NFL Week One Tips: The Giants and Texans set to score upset wins

New York Giants Quarterback Eli Manning
Eli Manning has plenty of offensive weapons to use this Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars

The waiting is finally over. The reigning Super Bowl champs found a way to hold off Atlanta on Thursday night but what about the other 15 games? Neil Monnery brings us his tip sheet for the week...

This weeks treble comes from the over/under lines as I'm going over 49.5 in New Orleans, over 50.5 in New England and over 42.5 in Denver. This currently is priced up at 7.22 on the SBK.

The big games of the week

Outside of Houston @ New England (which I'll get to later) the biggest game of the Sunday early window is in New York where Saquon Barkley will make his eagerly awaited debut. The number two overall pick has come into the league with a burgeoning reputation. His jersey was the most sold not only among rookies but all players throughout the off season.

His first game comes against the fierce Jacksonville Jaguars defense. Talk about a tough ask right out of the box. Odell Beckham Jnr. has that hefty new contract in his back pocket to support him in stretching the field but Jalen Ramsey will feel confident he can shut the star WR out.

This has a low scoring affair written all over it and I like the Jags long-term but not here. They have been hyped up and I think too many of their players are buying into it. The aforementioned Ramsey in particular. So I have the Giants straight up at 13/10 and the under 43.5pt mark at 19/20.

The other massive Sunday game comes from the Twin Cities. Jimmy Garoppolo has yet to lose as a starting QB in the NFL. This ends on Sunday when Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings light it up and win big. The home side are destructive defensively and their new highly paid main man will get the ball out to Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen all night long. They are 17/10 win by 14+

Acca of the week

This weeks treble comes from the over/under lines as I'm going over 49.5 in New Orleans, over 50.5 in New England and over 42.5 in Denver. This currently is priced up at 7.22 on the SBK.

Going over in the first two seems pretty solid to me and the number is so low in Mile High that you are being heavily cajoled into it. Case Keenum is going to be the best QB they've had since the ghost of Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson can always get things done. Both sides have a recent history of fielding great defenses but they are shells of their recent peaks.


My underdog special this week comes from New England where the reigning AFC Champions are giving six points to the Houston Texans. Tom Brady is still the master but travelling up to the north east in September is very different than doing so when the weather comes in. It has been unusually warm along the eastern seaboard and that will play into the visitors hands.

I'm all in on Houston being a sneaky good Super Bowl pick. Deshaun Watson is healthy as are Whitney Mercilus and J.J. Watt. All three missed significant time last year and are in the upper echelons at their respective positions. This feels like a chance to ring a big shock and Houston are 12/5 to win this one straight up on the Sportsbook.

The long-shot of the week

Sometimes you sit there looking at the markets hoping to turn a pound or two into enough money to treat yourself to something from your wish list. So each week I'll scour the Sportsbook to find a 100/1+ shot that should be much shorter.

This week I'm going to the Saints/Buccaneers encounter in the Big Easy. Drew Brees is one of the finest Quarterbacks in the business and his side are renowned for being involved in high-scoring shootouts. If you think that trend could continue then why not have a dabble at both teams to score three or more TDs in each half at 150/1? Seems a very good price for something that is likely to happen in at least one Saints game this year. The 2+ TD in each half is also good value at 22/1.

The full picks

Each week I'll pick every game bar the Thursday game according to their handicap on the SBK at the time of writing (home team in caps):

BALTIMORE (-7.5) over Buffalo
MIAMI (+1) over Tennessee
Tampa Bay (+9.5) over NEW ORLEANS
Houston (+6) over NEW ENGLAND
Cincinnati (+2.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
Pittsburgh (-4) over CLEVELAND
NEW YORK (-3) over Jacksonville
MINNESOTA (-6.5) over San Francisco
LOS ANGELES (-3.5) over Kansas City
CAROLINA (-2.5) over Dallas
ARIZONA (-1) over Washington
DENVER (-3) over Seattle
Chicago (-7.5) over GREEN BAY
DETROIT (-6.5) over New York
Los Angeles (-4) over OAKLAND

Neil Monnery,

Read past articles