I took this as my best bet at -7 on the podcast, and I'm willing to go with it again. The Bengals don't really match up well, but then they didn't match up that much better when they beat the Chiefs 34-31 in Cinn in week 17 (the Bengals were 5-4 at home, including an OT loss to the Niners) and 5-3 on the road). But that game had three crucial DPI calls, a weird horse collar and a hands to the face uncalled, all in the Bengals' favour.
On the other hand (and this is the only place where I hesitate), Joe Burrow threw for 446 yards and four TDs (30/39passes) with 11 catches, 266 yards and three TDs to JaMarr Chase. They did to the Chiefs what they did to Clemson in the NCAA championship game.
Chase is a rare talent (think of Tyreek Hill but bigger) and has the same ability to square up after the catch and run. But I don't think, in a playoff game at Arrowhead, with Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense functioning well, and Burrow not having the running threat that Josh Allen posed, the Chiefs will let me down again. Especially not if Tyrann Matthieu is playing, as appears likely, having cleared concussion protocols.
Best Bet: Back Kansas City -7.5 @ 1.910/11
This is a bit of an outside bet, in that I really like Deebo Samuel at evens as an anytime scorer, but think the Rams may be better suited, via Jalen Ramsey, to keep him in check close to the goal line. But Deebo could score running or receiving, and maybe even returning a kick, which makes a flutter on him a very strong nudge from me as well.
George Kittle is ideally their go-to guy in the red area, and though the Rams know that, I wonder how they will defend it. Were Jimmy G more escapable in the pocket I'd like Kittle even more, as the longer the play goes on the more likely he is to score. You want a third, outside, scorer from the Niners? Elijah Mitchell's 11/10. There are no odds on a shovel pass for a score.
Value Bet: Back George Kittle for anytime TD scorer @ 2.89/5
I am tempted to take the Niners on the moneyline, but my gut says that Sean McVay's losing streak (0-6) against Kyle Shanahan has to stop at some point. It won't give him much comfort to know Matt LaFleur (QB coach at Washington when McVay was TE coach and Kyle the OC under his head coach father Mike) lost to that juju last week! But I see this as a field goal game so a safer outside bet is taking that FG cover at 3.5.
The Niners' D is really strong, with the capability of limiting the Rams. Last week I was wondering why the Rams didn't give Sony Michel more carries when they had the big lead - not to punish Cam Akers for his fumbles but simply to leave less time for the Bucs to get back into the game.
When these teams met in LA in week 18 the Rams could have kept SF from the playoffs with a win. They led 17-0 and 17-3 at the half and McVay had never lost a game when his team led at half-time. Guess what? The Niners tied it up and won in OT.
They are not built to chase big scores. Their offense works better on play action than with Jimmy G throwing dropback from the pocket, but they were able to control the Rams' O line, and mostly control Aaron Donald.
The Rams have more rush now with Von Miller taking attention away from Leonard Floyd, and outside rushing is more effective against Jimmy G than, say, Mahomes, so check the injury report and see if Trent Williams is back at LT. He has an elbow injury and did not practice yesterday.
If you want an outside outside bet try a Rams' scorer: Matt Stafford (11/1), Tyler Higbee (23/10) and Sony (10/3) appeal to me in that order.
Outside Bet: Back San Francisco +3.5 @ 1.910/11
Place £20 worth of Multiples or Bet Builders over the course of a day, and, after the bets have settled, you'll get a free £5 bet to use on Multiples or Bet Builders. Bets must settle within 48 hours. No opt-in required, T&Cs apply.
T&Cs apply.
-thumb-640xauto-94345.600x338.jpg)
-thumb-640xauto-94345.600x338.jpg)
