NFL Week Nine Betting Preview: Cowboys a good bet despite Elliott absence

Mike Carlson
10 November 2017

Mike believes the Dallas Cowboys are an excellent bet +3 at the Atlanta Falcons

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

There's a big name missing for the Cowboys this weekend but that hasn't stopped Mike Carlson making Dallas his best bet as he previews some of Sunday's action in Week 10 of the NFL...

"I like the Cowboys straight up, getting three is the gravy."

Best Bet: Dallas +3 at 21/20 @ Atlanta

The most fascinating game in week 10 of the NFL schedule is probably the Dallas Cowboys visit to Atlanta. You can see two effects operating almost simultaneously: one is the bandwagon arising after Dallas' impressive win over Kansas City, the other is the star power effect of Ezekiel Elliott finally facing the implementation of a six-game suspension for violating the league's domestic violence policy.

Elliott's lawyers have run out of options, but the NFL has pursued every appeal, because the case is not so much about Elliot's action (remember, no charges were ever filed and the NFL's own investigator recommended no punishment by the league) as it is maintaining commissioner Roger Goodell's right to impose whatever sanctions he decides. Which is why Cowboys' owner Jerry Jones is busy threatening to sue all the owners who sit on the compensation committee that is about to extend the commissioner's contract through 2024. Goodell currently takes home upward of $30 million per year, more than even Matt Stafford.

I mention this not because I'm advising on better an over/under on the new deal, nor on Elliott's time off, but because Elliott's absence may be part of the reason the Cowboys are 3-point dogs on the road in Atlanta, and why I like that bet.

Best Bet: Dallas +3 at 21/20 @ Atlanta

The Falcons, Super Bowl losers last year, have basically all the pieces back from that team, but are struggling on both sides of the ball. Although their defense played very well down the stretch in 2016, and for a half against the Patriots, their offense really needed to be operating at its near 30 points per game to win.

I wrote before the Super Bowl the Pats would win if they could hold the Falcons' O under 28 points; remember Atlanta's offense got only 21 in that game. You remember Matt Ryan's struggles with Kyle Shanahan's offense in their first year together? Opinion in Atlanta seems divided as to whether it's a similar problem with new coordinator Steve Sarkisian or whether it's just that Sark is a lousy coordinator. Either way, the Falcons are mis-firing on O, and what a different game their loss to Carolina last week would have been had Ryan not overthrown an open Julio Jones and lost one TD, and Jones later dropped a wide open TD.

Meanwhwile, Dallas will miss Elliott, but not as much as it seems because they will be able to adjust to a pass heavy game if they have to. Sean Lee is healthy and playing at All-Pro level in the middle of their D, and they can rush the passer. I don't think the Falcons like their new stadium that much either. I like the Cowboys straight up, getting three is the gravy.

Value Bet: San Francisco +2.5 at 21/10 v New York Giants

Kyle Shanahan's offense is so complicated (at least its nomenclature) that new acquisition Jimmy Garroppolo is supposedly not going to start this week. They appear to be thinking he'll have a bye week next week than make his debut against the Seahawks. Hah!

I am guessing Jimmy G makes his debut at halftime of this one, after rookie CJ Beathard discovers big boy defense is tough. BUT, I think the Niners will be able to make some plays against the Giants' offense, and at home getting 2.5 might be good for the win.

Outside Bet: Detroit -11 at 21/20 v Cleveland

Eleven is a lot of points, but this is the Browns, and the Lions are coming off a couple of good offensive performances in a row.

Pittsburgh -10 at even money at Indianapolis is another big spread against a lousy team I might be willing to take a risk on, because the Steelers have had a bye week to prepare, and their D might give Jacoby Brissett a tougher time than Houston's did last week.

They're unlikely to allow TY Hilton to run amok in their secondary. I think Over 45 at 10/11 might be vulnerable too.