2.5pts in Philly. Are Atlanta underrated or are the bookies under the Wentzylvania spell?

In the late window Dallas are also getting 2.5pts on the road. I've banged on about how impressed I've been with the Cowboys all season long but still they are getting no respect. Another big game for them today and the price on them to win outright is too long. Heck, at 12/5 to win with a 4.5pt handicap on the Sportsbook, I smell value right there.

This week I'm playing five player prop bets and three big priced results on the extended spread lines...


Recommended Bets

6pt Back over 69.5 receiving yards for Rob Gronkowski in Seattle @ New England at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 61.5 receiving yards for Jimmy Graham in Seattle @ New England at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 66.5 rushing yards for LeGarrette Blount in Seattle @ New England at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 45.5 receiving yards for Zach Ertz in Atlanta @ Philadelphia at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 63.5 receiving yards for Larry Fitzgerald in San Francisco @ Arizona at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back Atlanta to beat Philadelphia with a 6.5pt handicap at 12/5 on the extended line on the Sportsbook
3pt Back Dallas to beat Pittsburgh with a 4.5pt handicap at 12/5 on the extended line on the Sportsbook
3pt Back Washington to beat Minnesota with a 7.5pt handicap at 13/5 on the extended line on the Sportsbook

Neil Monnery NFL P/L

2015:

Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts

2016:
Staked - 318pts
Returned - 322.99pts
P&L - +4.99pts

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