NFL Tipsheet: Mini previews and recommended bets for Week 12 fixtures

Luca Bercelli
27 November 2015

Stefon Diggs has been a revelation

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Luca Bercelli casts his beady eye over Sunday's NFL fixtures and suggests a bet in each match

"The Vikings won five in a row before last week and had emerged as Super Bowl dark horses"

Recommended Bet
Back the Minnesota Vikings to win @ 2.021/1

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, 18:00

You'd expect the Bills to play hard all season long under Rex Ryan and they continue to do that without getting results. To keep it to within a touchdown against the reigning champs on MNF was no mean feat, and the triumvirate of Tyrod Taylor, Sammy Watkins and especially LeSean McCoy will pose problems for anyone. Problem is, the Chiefs are on fire and you couldn't pick a worse moment to face them. Coach Andy Reid has got this mob playing an all-round game that his last four opponents have found impossible to deal with. A combined points tally of 130-39 in those games tells its own story. The Chiefs should be way too good at home, although the spread makes things tricky.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Sunday, 18:00

It hurts me to say this but the Jets look totally shot at this stage of the season. Their defence promises much but delivers little, the running game has disappeared and the passing plays are too predictable. Gang Green were relying on a dominant defence to help them win games but that hasn't materialised and as a result a threadbare offence, not helped by an offensive line missing its best player Nick Mangold, can't step up. The Planes dominated the Fish at Wembley but the return fixture worries me, even with Miami off the boil in recent games. I think it'll be tight but the 3.5 points head start is waving at me...and I'm reluctantly waving back.

Recommended Bet
Back the Miami Dolphins +3.5pts @ 1.9420/21

Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons Sunday, 18:00

Now this is more like it, a match-up I can really get my gnashers into. Yes the Vikes had a setback last week v the Packers, but Green Bay's D really stepped up on that occasion and I don't expect the same defiance from an Atlanta side that seem stuck in reverse gear. Compounding their recent woes is the fact that monster running back Devonta Freeman is out with concussion, leaving a couple of rookies to carry the load. They will need to get stuck in because QB Matt Ryan seems out of sorts and has never been the best at handling pocket pressure, the like of which he's bound to encounter in this tussle. Don't forget, the Vikings won five in a row before last week and had emerged as Super Bowl dark horses. Don't write them off just yet.

Recommended Bet
Back the Minnesota Vikings to win @ 2.111/10

New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans Sunday, 18:00

One thing I learnt from the Texans v Jets game is that receiver DeAndre Hopkins is faster than poo off a shovel and definitely one of the best in the league. All this rubbish about Darrelle Revis being washed up just isn't true: I watch all his plays and there's no doubt he is still top drawer. For him to give up the yards he did says much more about Hopkins than it does about any perceived problems on Revis Island. The other major factor in Houston's recent improvement has been their D which is finally living up to its billing as potentially one of the league's best. It might not be so effective, however, against wily Drew Brees and co. so I'll be taking the points on offer and hoping the Saints are on a going day.

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Sunday, 18:00

The Skins got crushed by Carolina last week while the Giants had their feet up in front of whatever 'I'm a Celebrity' substitute they have in the Big Apple. That was no biggee for Washington as the Panthers are red-hot and have the steamroller out just about every time they take to the field. I've got a sneaky feeling that the Skins might just nick the NFC East, but to do so a win against Big Blue is imperative. If they can stop the one good Manning and OBJ it will mean they will draw level with New York at the top of the table. That's a huge incentive and one that I think Captain Kirk can achieve. With 2.5 points in our favour and a decent passing defence to rely on this looks like one of the better bets of the week.

Recommended Bet
Back the Washington Redskins +2.5 points @ 2.111/10

Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans Sunday, 18:00

The Bottom-feeders Bowl features two teams with only six Ws between them all season and a combined five game losing streak. Something has got to give, and it's not going to be either one's position in the Super Bowl outright market. Single digits in that are a fantasy but there's so much left to play for; pride, the shop window, and er....pride. Both can theoretically make the play-offs and the 2-8 Titans are in such a bad division that they could still win it (with a following hurricane). About as likely as Boris Johnson getting a decent haircut. No, this is low grade stuff but I have to admit the Titan's D has impressed me on occasions, and its third-ranked passing defence is just what the doctor ordered up against Derek Carr and Amari Cooper. That tempting stat is enough for me to take the bait.

Recommended Bet
Back the Tennessee Titans +2.5pts @ 1.910/11

San Diego Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Sunday, 18:00

The Chargers looked pretty forlorn as the Chiefs unplugged, then proceeded to spank them with the cord, over and over last week with 33-3 the final indignity. There were no real excuses, just a tired team playing a resurgent force, and seven Ls in a row is a distinct possibility against an improving outfit that has won three of its last four. They're not great these Big Cats, but Bortles, Robinson and Yeldon have found a winning formula and just getting it done has the same effect as a blow-out win. The Jags are worthy favourites and I see them getting it done, even minus the points.

Recommended Bet
Back the Jacksonville Jaguars -4.5pts @ 2.111/10

St Louis Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals Sunday, 18:00

The Bengals (hic) didn't know (hic) what had hit them (hic) after the smash and grab act performed on them last week by Arizona. In truth the slight hiccup wasn't too worrying for Cincinnati fans because this was two very good teams battling it out at the top of the pile. Carson Palmer looks super slick and could go deep into the post-season with all the options at his disposal, but the same can definitely be said for the Bengals. The Rams are a decent test, especially with Todd (I'm not) Gurley a constant menace at running back. If he can instigate some ground and pound the Bengals might slow down but there's no chance of that tickle developing into a full blown choke.

Recommended Bet
Back the Cincinnati Bengals -8.5pts @ 2.0621/20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts Sunday, 18:00

I liked Tampa QB Jameis Winston from the start, and his infectious optimism seems to have spread throughout the Bucs' organisation as they continue to improve week by week. Winston couldn't miss and Doug Martin couldn't be tackled as they led Tampa to an absolute walloping of Philly 45-17 last week; a win that prompted the worst double-headed nickname I think I can remember, 'Jameis and the Dougernaut.' Might not catch on that one, but what is catching on is an appreciation of Tampa's free-flowing attacking mentality, an attitude they've managed to cultivate as a result of early season low expectations. Contrast that with the doom and gloom surrounding the Colts, who have been battling the loss of Andrew (the answer) Luck, and now have to do without their rock solid left tackle Anthony Castonzo. Grinding out results is their forte, but that might not be possible v the explosive Bucs. I like them with a 3.5 points head start.

Recommended Bet
Back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5pts @ 1.84/5

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers Sunday, 21:05

I'll be really surprised if the Niners don't get (what's the technical term) 'absolutely tonked' by the Cards. As mentioned earlier, they appear to be a finely tuned force capable of beating anyone on their day. I backed them for the Super Bowl last year and but for injuries they might have gone all the way. Maybe this is their year. As long as Carson Palmer stays healthy, Arizona are very serious contenders. At the other end of the scale are the 49ers. How they've conjured up three wins this season is hard to fathom, but at least they've weeded out the root of the problem, CK Maxx (Colin Kaepernick), and replaced him with the more dependable Blaine Gabbert. All academic because they don't match up well v the Cards in any department. I think they'll get shredded, so covering the spread should be easily do-able.

Recommended Bet
Back the Arizona Cardinals -10.5pts @ 2.111/10

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks Sunday, 21:25

Seattle seem to have uncovered Marshawn Lynch 2.0 in the form of rookie running back Thomas Rawls. He ran riot against the sorry Niners last week, picking up 209 yards and a few opposition white flags as he thundered through and over would-be tacklers. Things will be tougher against the Steelers who welcome back Big Ben to a starting role for the first time since week nine. This has the makings of a classic encounter, definitely worthy of a bucket of chicken and a six-pack on Sunday night. As for the shekels, they will be going on Pittsburgh and the points in the hope that Big Ben can exploit a Seahawks defence that has not been quite as dominant as it was last year.

Recommended Bet
Back the Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5pts @ 1.865/6