NFL Tipping Sheet: Week 16 Previews and Handicap picks

SportNeverSleeps.com
21 December 2012

Who will win the tussle for the AFC North?

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Week 16, it's crunch time in the NFL, still lots of playoffs spots up for grabs but there's no room for error

'Everything points towards a Cincy win but their record at Heinz Field is woeful and when the chips are down the Steelers bring their A Game.'

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions
Sunday 01:30
The Lions are in major free fall. They host the Falcons this weekend and worryingly for them, ATL don't look like they are in the mood to give out an early Christmas gift. Detroit are on a shocking run of six straight defeats, pretty poor by any standard. There is a small glimmer of light at the end of the long tunnel and that's wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Another incredible season considering what is going on with the rest of his team. He is the first player in the history of the NFL to have back-to-back seasons of over 1,600 receiving yards, if he gets 182 yards over his last two games of the season he can break Jerry Rice's single season record. For a team who are ranked 1st in passing and 2nd in offence, the Lions have not done enough in other areas to make this a season worth remembering. The Falcons on the other hand have already tied up the NFC South division and with a win against the tame Lions, can lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. With injuries plaguing the Lions secondary they will be hard pressed to keep up with the Falcons prolific passing game.
Recommended Bet: Atlanta -3.5

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Sunday 18:00
In a clash which sees two of the AFC East also-rans pitted together we should actually see a decent game. Both teams have mirrored each other in their last 5 games and are 2-3. While Miami may be happy with six wins from rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, the same certainly can't be said for Buffalo. There's huge pressure on Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, he needs a big finish to the season or might find that his job for 2013 will be up for discussion. Buffalo are looking to come into this game and make a mends after the absolute mauling they got at the hands of the Seahawks last week which brought to light the problems in their supposedly improved defence. Unfortunately for them this game is at the Sun Life Stadium and I expect the Dolphins to avenge a loss to the Bills earlier this year in another close game. The only player for Buffalo who is putting in a shift is C. J. Spiller. Try as he may I just don't think he can help drag his team over the line and I believe that Miami's front seven should be able to cope with him.
Recommend Bet: Miami -4.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday 18:00
Absolutely huge game in the AFC North. Last weekend was a heartbreaker for the Steelers, an overtime loss in Dallas combined with a Bengals win in Philly saw Pittsburgh's playoff hopes slide from probable to possible. This Sunday they must win to haul back Cincy and stay in contention. Despite a couple of tough losses giving up soft scores their defence is still ranked number one, it's on the offensive side that the real problems arise. Big Ben is big and brave and considering his size he's incredibly elusive but his lack of protection from an ever changing offensive line has hampered the Steelers all year. If he had more time to make plays the Steelers receivers could kill most teams. The Steelers have won just one of their previous five and the injuries to the secondary are taking their toll, they look vulnerable.
The Bengals have less to worry about, they're relatively healthy and with five wins from six are one of the hottest teams in the league. A.J. Green has always struggled against the Steeler D but should be able to get open this time as Ike Taylor won't be around to smother him. With the Ravens playing a desperate Giants team and then facing the Bengals on the final day the AFC North could still go to one of three teams. If Cincy win this Sunday that'll be down to two. Everything points towards a Cincy win but their record at Heinz Field is woeful and when the chips are down the Steelers bring their A Game.
Recommended Bet: Pittsburgh -3.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday 18:00
Couldn't be a better fixture for the Colts. They still need one more win to secure their wildcard spot but they lost to the Texans last week and will have to face them again next week so this Sunday's match is crucial, luckily they're playing the Chiefs. They should roll in and out of Kansas relatively unscathed and with a playoff birth in the bag. Andrew Luck should get the yards he needs to become the most productive rookie QB ever, this should be a real feel good Sunday for Indianapolis. The less said about Kansas the better!
Recommended Bet: Indianapolis - 7

Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans
Sunday 18:00
Minnesota come into this one hoping Adrian Peterson can continue his breathtaking form and carry the Vikings into the playoffs. They were never expected to still be in contention at this point but with Peterson seriously threatening Eric Dickerson's rushing yards record they have put themselves in the wildcard spots. With so many other teams sharing their eight and six record it's going to be tough to hold on, they need another win this Sunday and that's a big ask. The Texans clinched their division last week but aren't quite ready to take their foot off the gas. Coach Gary Kubiak has stressed the importance of securing a bye in the playoffs and they'll play all their starters. At home the Texans simply dominate. They have the most complete team in the league and will be eager not let Peterson embarrass them in front of their home fans.
Recommended Bet: Houston -7.5

New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday 18:00
Mismatch of the week. The 10-4 Patriots face the 2-12 Jags. The Pats still need a lot of results to go their way if they are to improve their standings in the playoff seeds but will be eager to get a convincing win against the lowly Jags after a disappointing loss to the 49ers last week. Brady will want his offence hot for the playoffs and could use this match as shooting practice. The Pats will welcome back Rob Gronkowski at tight end this week and his inclusion in the receiving corp will only make their offence even more potent. Expect the Jags to get bullied on their own patch, they have lost six of seven there this year, their offence shows no signs of improvement and the Pats should be able to overcome the monster handicap.
Recommended Bet: New England - 14.5

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys
Sunday 18:00
This should be an exhibition in passing from two quarterbacks capable of making all the throws. Drew Brees threw for four TDs in a total demolition of the Bucs last week whilst Romo led his Cowboys to a big win over the Steelers. The Cowboys are developing a healthy knack of performing their best in the fourth quarter and despite Dez Bryant's injured finger their offence continues to deliver. The presence of running back DeMarco Murray gives them more options and there's now a real buzz around Dallas. Owner Jerry Jones is being typically bullish talking about a Super Bowl appearance and whilst the team won't be getting that far ahead of themselves they'll know that if they beat the Saints then they'll at least have a decent shot at continuing their season into January. The Saints are bipolar, capable of beating anyone with their passing attack but they have totally ignored the defensive side of the game. The fact that they put up a big score and got a shutout last week is a good indication that they will do the opposite this week, they're reliably inconsistent.
Recommended Bet: Dallas -3

Oakland Raiders @ Carolina Panthers
Sunday 18:00
Raiders at Panthers, two teams with pretty poor records but the disappointment has been felt way more acutely in Carolina. This was supposed to be the Panthers year but they failed to deliver loosing eight from their opening ten games, a lot of that was down to Cam Newton. The correlation between his form and the Panthers results couldn't be more pronounced and recently he's hit a hot streak. The Panthers host the Raiders looking for a third straight win which would ease the tension around Ron Rivera's position as Head Coach. The Raiders got a rare win over the Chiefs last week but still didn't managed to get in the end zone. McFadden will be worth watching but apart from that the Raiders are done.
Recommended Bet: Carolina -8.5

San Diego Chargers @ NY Jets
Sunday 18:00
Another two teams who have been a let down. Both are out of playoff contention and both have little happening on offence. San Diego are ranked 28th and New York are even worse at 30th. But this still might one of the most talked about games this whole weekend. Why? Because of the continuing circus that goes on in New York, perhaps we will see head coach Rex Ryan on the sideline in a clown suit and a big red nose on Sunday? Mark Sanchez has been benched after his hapless game against Tennessee and Greg McElroy, not Tim Tebow, is the chosen one this time round. Tebow isn't happy and there's talk of a trade. With Ryan's decision not to use him the rumour mill has picked up speed. Looks like 'Tebow Time' is done and dusted in New York before it even had a chance to start. This game could go either way but with San Diego's injuries mounting up and running back Ryan Mathews out it should make it that little bit easier for the Jets to pick up the win. Just.
Recommended Bet: NY Jets -1.5

St Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday 18:00
I fully expect both of these teams to come good in 2013. This season was too early for them. Just over a month ago the Buccaneers looked like they were going to be playoff contenders in the NFC, but since then they have suffered four straight losses and the icing on the top of a very nasty tasting cake was a 41-0 whipping at the hands of the New Orleans Saints. They do have Doug Martin who in his first season became the first player in NFL history to score touchdown runs of 70-plus, 45-plus, and 65-plus yards in a game and is only the second player in league history to run for 250+ yards and four touchdowns in a game. Sadly he can't save the Bucs from meltdown. The players and coaches are at each other's throats. They are literally fighting on the sideline. Meanwhile the Rams have quietly gone about their business and made significant leaps forward in their first year under head coach Jeff Fisher. The Buccaneers will have a tough time containing Sam Bradford, who threw for 377 yards against the Vikings. The team that isn't imploding should make comparatively short work of the one that is.
Recommended Bet: St. Louis +3

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers
Sunday 18:00
Could be a smart time to invest in the Packers, last week they wrapped up their division and now they play hoping to overtake San Fran to the second seeding spot in the NFC, coach Mike McCarthy has his team fired up and is stressing the advantage of gaining a bye in the playoffs. They will need the 49ers to drop a game but with a tough fixture against the Seahawks on Monday that could well happen. By the time the playoffs arrive Green Bay could have all their major injury worries resolved, Greg Jennings is back, Clay Mathews and Charles Woodson are also both near recovery. Their roster looks a lot more impressive with those names on it. The Titans are only playing for pride and contracts but will not roll over at Lambeau, they've found some resilience in their defence recently and Chris Johnson is running the ball well. Green Bay will win but the handicap will make it tight.
Recommended Bet: Green Bay - 12.5

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday 18:00
The Redskins travel to Philly looking for their sixth straight win, they're one of the hottest teams in the league and should welcome back RG3 this Sunday. His backup Kirk Cousins deputized well last week and led his team to a road win, that was reassuring for Mike Shanahan but he'll be pleased to have his star player back this week. With three teams locked at the top of the NFC East the 'Skins only nudge ahead due to the tiebreaker, they can't afford to let up with the Giants and Cowboys ready to pounce. The Eagles have been deeply disappointing and Andy Reid may be on the sidelines for the last time at Lincoln Field. They've toughened up lately but will find it hard to contain a vibrant Washington offence.
Recommended Bet: Washington - 6.5

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Sunday 21:05
Denver are the form team in the NFL, they're currently on a nine game winning run. They've already wrapped the AFC West division and will be looking to keep a hold on to the second seed in the AFC. QB Peyton Manning is enjoying an MVP type of season in his first year in the Mile High City. Cleveland are one of the league's rising teams with a defence that is really coming together and should improve even more before the start of next season. Could they cause an upset? Stranger things have happened this season so don't be too shocked if the Browns nick it as the Broncos may ease of the gas with the division done. Bright, back to the land of the logical thinkers, this game has a big Broncos win written all over it, expect the Browns to feel blue heading into Christmas.
Recommended Bet: Denver -13.5

Chicago Bears @ Arizona Cardinals
Sunday 21:25
After winning seven of their first eight the Bears have imploded. Almost inexplicably their form has deserted them, they now face a real struggle to make the playoffs and must win their last two both on the road. Jay Culter needs to up his game and he's been making the right noises before this one. The Cards also started well this year and then fell to pieces but last week they got a decent win over the Lions and may have found their rhythm. Their defence has firmed up and Cutler will have to be careful not to be picked, turnovers could decide this one.
Recommended Bet: Chicago -5.5

NY Giants @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday 21:25
This should be pretty tense, another two teams that have gone off the boil recently and desperately need to regain belief. The Ravens have already secured a playoff spot but have slumped to three straight losses, unless they fix up they could throw away their AFC North crown. They are under performing all over. the D has suffered from injuries , the rushing game is not as powerful as it once was and Flacco's passing radar it is out of sync. Eli and the Giants can sympathise, they have similar concerns and the beatdown they suffered from the Falcons last week must have shook their confidence. The Ravens are an underdog at home, that's rare and they won't like it, they should get back to winning ways.
Recommended Bet: Ravens +2.5

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Sunday 01:20
Power football from the best in NFC West, what a treat. There are so many parallels between these two; intense dangerous defences, big time running games, and scrambling quarterbacks that are improving week on week. The 49ers will clinch the division if they can get the win but no team has managed that feat in Seattle this year. Not only do the Seahawks players defend with ferocious determination but the fans also play their part, opposition QBs are deafened before the snap, that's a factor that 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick needs to be ready for. Both these teams come off huge away wins last week, whilst San Fran put in a serious pointer to their potential by beating the Patriots the Seahawks dumped fifty on the Bills, both these teams are playing at their pinnacle. So hard to call, Russel Wilson seems destined for great things and Marshawn Lynch doesn't let up, with the home advantage the Seahawks can square the division. I'll be waking up on the sofa on Christmas Eve with the TV humming, it's a late one but pretty unmissable...
Recommended Bet: Seattle +1.5