NFL Tips: Feast on a hat-trick of home wins this Thanksgiving Day

Neil Harvey
25 November 2015

Class is permanent: Expect Calvin Johnson to shine for Detroit

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There are three sumptuous-looking NFL games to enjoy on Thanksgiving Day. And it's the home teams who look like they'll be celebrating the most, as Neil Harvey explains...

"Low on confidence and amid rumours that Head Coach Chip Kelly has lost the locker room, Philly look there for the taking"

Philadelphia Eagles @ Detroit Lions
Thursday, 17:30
Live On Sky Sports

Two of the biggest underachievers of the current NFL season do battle in the opening Thanksgiving fixture. Both are having massively disappointing campaigns. But it's the Lions who've been showing some signs of recovery, while the Eagles go from bad to worse.

Philadelphia's most recent defeat, 45-17 at home to Tampa Bay, represented a new low as they were shredded for more than 200 rushing yards. Stopping the run has been Philly's achilles this season. But there's reason to think their run-defense will have one of its better days on Thursday, with Detroit's running game ranking a stoney last in the NFL. Joique Bell looks like he's running with bricks in his pockets, while Ameer Abdullah averages just 3.6 yards per carry and has only one touchdown from 10 games. If the Eagles want to man-up against the run, now is their chance.

It's the (3-5) Lions with all the momentum, having just won back to back games against Green Bay (18-16) and Oakland (18-13). Those victories owed much to their defense, of which great things were expected pre-season, and which has smartened up its act recently. The offense though remains a mixed bag. The running game, as already mentioned, stinks. But Detroit's big name stars, quarterback Matt Stafford and receiver Calvin Johnson have shown signs of improvement and if they perform then the Lions should win this game.

The (4-6) Eagles meanwhile are in total disarray. Their defense resembles a colander. And the offense is in tatters. Running back DeMarco Murray was accused of giving up in their latest humiliation. Star receiver Jordan Matthews couldn't catch a cold of late. And starting quarterback Sam Bradford is injured, providing a chance for the supremely mediocre Mark Sanchez.

Low on confidence and amid rumours that Head Coach Chip Kelly has lost the locker room, Philly look there for the taking. Any damage though would need to come through the air, so watch for Megatron and Stafford to play the roles of executioners and put Philadelphia's season out of its misery.

Recommended Bets
3pts Detroit Lions to beat Philadelphia Eagles @ 2.001/1
Detroit to win at Half Time @ 2.001/1 or better
Detroit to win by 7-12 points 6.005/1 Sportsbook)
Calvin Johnson to score 1st/anytime touchdown @ 8.007/1 (Sportsbook)
Calvin Johnson receiving yards Over 80.5 @ [5/6] (Sportsbook)

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, 21:30
Live On Sky Sports

You would think it would be impossible for a team with significant losing record, such as (3-7) Dallas, to be considered favourites against a team that remains unbeaten, (10-0) Carolina. And yet this is the bizarre scenario that stands before us. Even Carolina's Head Coach Ron Rivera seemed surprised to see his team as underdogs, calling it 'a little disrespectful.'

Market makers don't usual make such obvious mistakes though. And upon closer inspection, you can find reasons why. The most obvious reason to support Dallas is motivation. The Cowboys' season hangs by a thread, as they cannot suffer another loss if they're to make the post-season. By contrast, the Panthers are cruising along and could suffer a number of setbacks at this stage.

Another key factor is the return of Tony Romo. Dallas won their opening two games of the season with Romo under centre. Without him, they then lost seven in a row. When he returned, they won again. It's that simple.

The difference when Romo plays is clear. On Sunday, he was average by his standards and showed understandable rustiness. But he was still good enough to help the Cowboys win away to a decent Miami side. Without Romo, Dallas were like a car with no engine. Soon though they should be firing on all cylinders.

The form of Carolina's defense and quarterback Cam Newton are the reasons why the Panthers are doing so well. I'm still not sold on them though. You can't win a Super Bowl with no receivers. And that's almost where the Panthers are, with tight end Greg Olsen performing weekly miracles to keep Carolina's offense going forward. Jonathan Stewart is having a good season at running back, but he's really nothing special and I can't help feel that the Panthers are just waiting to be exposed for the toothless team they really are.

Dallas love to hog possession. They starved Miami of the ball last time out, running down the clock at every opportunity. And they will no doubt try to do the same here. And so with two very solid defenses on display here, that makes backing a low-scoring game a fantastic bet.

Des Bryant, like Romo, is recuperating from injury. And between them, Dallas have regained a couple of game changers. Don't be surprised to see Des have a big game. But Jason Witten is also a guy who has a habit of coming good at the crucial moment and Romo will feel comfortable going to him when those moments arrive.

Whichever way this goes, the result should be close. Dallas need the result, but aren't so good that they can simply blow Carolina away. A field goal could easily decide this and Cowboys kicker Dan Bailey is one of the best in the business, especially from long range. So given that, I like the bet of Dallas to win by 1-6 points at 3.90.

The sell of 24.5 Carolina points looks a standout bet given the fact that they've averaged 27 points on the road so far but will likely be afforded much less time in possession in this game. And don't rule out the possibility of overtime, which we've seen little of this season and is long overdue to occur.

Recommended Bets
3pts Carolina Points to be Under 24.5 @ [8/13]
2pts Total Points Under 46.5 @ 1.9620/21 or better
Dallas to win by 1-6 points @ [29/10]
1st scoring play to be Dallas Field Goal @ 5.004/1
Jason Witten to score 1st/anytime touchdown @ 10.009/1 (Sportsbook)

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Friday, 01:30
Live On Sky Sports

If there's going to be a game that gets the scoreboard ticking-over on Thanksgiving then it will come at Lambeau Field, when an improving Chicago take on a resurgent Green Bay.

The Packers had been on a three-game losing streak with their critics mounting until they easily slapped down the challenge of fellow play-off candidates Minnesota last weekend, away from home, 30-13. That will have silenced many of the doubters.

Chicago deserve credit too though. They were only edged out 17-15 by Denver at the weekend. And immediately prior to that they'd logged impressive wins in St. Louis and San Diego. At (4-6), Chicago are unlikely to reach the post-season. But hope continues, and so does their good form.

Surprisingly, it's Chicago who have the more productive offense, both on the ground and through the air. Jay Cutler remains unpredictable at quarterback but should find plenty of gaps in a Green Bay secondary that ranks in the bottom half of the league. Their running game is also a threat, be it led by impressive stand-in Jeremy Langford or Matt Forte (fitness permitting) with the Packers also struggling to stop the run.

Green Bay undoubtedly have defensive weaknesses. But more often than not, their stellar offense bails them out. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best the game will ever see. But he's looked off his game at times this season. And he's struggled without number one receiver Jordy Nelson. Veteran James Jones has filled-in as his go-to guy, whereas young buck Devante Adams has struggled to adjust to life at the top table.

Ironically it could be the running game that saves the Packers on this occasion, with Eddie Lacy, who showed great improvement at the weekend against a tough Minnesota D, now facing a much softer defensive-line that ranks fourth last in the NFL. Lacy looks like doing exactly what he did last season, by starting slow and finishing strong. So I'll be backing him to run up some big yardage here.

But the Bears, while not giving up many yards to opposing quarterbacks, have proved vulnerable to passes once play gets into the red zone. Of the 22 touchdowns Chicago have conceded, a massive 19 have come through the air. So expect old favourite James Jones, and emerging favourite, tight end Richard Rodgers, as big-bodied men, to get those targets.

Both teams look capable of causing damage, so we should see a high scoring game. The Bears though have shown enough in the last three weeks to trouble the hosts. And could even lead the way, before being reeled in by Green Bay's sublime QB.

Recommended Bets
2pts Total Points Over 47.5 @ 2.0811/10
3pts Chicago (+9.5) to beat Green Bay @ 2.001/1
Chicago/Green Bay to be H/T-F/T result @ 5.004/1 (Sportsbook)
James Jones to score 1st/anytime touchdown @ 10.009/1 (Sportsbook)
Richard Rodgers to score 1st/anytime touchdown @ 13.0012/1 (Sportsbook)
2pts Eddie Lacy rushing yards to be Over 63.5 @ 2.001/1