NFL Tipsheet: Mini previews and recommended bets for Week 13 fixtures

Romilly Evans
04 December 2016

Friends reunited: Aaron Rodgers and Jordi Nelson must continue their rebirth to keep the Pack alive

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Romilly Evans takes you through his game-by-game analysis of all Sunday's encounters, with a wager for each...

"Trevor Siemian missed one midweek practice too many with a sprained foot, so the planets have aligned for Paxton Lynch taking over under center"

Recommended Bet

Back Jacksonville (+5.5pts) to win @ 1.9110/11 or better

Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 18:00

Denver's quarterback Trevor Siemian missed one midweek practice too many with a sprained foot, so the planets have aligned for Paxton Lynch taking over under center for the Broncos. That could be all the motivation Jacksonville need to finally start adding up to the sum of their useful parts. For if the faltering Jags were the best 2-8 in the league last week, they're certainly the top 2-9 underdog this Sunday. If Blake Bortles can favour discretion as the better part of valour, their loaded defense need only step up a rung to make this untenable for the rookie Lynch.

Recommended Bet
Back Jacksonville (+5.5pts) to win @ 1.9110/11 or better

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 18:00

Drew Brees and his oval buddy continue to rack up the air miles to the extent that this vet could even develop into a stealth MVP candidate, should New Orleans find a path to the postseason. Detroit should also be play-off bound under Matthew Stafford, arguably the most powerful arm in the NFL. Yet they may struggle to keep pace in DB's Thunderdome. Especially with Dennis Allen's porous secondary proving occasional Saints (as opposed to habitual sinners) these days.

Recommended Bet
Back New Orleans (-4.5pts) @ 1.9520/21 or better

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears
Sunday, 18:00

Colin Kaepernick is rebuilding his fallen-idol status a tad, and can move the chains with both his arm and his pacy paws. The team around him are a busted flush, however, so even Chicago's troubled defense will be able to get to the Niners' fulcrum. However, with QB Jay Cutler now ruled out for the year (shoulder) it's not as if the Bears will outscore anyone in a hurry. Short total points, and look elsewhere for your viewing pleasure.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 44 Total Points @ 1.824/5 or better@

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
Sunday, 18:00

Just when most judges thought it was safe to strike Green Bay from the postseason record, back comes Aaron Rodgers and his receiving crew to league-leading figures, emphatically dispatching Philly on the road. More happily ensconced back at historic Lambeau Field, that trend of renaissance should continue against a woeful Houston outfit, already beginning to pen the obits on Brock Osweiler's young career. With Minny losing on TNF, Rodgers gazes down over NFC North, twirling his moustache with only Detroit to catch. Next stop: Play-off Country? Oh but wait, Rodgers is now suffering from a hamstring pull. So wait till kick-off before committing. Although, given his split-personality season to date, committed might be the operative word.

Recommended Bet
Back Green Bay (-6.5pts) @ 1.981/1 or better

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 18:00

Matt Ryan versus Alex Smith is the embodiment of game-player versus game-manager. However, after their last gasp win at Mile High, Kansas can have confidence in their QB and a well-balanced roster at the intimidating Georgia Dome. Ryan, on the other hand, is still prone to the odd spectacular lapse, which the Chiefs' D could exploit.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 27.5 Total Atlanta Points @ 1.9110/11 or better

Los Angeles Rams @ New England Patriots
Sunday, 18:00

Well, Gronk's lung / back injury is worse than expected, so New England's all-star tight end is likely out for the remainder of the campaign. More specifically for this encounter, Tom Brady's other receiving outlets (Julian Edelman, Martellus Bennett and Chris Hogan) are also listed as questionable. Throw in Brady's own knee concerns, and you've got to take the LA Rams on a two-TD handicap, even with Jared Goff pulling the strings.

Recommended Bet
Back LA (+13.5pts) to win @ 1.9420/21 or better

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, 18:00:

While Joe Flacco's stock is dropping this term, Ryan Tannehill's is belatedly on the rise. In part, that's due to the time the Miami man is now enjoying in the pocket. For the Fins' thriving running attack (led by Jay Ajayi) doesn't allow rival corners the chance to press both coverage and their focus on Tannehill's passing game. Still, Baltimore do boast the league's best run-defense, so my instincts say this will prove a moment of truth of Ajayi. On reflection, then, Flacco can probably get this done at home, even if he cuts Miami's D with a thousand short-field slices, not his old-school deep ball.

Recommended Bet
Back Baltimore to win on the Moneyline @ 1.574/7 or better

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 18:00:

The hits just keep on coming for Philly. Not only is Caron Wentz failing to recapture his dazzling initial form but he's losing receivers like dinosaurs in an asteroid strike. Jordan Matthews is the next name of those potentially MIA, while RB Ryan Mathews is also doubtful. Over in Cincy, Andy Dalton's Red Rifle may be without his favourite target man in AJ Green, but the make-up on the Bengals' side is far healthier - and, of course, they enjoy the homefield of Paul Brown. Not that it's done them much good recently.

Recommended Bet
Back Cincinnati to win on the Moneyline @ 1.8810/11 or better

Buffalo Bills @ Oakland Raiders
Sunday, 21:25

I still reckon Derek Carr and Oakland are overrated, while Buffalo and LeSean McCoy can still make the play-offs to give Rex Ryan a much-needed shot of dignity. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. Slow and steady wins this race for the Bills, taking the game-clock and big plays away from Carr. Play the unders with confidence.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 49.5 Total Points @ 1.824/5 or better

New York Giants @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 21:25

The Vegas line says Big Blue's six-game winning streak snaps here. And in comfortable fashion at that. Pittsburgh obviously have home advantage, and an explosive offense whose current collective wellbeing pledges to make up for lost time. The New York Giants, though, have their own arsenal (particularly at receiver) under Eli Manning - who's definitely healthier than Big Big this term. So let's chance Victor Cruz getting in on the early TD act, with most of the Steelers' attention going to Sterling Shepard and the red-hot OBJ.

Recommended Bet
Back V. Cruz to be First / Anytime Touchdown Scorer @ 15.014/1 or better

Washington Redskins @ Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 21:25

If Kirk Cousins' star in is the ascendant, Carson Palmer's is on the verge of supernova. However, rumours of the Cards' QB's demise may have been exaggerated, especially now that the pressure of making the play-offs is now off. He can begin to pick up the pieces here, as his redoubtable D regather their lines to prove Cousins isn't all that.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 24.5 Total Arizona Points @ 1.9110/11 or better

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, 18:00

This is being billed at the weekend's big grudge match. Cam Newton's even managing to ruffle a few feathers in the Hawks' dressing room, as the Carolina QB attempts to derive some remaining purpose and meaning from a campaign of failure. But while Seattle are thriving under Russell Wilson, Cam's Cats have nothing left for which to play. This should be a cake-walk.

Recommended Bet
Back Seattle to win by Over 12pts on Winning Margin @ 3.02/1 or better