Bart Barden has been destroying Betfair's NFL markets through the first three weeks with seven winners from nine selections. He makes a further trio here, but advises caution in a tough week...
"If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I have been winning on Denver since the first game against Baltimore as people incorrectly questioned the strength of Denver as a team. This is probably the last week you will be able to ride this correction."
Call me Lionel Richie because last Sunday was Eeeeaaaasy! My good streak continued into week three, as all three picks hit with relatively low stress. The Colts/Titans game was an absolute shootout, and while the game did not flow as I thought, the ends justified the means with lots of scoring. In the late game, I took the alternate line on the Denver under, and the bet landed with ease, thanks to Detroit's disappearing offense.
Week four, to my eye, looks significantly tougher three so proceed with caution.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
1pts Justin Forsett Over 63.5 Rushing Yards @ 1.834/5 on the Sportsbook
To say Forsett hasn't been a fantasy football disappointment this year is like saying the Steelers aren't worried about Ben Roethlisberger's injury. However, the game flow has not been kind to Forsett and the Ravens were in large come-from-behind situations early in their first three fixtures. Expect the game flow to be slower, as the Steelers work a gameplay for Michael Vick, which will also allow Baltimore to use more of their playbook to spring Forsett in the run game.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
2pts Back Under 47.5pts @ 1.715/7 on the Exchange
Washington play defense well at home and they are a top-five running team, in terms of rush to pass play call ratio. The Eagles offense has not shown any explosion, aside from special teams, and Sam Bradford has been timid when throwing downfield. With DeMarco Murray slowed by injury and an offensive line that has not played well this season, the recipe is right for going under. Mother Nature will most likely help the cause as a potential hurricane storm system is scheduled to impact the Washington DC area. The game will most likely be played, but the weather should be awful. FedExField has a grass pitch and any significant rain will lead to very sloppy field conditions.
Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos
1pts Back Denver -6.5 @ 1.910/11 on the Exchange
If it ain't broke, don't fix it. I have been winning on Denver since the first game against Baltimore as people incorrectly questioned the strength of Denver as a team. This is probably the last week you will be able to ride this correction. Minnesota running-back Adrian Peterson looks back to all-pro form, but that is it. The passing offense has been lacklustre and going into Denver to play a solid offensive and defensive team is a tall order. There is a potential for Denver to win by double digits if Minnesota gets down early and they have to abandon their best weapon in AP. The Denver defense can have success stacking the box and daring the pass, given their strength in the secondary against the weakness of Minnesota's passing game. Old man Manning is smart enough not to lose the game for his team, who are playing at a high level right now.
Bart's 2015 NFL P&L
Staked – 13pts
Returned – 21.62pts
P&L – +8.62pts