Carolina at Atlanta: Sunday, 18:00
Just before you think Atlanta have discovered a one-two-punch running game, they come up against the Carolina curtain to really test their mettle. Last year's Super Bowl chumps look a long way from this year's Super Bowl champs but Cam Newton and Co can get their season back on line here against a susceptible Falcons' D in a crucial battle for head-to-head supremacy in the NFC South.
Back Carolina to win on the Moneyline @ 1.738/11 or better
Oakland at Baltimore: Sunday, 18:00
To my jaundiced eye, Baltimore have ridden their luck to 3-0, and Joe Flacco still needs some more reps before his left knee returns to full strength. The Raiders also strike me as a team who flatter to later deceive, as Derek Carr struggles to deliver on his rookie promise. This could be tight and uninspiring, which makes being on the right side of a field goal a big number worth embracing.
Back Oakland (+3.5pts) @ 1.9110/11 or better
Detroit at Chicago: Sunday, 18:00
A scoring shootout is on the cards as gunslingers Matt Stafford (24 TDs and a trio of picks in his past three games) and Jay Cutler attempt to restore their cannon arms and flagging reps in what feels like a proverbial must-win game, as early as Week 4. The Bears have the homefield advantage but are missing Kyle Fuller in their leaky secondary.
Back Over 46.5 Total Points @ 1.9520/21 or better
Tennessee at Houston: Sunday, 18:00
JJ Watt is absent here, and could be out for the remainder of the season, as his back injury appears even worse than originally feared. At the risk of entering a state-the-obvious competition, this is a huge blow to the Texans, even in a soft division. Still, no team is a one-man outfit, and perhaps they can bounce back from their New England shut-out against an ineffectual Tennessee team struggling to hit their stride under second-season Marcus Mariota. Preferring patience and sparing the deep ball could see the Titans home.
Back Tennessee on the Moneyline @ 2.93 or better
Seattle at New York Jets: Sunday, 18:00
A crack receiving crew of Jets flyers go up against the dreaded Legion of Boom in the week's most colourful clash of contrasts. Ryan Fitzpatrick desperately needs to atone for his six-pick performance last week, however, and Seattle should definitely trim his woolly thinking. Surely he can't be that bad again, while Russell Wilson is short of peak fitness for the Hawks. The Jets edge home for a much-needed win that re-establishes Fitzy as a franchise QB.
Back New York Jets to win on the Moneyline @ 2.1211/10 or better
Buffalo at New England: Sunday, 18:00
Buffalo finally stepped up at home over Arizona and must now repeat the magic on the road to Fortress Foxborough. That's a harder task. Especially since the Pats are do very nicely thank you in the absence of Tom Brady (whisper it: an overrated GOAT?!) and the continued niggles of Rob Gronkowski. Jimmy Garoppolo gets the nod at QB tonight, but Buffalo look balanced on both of the ball, and should give the stand-in a torrid night on a stand-out start. Assuming Arizona aren't a house of Cards this year (pretty sure they're not) Rex Ryan could finally go to the Bill Belichick Ball in a belated Cinderfella story.
Back Buffalo (+5.5pts) to win @ 2.0811/10 or better
Cleveland at Washington: Sunday, 18:00
Cleveland's first-choice squad are rusting up on blocks outside a trailer park. They put up a gritty fight against lowly Miami. But if the Dolphins can get the job done at home, Washington can certainly continue their minor renaissance in their own back yard. Cody Kessler is no answer for the Browns, admittedly at a tender 23 years of age. The Skins can cut loose here.
Back Washington to win over Over 12 Points Winning Margin @ 12.011/1 or better
Dallas at San Francisco: Sunday, 18:00
Dallas still look competitive without Tony Romo, but much of that success hangs by a thread in the key but capricious statistic of third-down conversion rate (a staggering 52.5%). Stats like that can packs up their tendentious tents and disappear in the night. So while San Francisco have also looked deeply disappointing, it wouldn't take much for their defense to step up at home and make this interesting. Points will be at a premium.
Back the Under Total Points Under 46.5 @ 1.728/11 or better
Denver at Tampa Bay: Sunday, 21:05
The first overall pick in the 2015 Draft faces up against the 250th. Considering both these guys play the pivotal role of quarterback, you might expect Jameis Winston to hold the edge over Trevor Siemian. Of course, Siemian's Broncos are a run-first offense, piggy-backing on their dominant defense. However, that could change in the late-summer sunshine of Florida. The Bucs are useful, while that Denver D will tire, such is the load they're carrying.
Back Tampa Bay to win Half-Time- Full-time on the Double Result @ 3.02/1 or better
Los Angeles at Arizona: Sunday, 21:25
Was that a blip in Buffalo for the Cards (a 33-18 ass-kicking) or is there really a glitch in the system? Home comforts should reassure Arizona, but LA are top of their tough division and clearly underestimated at your peril. That said, Rams running man Todd Gurley is stalling in his quest to find a higher gear (a pedestrian 2.9 yards per carry) making their offense all kinds of predictable. I say Carson Palmer gets his groove back with his wayward wideouts.
Back M.Floyd to score First / Anytime Touchdown @ 10.09/1 or better
New Orleans at San Diego: Sunday, 21:25
Drew Brees is back in San Diego for the first time since he departed for the Superdome a decade ago. Naturally, much has changed since then. But both sides converge in grappling with game management, which is largely responsible for their underwhelming starts. The Bolts are more together, while the Saints' defense is proving as wafer thin as most observers feared. Big points is a trite call. Better to ask Brees to boot his decent offense into shape, and keep it close on a very helpful handicap line.
Back New Orleans (+3.5pts) to win @ 2.0421/20 or better