Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks: Seattle can keep pace with Eagles

Mark Kirwan
02 December 2017

Mark Kirwan thinks the Eagles are overvalued going into Seattle

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The Eagles have been great for bettors this season, but the strength of their schedule and Seattle's homefield advantage should mean this game is closer than the line suggests, writes Mark Kirwan....

"Russell Wilson could force himself into the MVP chatter alongside Wentz if he continues to play at the elite level he has been recently. It's hard not to feel like Wilson's heroics are papering over bigger issues, as the running game, previously the offensive identity of this team, has disappeared in a flurry of changing running back starters. "

Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks
Monday December 4, 01:30 GMT
TV - Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Eagles rise above NFC fray

Philadelphia have been the punters' friend this season. Their record is a league best 10-1, they're scoring heavily, and have been 9-2 against the spread over the season, with five covers in their last five games.

Their ascent has been led by Carson Wentz, the sophomore QB, whose play has him being talked of as Tom Brady's main challenge for another MVP title. Their defence has also become one of the tougher fronts in the league under the tutelage of Jim Schwartz, picking up sacks and shutting down passing opponents consistently.

However, looking at their schedule, it's fair to say they've had an easier run than other teams. Only two of their opponents this season have winning records; the Panthers, who they beat impressively in Charlotte, and the Chiefs, who they lost to in week two. They also caught a break with the timing of their game against Dallas, just as the Cowboys lost Ezekiel Elliott and their line fell to pieces.

Philly could only beat opponents put in front of them of course, and they've capably dispatched the mundane talents of the Bears, Broncos, Niners and Giants, but it's hard not to wonder how we'd think of them if they'd faced a few better teams.

This week's game should provide that, and with the Rams next week, the Eagles will get to dispel doubts with convincing performances in the next two games.

Seattle at a crossroads

In one way, Seattle have been similarly fortunate with their opponents. They're lucky to be 7-4, as they've been played close by several or opponents. On the other hand, the tribulations of Blair Walsh, their kicker, have meant they've picked up losses in games they could've won with adequate field goal kicking.

Russell Wilson could force himself into the MVP chatter alongside Wentz if he continues to play at the elite level he has been recently. It's hard not to feel like Wilson's heroics are papering over bigger issues, as the running game, previously the offensive identity of this team, has disappeared in a flurry of changing running back starters.

On defence, there seems to be a similar identity crisis as the Legion of Boom recedes into NFL lore. Part of it is injuries, with the irrepressible Richard Sherman lost for the year and Earl Thomas hurting, but there's also trouble on the defensive line as Michael Bennett ages, Cliff Avril recuperates and Sheldon Richardson aclimatises to the Pacific north-west.

However, they still have play-makers on offence. Wilson is chief among them, with Jimmy Graham, Paul Richardson and Doug Baldwin capable of making big plays when Wilson escapes pressure. They won't find it easy this week, but they can still score.

The defence will play tough despite the injuries with the raucous Seattle support behind them. The Eagles won't have faced a challenge like this so far this year, and seem to have peaked as a value proposition following their recent run.

The Picks

This is a spot where the Eagles could be brought back down to earth.

Seattle played the Falcons, who have burst into life in recent weeks, very close, with Wilson making them competitive in any situation. They've lost two on the bounce at home, so they'll have plenty of motivation to reestablish their intimidating home form of the past.

As such, the line is too generous here and I have to take them at +5 or better at 1.981/1 on the Handicap market.

I'd also expect both teams to score in this situation, as Philly have scored heavily all year, and the Seahawks are capable of keeping pace, so think Over 47 on the Total Points market looks a good play at 1.9620/21.

On the Touchdown Scorer markets, I like Jimmy Graham at 5/1 for the First Team Touchdown Scorer. Graham has shown flashes of his pre-injury, New Orleans form this season, with eight scores in his last seven games. Philly are solidly middle-of-the-pack this season in tight-end defence, ranking 18th and giving up four touchdowns, but the strength of opponent here is a factor, and Graham has been so good recently he's worth a punt.

If you're more interested in longer prices, Carson Wentz is a juicy 35/1 in the First Touchdown Scorer market, and 13/2 Anytime. Wentz hasn't made it into the endzone this year, but can run in the kind of offence the Eagles deploy, and did have two scores in his rookie season, so is perhaps due a touchdown soon. This could be the week.