NFL Tipping Sheet: Week 10 Handicap picks

SportNeverSleeps.com
10 November 2012

Will JJ Watt get to Jay Cutler at Soldier Field?

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It's week 10 in the NFL and there's a tonne of big divisional games this week, it's make or break time, the rush to the playoff places starts here...

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints
Sunday 18:00
This one is set up to be a monumental divisional shotgun shootout between Matt Ryan and Drew Brees in the Superdome. Atlanta have the perfect record and at last the respect it deserves, they will walk the NFC South this year. But the fact that the handicap is under a field goal against a team that is yet to loose reflects the consensus that the Falcons are due a hiccup. The Saints didn't really start playing until a month ago but in the last few games their offence has been red-hot and Drew Brees can't help but throw for thousands of yards. He will face some dogged cornerbacks this week and may not be able to pick his first choice receivers but he'll get his standard 300 hundred yards no doubt. Expect lazers and spirals all over the place in a QB showpiece that should go to Atlanta.
Recommended Bet: Falcons -2.5

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Sunday 18:00
The Patriots are back to their best and it's ominous for the rest of the league. You won't even find a Bills fan who holds out much hope for this one despite the fact that at present there is only a 2 win variable between these teams. The Bills need to change their offensive strategy, they simply aren't playing to their strengths. They have a huge asset in running back C.J Spiller, he's averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per carry but last week he only got the hand off six times, it's madness. The Pats have a huge handicap against them but with the number one ranked offence on yards and points you can't complain.
Recommended Bet: Patriots -11.5

Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
Sunday 18:00
Finally the Panthers broke their loosing run last week in a decent win over the Redskins, that will have done them wonders and expect them to win more than they loose from now on. This Sunday they welcome the Broncos to the Bank of America Stadium hoping to impress again but up against the class and experience of Peyton they're going to struggle. In the last few weeks the Broncos have looked like championship contenders, their offence is purring and no secondary has been able to stop the receiver pair of Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Add to that a sturdy defence and the Panthers are going have more problems than problem solvers.
Recommended Bet: Broncos -3.5

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Sunday 18:00
This one looks stacked against the home team. If Percy Harvin doesn't suit up then their passing game will take a huge blow, with Christian Ponder already starting to look shaky they can't afford that loss. Adrian Peterson has been exceptional and he can carry them on his own against lesser teams but not the Lions in a divisional. Peterson will pass the 1000 yard barrier on Sunday but it may not be enough. Special mention must go to Chad Greenway who leads the league with 94 tackles but he will need help if he is to slow down a Matt Stafford led Lions offence that tops the passing yardage table. Stafford has looked razor sharp and should have enough to push the Lions to a winning record.
Recommended Bet: Lions -2.5

New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday 18:00
The Giants threw away a 10 point lead at home against the Steelers last week which put an end to a four game winning run. This week they travel to the swing state of Ohio hoping to gain their seventh win before enjoying a bye. If they get the win they'll be a sure bet for the playoffs as all around them in the NFC East have fallen off, they already have a three game advantage on their rivals. Eli had his worst numbers in years against the Steelers and will want to put on a bit of a show against the Bengals. Cincy will look to exploit the holes in the Giants secondary and with A.J. Green they always have the potential for the big play. Should be a shootout that the Big Blue boss.
Recommended Bet: Giants -4.5

Oakland Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens
Sunday 18:00
The Ravens are perched at the top of the tree in the AFC North but with the Steelers hot on their tails they will need to maintain their impressive home form to remain there. Despite their 6-2 record they have not looked convincing and uncharacteristically their defence is giving up a lot of yardage. They have looked susceptible to the run and will be grateful to hear that the Raiders roll into town without either of their top two starting backs. Baltimore will establish the run and grind out points and then hope their D Line can put significant pressure on Raiders QB Carson Palmer. The Raiders aren't too shabby and the handicap will make it tight but with 14 straight home victories you got to side with Baltimore.
Recommended Bet: Ravens -7.5

San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday 18:00
You got to love Doug Martin, he's fun to watch, he's coming off an enormous performance last week, 251 yards and 4 TDs! The Chargers do have a good run defence and I think they'll likely focus on 'The Muscle Hamster' too much, which should open up the deep passing game for the Bucs. Step forward Vincent Jackson going up against his former team, that could be important. The Chargers don't impress me much. Their four wins this season have been against poor teams; the Raiders, Titans and twice against the Chiefs. They're generally not a good road team against teams in the eastern time zone. The Bucs have serious playoff aspirations that I believe are becoming realistic. You have to win games like this to make the knockouts. They should win this one easily.
Recommended Bet: Buccaneers -3.0

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
Sunday 18:00
Tennessee's three wins this season are by a combined 7 points. Their six losses are by a combined 133 points. Not quite sure how they've won three games due to how poor they are on defence. They're giving up 141.6 yards per game on the ground, which is 30th in the NFL. Miami like to run the ball with RBs Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas, which opens up the passing game for rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, who has performed very well of late.
Even though Miami lost last week they were able to run well against a bad Indy run defence, and I would expect them to do more of the same this week against the Titans. Tennessee rolled over and died against the Bears last week, the key is to score early on them and they'll fall apart. I think this looks too tough for them to win on the road against a good Miami team.
Recommended Bet: Dolphins-5.5

New York Jets @ Seattle Seahawks
Sunday 21:05
The Jets come off a bye needing a win to regain any hope of making waves in the AFC East. At the start of the year with all the Tebow hype and Sanchez with a solid year behind him it looked like the Jets may be a force but some of last year's stars have lost their edge and others have suffered serious injuries, it now looks to be another nothing season for Gang Green. Seattle fans do their utmost to be inhospitable and it's paying off for their team. Despite having a very average passing game they have found success from a swarming defence and an unstoppable running back in Marshawn Lynch. The Seahawks will soar and put heat on the 'niners in the AFC East.
Recommended Bet: Seahawks -6.5

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sunday 21:25
Disappointment in the NFL can lead to people loosing their jobs. Big star QB's like Michael Vick or top coaches like Andy Reid are not immune. This time next year it'll be a huge surprise if they are both wearing Eagles kit. The Eagles have flunked and although Vick has been poor the lack of protection he receives makes his job impossible despite his agility and quickness. They sit at 3-5 and if they loose this one then they can kiss the playoffs goodbye. The Cowboys also sit 3-5 and have also disappointed but have shown in recent losses that they can play and they still have fight. DeMarcus Ware already has nine sacks and with a paper thin Philly O line he should be dancing with Vick all night. Dallas should be feeling much better after this heated divisional rivalry.
Recommended Bet: Cowboys -1.5

St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Sunday 21:25
Nobody wants to play the 49ers this year, they have the mean defence and have a running game that relentlessly pounds the opposition until they give up yards and points. They also have a quietly efficient Quarterback in Alex Smith, right now the 'niners are an inpenitrable force. The Rams will give it a shot though, they will travel to Candlestick park to take on their NFC West counterparts hoping to keep it a low scoring affair, that could give them a chance. They have a decent defence and their offence should be fresh after the bye but this is still a big ask.
Recommended Bet: 49ers -11.5

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears
Monday 01:20
Game of the weekend no doubt at Soldier Field in the late kick off. Both teams look rock solid and sit 7-1 at the top of their divisions. The Bears come off a 51 point haul in Tennessee, the Chicago offence has now started to match the impressive form of their defensive team-mates. Houston had a less spectacular win at home to the Bills last week but they continue to produce performances that make me think they could go all the way. The Texans have impressed me the most out of these two because their record has been gained against tougher opposition. Even if the Bears wily secondary manage to shut down Andre Johnshon and co. then the Texans have a running game that should still be able to move the sticks and in Arian Foster they have a red zone specialist that already has 10 TDs to his name this year. The Bears will of course pose a serious threat especially at home but Jay Cutler has not had to overcome a defence that is so efficient against both the run and the pass and possesses a player of the calibre of JJ Watt.
Recommended Bet: Texans +1.5

Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Tuesday 1:30
Look like the Steelers have got this one in the bag, at Heinz Field on Monday Night Football they haven't lost since the nineties. After a significant win over the reigning champs in New York last week the Steelers are starting to be considered as real contenders. With the emergence of Dwyer and the return of Redman they now have two power backs they can rotate, that's exhausting for opposing Defensive lines. Big Ben and the receivers have a good understanding and the Pittsburgh 'steel curtain' has been drawn shut again, their defence is now rated number one... Steeltown is back. The Chiefs are on a lousy run and apart from the ever reliable Jamaal Charles are offering little resistance and shouldn't get much from this trip. The handicap is brutal on Pittsburgh but they will want to impress the Steeler Nation and should make it comfortable.
Recommended Bet: Steelers -12.5