NFL Sunday Tips: Titans to pound their way to crucial victory

Mike Carlson
13 December 2019

Derrick Henry is a key player for the Titans

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As the NFL season reaches week 15, Mike Carlson recommends bets on Tennessee, Los Angeles and Philadelphia in this Sunday's key matches...

"At home I can see the Titans pounding away with Derrick Henry and keeping DeAndre Hopkings in check, so a win by more than three seems like a good bet. I'd be very tempted to go under 51 points at 10/11 as well."

I always like a mixed-bag week when it's the best bet that shines, and that's what happened last week as I had the Niners plus 2.5, which means they would have covered even had George Kittle not made that incredible run after the catch to set up the winning field goal, and the over of 44.5 which seemed reasonable at the time and turned out to be.

I was wrong on the value of taking the Seahawks to win in LA at even money, and yes, sometimes looking for a value in the odds you wind up with what may actually be an outside bet. My own outside pick, Jacksonville plus three at home to the Chargers seemed reasonable, but who would have guessed the Jags would play as if they'd already gone home for the year. Luckily the Chargers cover the 44.5 over all by themselves.

Now is the time when the season should get easier to pick, as we know who teams are, but now is also when other factors come into play: are there teams like Jacksonville who are now soft (they aren't tanking games, they just lack the fire to make up a big deficit), teams that are coming into form at the right time (Titans?, Steelers? Bears?) or teams whose injury status may lead them to not push and risk important stars with nothing but draft position left to lose for. These are significant variables to cloud the picture, just when it all should be coming clear!

Tennesse can break down Texans' D

Best Bet: Tennessee -3 at 10/11 v Houston

All of a sudden the AFC South is a dogfight, and these teams are tied at the top and will meet again in Houston to end the season, so a win won't decide things, especially as next week Houston has Tampa while the Titans host the Saints. But Tennessee is on a bit of a roll, and they do it with a running game, a controlled passing game with Ryan Tannehill, and solid defense, whose biggest strength is ball-hawking. You might like to see more pressure, which is what puts DeShaun Watson off his game, and there's no question the Texans' D has adjusted with their pair of inside backers picking up the post-Clowney post-Watt slack, but at home I can see the Titans pounding away with Derrick Henry and keeping DeAndre Hopkings in check, so a win by more than three seems like a good bet. I'd be very tempted to go under 51 points at 10/11 as well.

Rams can punish Cowboys

Value Bet: Los Angeles Rams -1 at 10/11 v Dallas

The reason I like the Rams in this one is their defense, which has looked better since rookie Taylor Rapp started getting full time snaps at safety/linebacker. This is a tough one because the strength of the Cowboy defense is pass rush, and rush is what turns Jared Goff from an all-pro passer into a malfunctioning automaton, but based on how they protected him against the Seahawks, I think the Rams will be able to be more creative and punish the Cowboys at home.

Can the Eagles grind out the win?

Outside Bet: Philadelphia -4.5 at 10/11 at Washington

If the Cowboys lose and the Eagles win that would put Philly in the drivers' seat for the division title, although the two teams go head to head in Philly next week. On paper, even with injuries and their sporadic play, the Eagles should be the better team, and without Darrius Guice there is less threat of a breakway touchdown to upset the game's balance. But the Eagles aren't very good at grinding out games, which is why the over/under is low enough for me to suggest going over 38.5 at 10/11. Speaking of over/unders, my best bet when we did our NFL Only Bettor podcast (see below) on Tuesday was the San Francisco/Atlanta over at 46.5, but since then it's moved up to 48.5 still at 10/11. It has moved from a best to an outside bet for me now, but still worth a look.