Luca Bercelli continues to post good numbers - last week's 11 selections produced seven winners and a push...
"...with the perfect opponent in the Raiders to rediscover winning ways, I'm predicting a run of Ws for San Diego starting right now"
Back the San Diego Chargers -4.0pts @ 2.01/1
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, 13:30
The Bills should be pleased to get away from all the negativity that has been surrounding them back home and get down to business at Wembley. Defensive players criticising a defensively-minded head coach, best wider receiver Sammy Watkins injured, Percy Harvin absent for 'mysterious personal reasons', no five-ply toilet paper at the hotel; the list of set-backs is seemingly endless. Luckily for Buffalo, perennial punchbags the Jacksonville Jaguars will be lining up on the opposite side of the field. They sorely missed running back T.J. Yeldon against the Texans last week, and to be honest, if he's back this could be quite close. Without him, the Jags are doomed. A loss for Buffalo here spells the beginning of the end for Rex Ryan, so expect some desperation stuff which could play into the hands of Jacksonville. Keep an eye on the injury report and go with T.J. if he gets the start.
Back the Jacksonville Jaguars +4.0pts @ 2.111/10
Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans Sunday, 17:00
The Falcons didn't just have a bad day at the office last week v the the Saints; it was more like they crashed into the bosses' car, lost the company's biggest contract and burnt down the canteen all before lunchtime. Yes, they had a shocker but can get right back on track in Tennessee against a struggling Titans team that could be fronting up minus the Future of the Franchise and offensive spark Marcus Mariota. This could very well be a blow-out so I'm surprised to see such a small handicap on offer. I'll be snaffling up the Falcons -4.0pts and I suggest you do the same.
Back the Atlanta Falcons -4.0pts @ 1.910/11
Cleveland Browns @ St Louis Rams Sunday, 17:00
He might have a feminine sounding name but St Louis running back Todd (I'm not) Gurley is 100% testosterone-filled human battering ram. What a pick-up in the draft he has already proved to be. He's that rare commodity, a power back with the feet of a ballerina who has rushed for 300 yards in two games. Compare that with the combined 106 yards for running backs Benny Cunningham and Tre Mason for the whole season. The league will have woken up to the rookie in a big way, but if one team is not equipped to stop this new Phenom it's the Browns. They rank stone cold last in defence against the run and must be dreading this match-up, despite the fact that they've been playing well for the most part without winning. Take the handicap, sit back and get out the record book for this one - it might need some extensive updating.
Back the St Louis Rams -4.5pts @ 1.910/11
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins Sunday, 17:00
So the Fish kicked off a new era with a win for their new coach Dan Campbell versus the Terrible Titans. It could be a false dawn for Miami fans despite the 38-10 scoreline, because if you take Cameron Wake and Jarvis Landry out of that line-up, there's very little else to get excited about down in Florida. Any team that can nullify those two playmakers are in with a big shout. Up next are the Texans who have disappointed me week after week this season but showed signs of life at last in their defeat of the Jags last time out. Brain Hoyer and Arian Foster looked good in tandem and if they both bring their A-games this could be a tight affair. I made the Fins a field goal-favourite so with five points on offer, it has to be the ten-gallon hat brigade.
Back the Houston Texans +5.0pts @ 1.910/11
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Sunday, 17:00
This game does not set the pulse racing: in fact it's got about as much chance of featuring as game of the week as Craig Joubert has of popping up on Nicola Sturgeon's Christmas list. Still, someone's got to walk away with the W, and I'm struggling to decide whether it'll be mediocre Minnesota or 'back from the dead' Detroit. The latter finally posted a win on the board last week and should have an extra bounce in their step now that Megatron is back in business and Stafford has emerged from the slump of all slumps. The unders looks tempting here but I'm going to stick with the Vikes. They're reliable, if a tad boring, but as we all know by now, there's nothing boring about Greenbacks.
Back the Minnesota Vikings to win @ 1.758/11
New Orleans Saints @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday, 17:00
Unlike the previous fixture, this one promises to be a corker with two (okay one and a half) offensive powerhouses trying to outscore each other. One knucklehead play aside, the Colts put up a good show against the Patriots last week and should be able to take care of the revitalised Saints. Andrew Luck had his normal excellent game and he should be firmly back in the groove for this one despite the fact that Rob Ryan's defence looked frisky to say the least in the Saints' win against the Falcons. I fancy the Colts to win, but New Orleans have some momentum and a reason to play hard (assistant head coach Joe Vitt was hospitalised last weekend after taking on a pair of car thieves), so they could keep it close. It's the points for me.
Back the New Orleans Saints +5pts @ 1.8910/11
New York Jets @ New England Patriots Sunday, 17:00
This is a huge game that will go a long way to determine who wins the AFC East. The bookies, pundits, heck even the lollipop lady down my street all think this is going to be a blowout for the Pats. Not me, I think the Jets are pretty well matched up with New England, and seeing as how Darrelle Revis was actually playing for the enemy two years ago, a serious insight into their strengths, weaknesses, and methods should be sitting right in front of Todd Bowles as he composes his battle plan. Sheldon Richardson looked a little rusty in the Jets' defensive line in the win against the Redskins but that will have sharpened him up for this one, and he should cause Tom Brady to dust off the old Audley Harrison impression. If his supply line to the Gronk can be cut off, the Jets have a realistic shout. With an eight point start, this is maximum bet material.
Back the New York Jets +8.5 @ 1.9520/21
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, 17:00
Landry who? Yes that's the question we were all asking ourselves when Mick Vick got injured last week and was replaced by back-up to the back-up Landry Jones. The Jones kid actually did okay, in fact he kick-started a stuttering offence, and his sterling efforts seem to have landed him the job of starting QB for one week at least. The return of marvellous Martavis Bryant also boosted the Steelers - he rampaged for over 100 yards and two touchdowns in his first game this season; and his addition to an already potent offence makes this a tough match-up for the Chiefs. It is already a season to forget for the Arrowhead crew and despite the fact that their losses have been, for the most part, narrow ones, they are in a downward spiral and easily opposed here.
Back the Pittsburgh Steelers @ best available price
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins Sunday, 17:00
Despite their poor records, I'm quite positive about these two teams, I don't think either of them are as bad as most people think. Tampa are still finding their way with rookie quarterback Jameis Winston and I like him in spite of his low passer-rating; sometimes you have to look beyond the bare stats. I definitely see him having a decent career, and with the muscle hamster Doug Martin in sensational form this transitional season could become juicy for the Bucs before it ends. Washington has been playing better than its critical press would suggest. In its last three games the Skins have played good opposition, winning one and keeping it close against the Jets and Atlanta (no mean feat). However, the outside pressure on them to perform is astronomical compared to the low expectations over in Tampa, and for that reason I don't see them running away with this one. It'll be tight (possibly an overtime play), but I'll take the Bucs with the points.
Back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5pts @ 1.910/11
Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers Sunday 20:05
If the Chargers want to get their season rumbling they have to win this game and I'm pretty confident they will. Philip 'old man' Rivers is on fire; he's on course for a squillion yards passing this year, but that will all mean nothing without enough wins to make the play-offs. A couple of recent heartbreaking, last-minute losses will have to be banished from the memory banks in order to stop the slip-ups becoming a habit. The fact that the Bolts couldn't get into Green Bay's endzone after a first down on the three yard line with 40 seconds to go will have left more mental scars than I picked up after being forced to watch 15 minutes of Strictly Come Smiling. Time to move on, and with the perfect opponent in the Raiders to rediscover winning ways, I'm predicting a run of Ws for San Diego starting right now.
Back the San Diego Chargers -4.0pts @ 2.01/1
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Sunday, 20:25
The Giants laid an elephant bird-sized egg on MNF versus the floundering Eagles earlier in the week, but I'm still a fan of the side who have Eli flying the flag for Mrs Manning, (unlike Pick-Six Peyton who should take the gold watch now and get out of Dodge). I was all ready to get stuck into New York's second best team until I saw the injury report and Jason Witten's stats against them. New York's gold-plated receiver OBJ is battling with an injury, as are defensive stalwarts Prince Amukamara, Trumaine McBride and Trevin Wade. This will help Dallas' new quarterback Matt Cassel to ease his way back into the line up after a bye week, and with Witten to aim at (seven TD's in his last five games v New York), Dallas should be able to stop the bleeding. Their 3.5pts head-start seals the deal.
Back the Dallas Cowboys +3.5pts @ 1.910/11