Thursday Night (Friday 01:20): Jimmy G could make the difference
San Francisco (8-6) at Tennessee (9-5): Both these teams have been injury-riddled, but the Niners seem to be getting healthier while the Titans hope Derrick Henry might be back for the playoffs (they ought to win their division as they hold the tie-break over the Colts) but have receivers in and out. Mike Vrabel's done a great job keeping them in games, but last week they played down to the Steelers' level. If the Niners can keep Jimmy G's jersey clean, they have a great shot, but it's a west to east travel game on a short week which is usually bad news for the travelling team. Check the Titans' injury list too, but right now they are getting three as home dogs which might be tempting.
Saturday 21:30: Pack can cover 7.5
Cleveland (7-7) at Green Bay (11-3): The line here moved from 7 to 7.5 overnight: it was a pretty easy take with the Pack giving a TD, and the extra half point makes a difference but probably not that much of one, even if Baker Mayfield (and coach Kevin Stefanski) test out of Covid protocols. I assume Kenny Clark will be back for the Pack, which is huge for their ability to cope with Nick "Chugg" Chubb and the Browns' run game.
Best Bet: Packers -7.5pts @ 1.910/11
Saturday Night (Sunday 01:15): Colts look a bet
Indianapolis (8-6) at Arizona (10-4): Indy have the Raiders and Jags coming up, so with a win on the road they could be positioned to equal Tenn in the standings and put pressure on them if they lose. But the Cards have lost two in a row and really need to get back on track: could they be fading as they did last year or is Kyler Murray just not able to run as much as they'd like? This is an intriguing game, and I have the sense of the Colts being a team coming good at a good time: fascinating how Frank Reich is trying to limit the damage Carson Wentz can do. The Colts beat the Pats by taking advantage of their early lead and playing situational football behind Jonathan Taylor, who ran 28/103 apart from his late 67 yard clinching TD. The Lions ran on the Cards, and so may the Colts.
Outside Bet: Indianapolis +1.5pts @ 1.910/11
Sunday (18:00): Giants-Eagles will serve up points
Tampa Bay (10-4) at Carolina (5-9): The only question is how much, and that really doesn't care whether Cam, PJ, or even Sam Darnold plays QB for the Panthers. They could use the three on set downs, like the Niners did when they introduced the shotgun in 1961 with Billy Kilmer on first down, Bobby Walters on second and John Brodie on third. It worked for three games. Cover 11? Over 44? The Bucs will be limited without Evans, Godwin and Fournette, but after last week's shutout you have to figure Brady will force himself to trust some of his backup receivers, or maybe throw every pass to Antonio Brown.
LA Chargers (8-6) at Houston (3-11): The Texans, like the Lions, have continued to play hard, and Davis Mills, while limited, has improved as he plays. But the Chargers should have beaten the Chiefs
The Eagles inexorable march to the playoffs continues. They did it on the ground last week, but they may be forced to pass a bit more by the football Giants, whose one strength is up front. I kind of expect Jake Fromm, the poor-man's Mac Jones to start for the G Men and probably keep them in the game longer than anyone expects.
Value Bet: Over40.5pts @ 1.910/11
Baltimore (8-6) at Cincinnati (8-6): Another check first game as the Ravens' injury list is considerable. Momentum would say the Bengals, back to the wallgrittiness would say Ravens, and the "analytics" guys would whine that John Harbaugh could be 10-4 if he'd stop going for 2 point conversions at game's end. What Harbaugh should have done was taken the three points early in the game, but that's overlooked. The Ravens getting three is tempting, but the under 45.5 is even moreso.
Detroit (2-11-1) at Atlanta (6-8): Recency bias says the Lions are worth betting with six points, but I expect the Falcons do at least try to do what the Cards surprisingly failed to do, which is to get into Jared Goff's face and try to keep Detroit on the back foot offensively. Easier said than done, I know.
Jacksonville (2-12) at NY Jets (3-11): The line has shifted from the Jags getting 2.5 to the "Jest" being one point home dogs: that's because of 14 Jets players placed on the Covid list, along with head coach Robert Saleh. More worrying is that LB CJ Mosley and WR Jamison Crowder are both listed as questionable, but I might expect both to play. The question is whether the Jags are equipped to take advantage of that and whether Trevor Lawrence outplays Zac Wilson in the battle of rookie QBs.
LA Rams (10-4) at Minnesota (8-6): That was a hard-wn 20-10 win for the Rams on Tuesday night, which also means this is a short week road game for them. My podcast best bet was the under (49.5) here and the line has stayed firm, the Vikes are three point home dogs. They tend to keep games close and messy, and at home might be able to do that again. Shame we can't have a Cooper Kupp/Adam Thielen match up of "sneaky fast" wide receivers.
Buffalo (8-6) at New England (9-5): Probably the game of the week. It should be a different story from when the teams met two weeks ago, and the Pats are unlikely to make the same amount of mistakes they made last week in Indy. The Bills weren't convincing against the Panthers, but they won without making Josh Allen carry the ball 17 times, which is a good sign for them. But I like the Pats giving only two; I think Bill will have them ready to play, especially if Kendrick Bourne comes off the Covid list.
Sunday {20:15}: Bears-Hawks could be ugly
Chicago (4-10) at Seattle (5-9): This has the potential to be extremely ugly. The Seahawks did a nice job of holding the Rams to 20 but scored only 10, the Bears held the Vikes to 17 but scored only 9. See where I'm going with this? Given they're both on short weeks, I'm looking under here.
Sunday 21:25: Wait and see with Steelers-Chiefs
Denver(7-7) at Las Vegas (7-7): The morass of the AFC Wild Card means both teams still have something to play for and the line has shifted from the Raiders being 1.5 favourites to being one point home dogs. I'm not sure how a team quarterbacked by Drew Lock can be favourites on the road, though the Broncos will beat up on Vegas up front.
Pittsburgh (7-6-1) at Kansas City (10-4): Both Travis Kelce (Monday) and Tyreek Hill (Tuesday) were added to the Chiefs' Covid list after they had the weekend off following their Thursday night win, and the line has dropped from 10.5 to 7.5. I can't make a call on this until we find out their status (kicker Harrison "Butkus" Butker is also on the list anlong with 12 others) so I will leave this alone for now. I almost like the Chiefs to win but Steelers to cover even without the stars. But my advice is wait and see.
Sunday Night (Monday 01:20): This is a big spread to cover
Washington(6-8) at Dallas (10-4): Taylor Heinecke and/or Kyle Allen might well be available at QB for WTF instead of Garrett Gilbert, still the best QB from the Alliance of American Football, but WTF are playing on a short week on the road and I don't think have the firepower to match the Cowboys. Dallas is good at covering spreads, but this one is 10.5, and big spreads always worry me because teams with leads sometimes take their feet off the pedals.
Monday Night (Tuesday 01:15): Defences to the fore
Miami (7-7) at New Orleans (7-7): What looks like a defensive battle, after Dennis Allen against stymied the Bucs, something he seems to do very well. On paper the Dolphins have more offensive weapons, especially if Duke Johnson can run like he did last week. The Saints are doing it with smoke and mirrors on offense, and they are Taysom's Team now.
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