NFL Tipsheet: Mini previews and recommended bets for Week 9 fixtures

Luca Bercelli
04 November 2015

Will Jason Pierre-Paul pull his finger out?

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Week nine in the NFL has a decidedly devilish look to it but Luca Bercelli hopes to continue banging out the winners...

"New York...should score enough to waltz out of Raymond James Stadium with win number five"

Recommended Bet
Back the New York Giants to win @ 1.84/5

Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers Sunday, 18:00

The collective betting brain has this one down as a close contest and I'm inclined to agree. If the clash had happened two weeks ago the Packers would be much stronger favourites but their defeat at the hands of the Denver D, with a sprinkling of Pick Six Peyton, has put their achievements in perspective. Good...yes, but not great. There's one particular area that would worry me if I was a Packers' fan and that's their dodgy run-defence taking on the league's top-ranked rushing attack. With a fine margin between success or failure this could sway the pendulum. I think it will and with Superman Cam finally playing to his full potential, another W will take his side to 8-0 and make current Superbowl odds of 14.5 seem like a wee bit of value.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets Sunday, 18:00

The Jets v the Raiders looked more like an episode of 24 Hours in A&E last weekend as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith and Brandon Marshall all got crocked at one stage or another. Add to the mix the fact that offensive line linchpin Nick Mangold was already out and you'll appreciate how miserable Gang Green were in a dispiriting defeat. Depth at the quarterback position has never been New York's strong suit so even if third stringer Bryce Petty gets thrust into action, it's no biggee, he's not going to be much worse than Pinky and Perky. What was more worrying for the Jets was their inability to create pressure on the opposing quarterback and the rumblings from some defensive players publicly criticising others for 'loafing'. New coach Todd Bowles will have to earn his corn this week and I'm convinced he'll have his defence back to their best. They won't need to be A1 to beat the Big Cats but with a return to the Ground and Pound and concentration levels back up, the Jets should cover the spread. A template for defeating the Jets has been formulated; unfortunately for Jacksonville, they don't have the personnel to employ it.

Recommended Bet
Back the New York Jets -7.5pts @ 2.01/1

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Sunday, 18:00

The Bills just have to win this one or else Rex Ryan will soon be snacking his way to the soup kitchen and negotiating his severance package. Never has one man's mouth (okay, it's a dead heat with Fraudley) promised so much and delivered so little; but to be fair, injuries have decimated Buffalo, and the key one to QB Tyrod Taylor has been compounded by the limitations of his back up E.J. Manuel. T-Mobile (I nicked that one) is rumoured to be back in action this week, and if he is the Cameron Wake-less Fins could sink to sole ownership of last place in the AFC East. How do they like their new coach now?

Recommended Bet
Back the Buffalo Bills to win @ 1.728/11

Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday, 18:00

Big Ben almost got it done in last week's big divisional match-up versus the Bengals, but as predicted he was a tad rusty and decidedly sluggish. He should come on for the run but the loss of Le'Veon Bell doesn't help and nor does facing a red-hot Oakland outfit. They outplayed and outfought the Jets last week and the most impressive feature of their performance was the lightning speed of their defensive front. Neither of the Geno/Fitz two-headed cuddly toy had any time to think in the pocket, and the hitherto feared Chris Ivory was snuffed out completely. Yes New York were sub-par, but the thought of those defensive linemen getting anywhere near the HMS Ark Royal (or Big Ben as he's commonly known), shivers me timbers. Oakland have a huge chance with the points.

Recommended Bet
Back the Oakland Raiders +4.5pts @ 2.01/1

St Louis Rams @ Minnesota Vikings Sunday, 18:00

I'm a big fan of Teddy (Bridgewater) but he's become a bit too steady over recent weeks. It's probably nothing to do with him and everything to do with coach Mike Zimmer, but I'm worried about what the plan is when a slice of catch-up is required. The Vikes are definitely solid all round and I've been with them all season, but I just can't stay loyal when Todd Gurley rolls into town. My new joint favourite player in the whole league (along with OBJ), has been unstoppable in recent weeks and could even eclipse the great Adrian Peterson in this clash of the battering rams. This should be a tight affair and a keeper for running-back afficionados; I just have to go with T.G. in his quest to get from A to B quicker than A.P.

Recommended bet
Back the St Louis Rams to win @ 2.186/5

Tennessee Titans v New Orleans Saints Sunday, 18:00

The Shite-ans have got rid of head coach Ken Wisenhunt and replaced him with Mike Mularkey. That's a bit like replacing Tim Sherwood with Dick Advocaat...totally pointless, and basically a move designed purely to con fans into thinking that management is doing something to revive the ailing patient. Well, it's a feeble move and highly likely to have zero influence on the season. Shame, because Tennessee do have a goodish defence, and will have a decent quarterback once Mariota has more game-time under his belt. As things stand, the 2016 draft can't come quickly enough as the Saints, looking for their fourth W in a row, will be chalking it up before half time.

Washington Redskins @ New England Patriots Sunday, 18:00

New England seem to be operating at a different level to the rest of the league at the moment and reluctantly, since I'm sick of them, I'll be riding the Pats bus until it gets a flat tyre, which doesn't seem likely to be any time soon. They just seem to have so many different ways to win, have a much better defence than usual, and have a fully fit and firing freak show, otherwise known as the Gronk. I rate the Skins higher than most people, but they could get embarrassed here. I'm with the Pats on the handicap to smallish stakes.

Recommended Bet
Back the New England Patriots -14.5pts @ 2.111/10

Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers Sunday, 21:05

It's all change down in the Bay area with CK Maxx consigned to bench-warming duties (those omnipresent headphones should come in handy) after gradually getting worse as the season has progressed. That's a seismic shift for an organisation that had pretty much regarded the phenom as the second coming, and was planning a long future with him at the helm. For now, it's back to earth with a bang; handing the QB job over to 5-22 Blaine (not the) Main Man Gabbert is not far off sticking a pole on the half way line and running a great big white flag up it with bells on. I want to give the Blaine Man a squeak, especially with the Falcons enduring a sticky spell and with injuries on defence. I want to but I can't, since with only four points to play with I'm more inclined to give than receive.

Recommended Bet
Back the Atlanta Falcons -4.5pts @ 1.981/1

New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday,21:25

I wish I was the quarterback of the New York Giants. Get the ball; check, chuck it as far as you can; check, then watch Odell Beckham Jr pluck it out of the air and swerve past half the opposing team into the endzone; check, repeat as and when needed; checkmate. Simples. Now where's my 10m bucks a year? Okay, so back to the real world of trying to earn some beer money by doing sod all apart from watching sport; where are my Bitcoins going? They are going on Big Blue, my friends; the reasoning being that OBJ is totally unplayable and that Jason Pierre-Paul might pull his finger out (I think he's got one left) and add some dynamism to a Giants' D that desperately needs it. New York might not score 49 as they did last week, but they should score enough to waltz out of Raymond James Stadium with win number five.

Recommended Bet
Back the New York Giants to win @ 1.855/6

Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday, 21:25

Are the cows coming home? Good...because I'm still opposing the Denver Broncos and will do all the way until they're back in the milking shed. Okay, so even I had to be impressed by the crushing win over Green Bay; hell, Pick Six Peyton only threw one interception! He might throw more against the nags, and surely the Denver D can't play lights out all season. I never lost faith in Andrew the Answer Luck and if you did, I'm banning you from Facebook for a month. Indy face a tough task (especially if T.Y. Hilton is forced to sit this one out), but I've got a feeling in my bones, and on this occasion, statistical analysis will just have to play second fiddle to mindless superstition. Fingers crossed the points are good enough.

Recommended Bet
Back the Indianapolis Colts +5.5pts @ 1.910/11

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Monday, 01:30

Also known as the Also-Ran Bowl, this promises to be a snore-a-minute on the field and an episode of Jerry Springer off it. Greg Hardy gets to sulk his way through another 60 minutes and Dez (just call me Ghandi) Bryant hopefully becomes more of a factor for Matt Cassel. I don't think I've known a team more hyped than the Eagles, but the smoke, mirrors and sideline idiot boards are losing their impact as the weeks roll on. Flashes of brilliance may happen, but with Bradford, (or god forbid Sanchez) pulling the strings the 'Boys should keep it close. Don't press record but do back +2.5.

Recommended Bet
Back the Dallas Cowboys +2.5pts @ 2.0621/20