NFL Tipsheet: Mini previews and recommended bets for Week 10 fixtures

Luca Bercelli
10 November 2015

Blake Bortles is maturing nicely

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Luca Bercelli navigates the NFL's murky waters and uncovers some tasty tips in week 10...

"...after an impressive performance from the fast-maturing Blake Bortles in a tight loss to the Jets last week, I give them the edge here."

Recommended Bet

Back the Jacksonville Jaguars +5.5 @ 1.865/6

Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans Sunday, 18:00

Let's not try and get too clever with this fixture - the Panthers should win it comfortably on all known form, despite the fact that the Titans had a morale-boosting overtime win v the Saints last week. It's a bit of a shame that Carolina will cruise this one because Superman-Cam has developed an annoying cockiness on the field lately. No one wants to see their quarterback beseeching the crowd for applause after gaining five yards for a first down in the opening quarter. 'Look at me, look at me' can be roughly translated as 'my size in hats has increased enormously.' Save the acting career for retirement my man - you've got a Super Bowl to win.

Recommended Bet
Back the Carolina Panthers -4.5pts @ 1.910/11

Chicago Bears @ St Louis Rams Sunday, 18:00

The Rams came oh so close to taking down A.P. and the Vikes last week and can get right back on track with a W over the Da Cuddly Bears. The Curly Horned Beasts could have Mr Concussion, Wes Welker, in their line up come Sunday, and if they do he's a welcome addition no matter how few brain cells are left in his knackered cranium. St Louis have been woeful through the air so anyone who can make a few receptions and take a load off Todd (I'm not) Gurley in the running game can have an immediate impact. I like the Rams in this one...a lot. This is a five star play.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday, 18:00

The Browns haven't got anything going even after their creditable close loss to the Broncos in week six. At least Cleveland fans have woken up to what I've known since last season; the fact that the answer to their quarterback problem is right there on the roster, wasting most of his time handing out the Gatorade. I thought John Football played great last week, in fact I always like the way he plays. When it went wrong for the Browns it was either dropped passes, blown pocket protection or lapses on defence, nothing at all to do with Mr Manziel. I'd crawl all the way to Cleveland on broken glass if it meant he'd sign for the Jets but the one man who doesn't recognise his value is coach Mike Pettine. If J. Football plays, I like the Browns' chances...if he doesn't, forget it; even if Pittsburgh have to rely on their back-up slinger.

Recommended Bet
Back the Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5pts @ 1.910/11

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday, 18:00

The strongest indication that karma does really exist is evidenced by how badly the Cowboys have fared all season. Owner Jerry Jones' declaration that all-round bad egg Greg Hardy was one of the team's leaders and that he should be given second, third and fourth chances was a mistake; and one that almost all sections of the NFL regard as 'misjudgement number 533' by Mr Jones. The game this weekend pits banged up (but with Dez Bryant back) bullies Dallas, against all-round good guy Jameis Winston and his emerging Bucs. Tampa will need to be at their best to win this one but they certainly have the talent to do so. I'm betting on Karma 1, Science 0.

Recommended Bet
Back the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ 1.910/11

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Sunday, 18:00

Detroit seem to have wrapped up the wooden spoon and the number one draft pick earlier in the season than they would like, but at least it provides some light at the end of a very dark and depressing tunnel. It's what's so great about the NFL; no relegation, and if you suck, you automatically get the best young player for next season. The temptation must be there for the Lions to throw in the towel but the game doesn't lend itself well to shirkers. A/ they get hurt, and B/ there would be a national outcry. So the Silver and Blue will make a game of it, but they really shouldn't be competing with Aaron Rodgers and a re-energised Randall Cobb. As mismatches go, this one is a peach, and a handicap of 11.5 points is nowhere near big enough to stop us collecting. The Lions have more chance of pulling off the upset than Chris Eubank does of winning IACGMOOH.

Recommended Bet
Back the Green Bay Packers -11.5pts @ 2.01/1

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens Sunday, 18:00

Both these teams sit on 2-6 records but whereas expectations were high for the rag-tag Ravens they were non-existent for the whacky Jags. That puts Jacksonville in a much better place mentally, and after an impressive performance from the fast-maturing Blake Bortles in a tight loss to the Jets last week, I give them the edge here. They have no rushing attack to speak of, but do feature dangerous options through the air in the two Allens (Robinson and Hurns), dual purpose T.J Yeldon, and potentially - Julius Thomas. The attitude seems to be very positive in the camp and if you add that to Baltimore's 29th ranked pass defence you have yourself a decent betting proposition.

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles Sunday, 18:00

Silly Philly got away with it in overtime against the 'Boys last time out but they weren't convincing, and although they might be slightly better than I've been giving them credit for I'm still a non-believer. They do take on Miami at a good time, however, as the fish have quickly settled into their old losing ways after an initial two-game winning streak as a result of Dan Campbell's arrival. Those two Miami losses came against the great (New England) and the good (Buffalo), so they should be more at home with the ugly (Philadelphia); especially with 6.5 points in the back pocket.

Recommended Bet
Back the Miami Dolphins +6.5pts @ 1.910/11

New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins Sunday, 18:00

If only the Skins could get something going they'd have a shot at winning a horrible division. It could be this week, but as per the market this look likes a very tight affair. Two porous Ds and one decent offense (New Orleans) would seem to give the edge to the Bourbon St massive, but I'm more inclined to rely on the one part of Washington's defence that can get the job done - its secondary. Hopefully it'll be able to negate Bomber Brees and keep the points down. Pretty much a coin toss or as I like to say after a skinful, a toin coss. In a best of seven the Skins came out 4-1 winners...that'll do for me.

Minnesota Vikings @ Oakland Raiders Sunday, 21:05

This one is the game of the week for me, a real clash of styles, solid v sexy. Minnesota's so solid crew should have steady Teddy Bridgewater at the helm despite the late hit he took v the Rams last week. The stability he provides does seem to be the ingredient which has provided the platform for the Vikings' six wins this season. They are becoming a real force and have crept into the top ten in the outright Super Bowl betting. Defence has been a big part of their recent success and if they can keep Carr, Cooper and Murray relatively quiet (and I think they will), the Vikes should put enough points on the board to scrape through.

Recommended Bet
Back the Minnesota Vikings to win @ 2.47/5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos Sunday, 21:25

Pick Six Peyton finally came good last week and nailed defeat number one after the rest of his teammates had tried so hard to notch up win number eight. He just isn't up to the job, I don't care what anyone says. Stick any top five quarterback in front of that Denver team and the Broncos would all be wearing new rings come early next year. As it is they're not even guaranteed to beat average teams like the Chiefs; but they need to because a loss here puts them in serious jeopardy of not winning the division. At 7-2 the grumblings about Pick Six get louder, at 8-1 they probably get shelved for the season. The absence of DeMarcus Ware (season ending injury) and Aqib Talib (eye poke suspension) does not make things easier. The stars are aligning in favour of a Chiefs win, especially with the points. Mystic Meg's your gal, and Tecumseh is your guy.

Recommended Bet
Back the Kansas City Chiefs + 6.5pts @ 1.9310/11

New England Patriots @ New York Giants Sunday, 21:25

Now you might think the following u-turn idiotic and I couldn't really blame you; but hopefully you'll appreciate both sides of the argument. So, only one week after I said that I'd be riding the New England bus all the way until it lost on the handicap, guess what I'm doing? Yes, I'm immediately getting off in New York and taking Big Blue to win with the points. I didn't change my mind lightly, so here's why. Mind blowing stat of the week; Coughlin has beaten Belichick five times out of six. Also, the Pats' top rusher Dion Lewis, so crucial to many victories, is out for the season; JPP is back and producing for New York; and most importantly, if OBJ has one of his special days there is not much that the Patriots (or anybody for that matter) will be able to do about it. It's New York, reluctantly, with 7.5.

Recommended Bet
Back the New York Giants +7.5pts @ 1.910/11