NFL Thanksgiving Tips: Bills can steal a win in Dallas

Dave Gray
27 November 2019

Dak Prescott will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing performance

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Dave Gray believes that the Bills can ruin the Cowboys' Thanksgiving and head home with a win as he previews all three games on Thursday.

"The Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record this season, and while they could well break that run this week, I really like the Bills +6.5."

Injuries too much for the Lions

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Thursday, 17:30 GMT
Live on Sky Sports Action and Main Event

The Lions could be without their strongest two quarterbacks, leaving David Blough to lead the Lions against the Bears. Chicago don't have the same defence that we saw last season, but they are still one of the best in the league and will make it extremely difficult for the third string passer. It is hard to see him getting out of this one without turning over the ball.

Mitch Trubisky has had his struggles this season, but he showed some improvements against the Giants. While he is unlikely to win a game on his own, he just needs to be able to not give it away and he should be able to do that against one of the worst passing defences in the league.

The Bears have struggled to get the ground game going and that has not helped Trubisky. David Montgomery has been given plenty of opportunities but he has not been able to do much with it. He has reached 70 yards just one time this season. Tarik Cohen hasn't been much better, but has contributed a lot more in the passing game.

The Lions wide receivers have been pretty good this season, but it is hard to see the likes of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones doing too much against this secondary, particularly with a third string quarterback playing. They are already missing star running back Kerryon Johnson and it is hard to see where the points will come from.

The Bears haven't been as good as last season, but they should still be far too strong for this injury-hit Lions team. They can cover the 3.5 point spread.

Take the Bills and the points

Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, 21:30 GMT
Live on Sky Sports Action and Main Event

The Bills enter this game at 8-3 and one of the favourites to take home one of the wildcard spots in the AFC. But the schedule suddenly gets a lot harder from here and that starts with a road trip to Dallas for the traditional Thanksgiving game.

The Cowboys had a chance to show that they were a real contender against the Patriots on Sunday but came up short. Dak Prescott entered the game with some MVP buzz but really struggled against that fearsome secondary. The Bills have a good, but not great defence and he should get back to his best here.

Josh Allen is a very interesting quarterback. He isn't particularly accurate. He doesn't always look like the best player but his incredible athleticism seems to carry him through more often than not. He isn't quite Lamar Jackson, but he is one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the game and is always a threat on the ground.

The Bills play a lot of close games and this one looks like it could be the same. The Cowboys have not beaten a team with a winning record this season, and while they could well break that run this week, I really like the Bills +6.5. Buffalo have a real shot at winning the game outright, but the handicap feels like a great bet.

Micheal Thomas to lead the Saints past the Falcons

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
Friday, 01:20 GMT
Live on Sky Sports Action and Main Event

The Falcons had something of a resurgence over the past month but that was quickly halted as they suffered a big loss to the Buccaneers.

The Saints won a close one with the Panthers to all but seal the NFC South title. With just five games to go, their three game lead is going to be too much for the other teams to overcome and New Orleans will now be eyeing up the number one seed.

Michael Thomas has been the main man for the Saints this year. The single season receptions record is very much attainable. He needs around eight catches a game from here to break the record and he can make that easier with a big game here. He had 13 receptions in the last meeting with Atlanta and there is nothing in the Falcons secondary that will be worrying him.

Julio Jones missed practice on Tuesday and is a doubt for this game. If he can't make it then the pressure will fall on Calvin Ridley. He has 16 touchdowns in just 27 career games and is a good bet, even if Jones plays, to find the end zone.

The Saints are just better in every department and although the Falcons did upset them a few weeks ago, it is hard to see them doing it again. New Orleans can cover the 6.5 point spread.

For more NFL Thanksgiving tips and a mid-season review watch NFL...Only Bettor below...