NFL Turkey Day Special: Picks, tips and prop bets

No Andrew Luck for the Colts and that means no chance against Big Ben and co.
No Andrew Luck for the Colts and that means no chance against Big Ben and co.

Neil Monnery hasn't been feasting on winners in the past couple of weeks but before he puts in his traditional Thanksgiving Day £2.50 Bernard Matthews Turkey Roast joint in the oven, he'll look at three games in the NFL this Turkey Day...

"Pittsburgh will have all their offensive weapons ready to go. Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are all fit and healthy. Expect them to rack up a blowout win in an extremely uncompetitive night cap."

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Start-time: Thursday 24 November, 17:00 GMT
TV: Live on Sky Sports
 

The Lions are 1.5pt favourites on the spread over on the Sportsbook but after watching them struggle against the lowly Jaguars last time out, I am finding it hard to feel confident that they'll cover. They put together a grand total of 14 yards rushing on Sunday on 20 attempts, less than a yard per carry. They've been behind in the fourth quarter in every game this season, although they've come back to win six of them.

As for the Vikings, they have a stout defense but an offense with a lack of playmakers. They started the season 5-0 before losing four straight before Sunday's 30-24 win over the sinking-without-a-trace Cardinals. I struggle to believe in an offense with Sam Bradford under Center and without Adrian Peterson, but it's not like I'm wedded to Matthew Stafford either. Tough one to pick, this.

I don't like either team in this game and don't expect it to be a thriller. Yet it pits two teams who are very much in contention and the first time in an age that the early game on Thanksgiving has playoff implications on both sides. With Stefon Diggs out it is a chance to play a few Vikings lines where the over/under totals seem very achievable.

Recommend Bets
3pt Back Minnesota to win straight up at 2.021/1 on the Exchange
6pt Back over 30.5 rushing and receiving yards for Matt Asiata at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 52.5 receiving yards for Golden Tate at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 54.5 receiving yards for Adam Thielen at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Matt Asiata to score the first TD at 10/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Eric Ebron to score the first TD at 11/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook


Washington @ Dallas Cowboys
Start-time: Thursday 24 November, 21:00 GMT
TV: Live on Sky Sports
 

First of all Dallas are 6.5pt favourites on the spread on the Sportsbook. That is ridiculous and I'm saying that as one of the biggest believers in the Cowboys among the NFL crew here at betting.betfair.com towers. The Cowboys are terrific, they control the clock, have an offensive line that matches up with the all-time great lines in NFL history but Washington are no mugs.

Kirk Cousins is lighting it up and they've finally found a running back who can break a big one. Rob Kelley went for 137 and three scores on Sunday night against Green Bay. They have a plethora of better than serviceable receivers and had two players with over 100 yards receiving last time out.

This is a far more competitive game than the line suggests and I fully expect it to come down to late in the fourth quarter. I think Dallas wins outright but if you are giving me 6.5pts with Washington then I'm taking them.

Recommend Bets
6pt Back Washington to win getting 6.5pts at 1.991/1 on the Exchange
6pt Back over 70.5 rushing yards for Rob Kelley at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 101.5 rushing yards for Ezekiel Elliott at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 56.5 receiving yards for Jordan Reed at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 308.5 throwing yards for Kirk Cousins at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back Rob Kelley to score at anytime at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Desean Jackson to score the first TD at 14/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Jason Witten to score the first TD at 14/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
Start-time: Friday 25 November, 01:00 GMT
TV: Live on Sky Sports
 

The Sportsbook held out on putting up these markets as they awaited news on Andrew Luck's concussion and the verdict came in late on Wednesday night - he's out. The line has been set as Pittsburgh -8.5pt and that might be being extremely generous to the Colts. They are going with Scott Tolzien and that is not a good thing.

Pittsburgh will have all their offensive weapons ready to go. Big Ben, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are all fit and healthy. Expect them to rack up a blowout win in an extremely uncompetitive night cap.

I could waste time and words on this but the short version is I don't expect this game to be competitive in the slightest and the Steelers will win going away...

Recommended Bets
6pt Back Pittsburgh to win with a 12.5pt handicap on the extended line at 7/5 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 95.5 rushing yards for Le'Veon Bell at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 288.5 throwing yards for Ben Roethlisberger at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Pittsburgh D/ST to score the first TD at 22/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Indianapolis D/ST to score the first TD at 22/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook

Neil Monnery NFL P/L

2015:

Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts

2016:
Staked - 449pts
Returned - 399.19pts
P&L - -49.81pts

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