It's week 10 in the NFL and Mike Carlson is making the case for the Eagles to outclass the Giants and the Steelers to have too much for the Bengals...
"The Eagles are not a great team, but they have their moments, and are coming off a bye, which negates the short-week syndrome."
I hope you're enjoying the ups and downs of this unique season as much as I am, even if last week my tips on what turned out to be the biggest, most revealing result of the season thus far - the Saints' 38-3 trashing of the Bucs.
That outcome meant I picked both the result wrong and the over/under as well, since it would have been hard to go over 50.5 without just a little help from Tom Brady's friends. I was also let down by Washington Team Football (aka WTF) after a horrible injury to QB Kyle Allen and five almost as horrible turnovers giving the Giants a rare win (the Jerseyites are 2-0 against Washington, and 0-7 against the NFL). They did deliver on the over 42.5 to help make amends.
On the NFL Only Bettor last Wednesday (listen to this week's episode above) we had agreed on Houston beating Jacksonville by more than 6.5. The Texans managed to win but the Jags fought fiercely, and Jake Luton delivered what my scouting report said he might, but which I didn't think would be enough!
Overs were our salvation. My personal podcast best, the Steelers and Cowboys going over 41.5, came in, and I'd given that in this column too. The Patriots and the other Jersey team, the Jest also went over (42).
So what does week 10 hold in store? There are a couple of posers to consider: who plays QB for Detroit and for Washington? Is Christian McCaffrey actually going to play? These may be factors that mean you wait until the inactives are released shortly before game time.
Eagles can outclass weak Giants
I am repeating my best bet pick from the podcast because I like it so much, and because there may still be some of you who don't listen to an hour of breakdowns from myself, Kieran O'Connor and John Balfe! But also because the line is unchanged since Wednesday, which says to me it's weighted pretty well.
My reasoning is the Eagles are not a great team, but they have their moments, and are coming off a bye, which negates the short-week syndrome (though this is a bus ride game up the Jersey Turnpike). And the Giants are, as I said above, 0-7 against the non-Washington bit of the NFL, and Philadelphia is not Washington.
Steelers to edge high-scoring contest
This is another line that hasn't moved and, as long as it doesn't climb to 7 points, it is a good value. The Bengals are also coming off a bye, which I don't think is a huge problem for Pittsburgh, but leads me to lean toward the Over (45.5 at 10/11) as well. Joe Burrow will put some points on the board for the Bengals, but it won't be enough to win this one.
In the other battle of the heralded rookie quarterbacks, Justin Herbert and the Chargers travel to Miami to take on Tua and the Dolphins. The Chargers are evens on the moneyline, but the fact they're travelling west to east doesn't bother me as much as it might if it were an early start. So I'm thinking the first half Over (24 at evs) might be value.
If you want a value bet that's really an outside bet, try Buffalo to win at 23/20 v Arizona on the moneyline. If the Bills can control Kyler Murray the way they did Russell Wilson they may have a shot.