NFL Week 10 Tips: Brady to lead Pats to easy win over Seattle

The timing is perfect for Tom Brady to inflict a big defeat on bitter, but out of sorts, rivals Seattle
The timing is perfect for Tom Brady to inflict a big defeat on bitter, but out of sorts, rivals Seattle

When Seattle lose, it's usually not by many. But there could be an exception this weekend when they face the in-form Patriots. Our analyst Neil Harvey explains all...

"Just as they were looking to get some momentum going, the Seahawks find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time. It shouldn't be a drubbing. But Seattle may have to take a double digits beating here, and grin and bear it."

Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots
Monday November 14, 01:30

Hmmm. It's not often you'll see such a hot favourite in a match up between these great sides. And quite frankly I'm suspicious so let's take a closer look. Yes, the Patriots are at home and yes, at 7-1, they have the better record. But at 5-2-1 the Seahawks are hardly mugs. So just why are New England a prohibitive 1.321/3 to win?

Well, the Pats have certainly proved themselves against some good sides. They've already knocked over the likes of Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Cincinnati, with Cleveland the only opponent you'd probably call a 'gimme'. By contrast, Seattle have had things easier. Their run has included the likes of the Rams, 49ers and Saints. And yet the Seahawks have managed to make hard work of their comparatively easy schedule, losing to two of the aforementioned. Bizarrely though, those were their only defeats, with Pete Carroll's side seemingly raising their game against the top teams. Seattle scrapped out a draw in Arizona and defeated Atlanta, results that suggest they may be saving their best for the big occasions.

The Hawks have scored an average of just 14 points a game on the road. New England are averaging over 30 points per game at home. Surely a cake walk then for the hosts? Then there's the fact that since talisman Tom Brady returned in Week Four, the Patriots have won their subsequent four games by an average margin of more than 16 points. That's home and away!

New England have danger men are all over the field. And they include running back LeGarrette Blount. With nine touchdowns in eight games, Blount has been the brute force element of the Pats' offense. He kicks down the doors that allow Brady and the receivers to step in and take advantage. His bad cop-good cop double act with Brady has worked well so far. The Seahawks give up just 3.5 yards per rush, fourth best in the league, but their linebackers will likely be deeper than usual because of the Brady effect. And having given up more than a hundred yards to David Johnson and Tim Hightower in the last month, it's hard to see them now shutting down Blount.

If Blount should struggle, then it puts added workload on Brady. The reality though is that New England faced three teams whose pass defense ranks higher than Seattle's in their opening three games, and they beat all of them - and that was without Brady playing. It's ominous stuff. And suddenly that 1.321/3 available on New England starts to look pretty big. Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski are likely to do well here. And the Seahawks have given up five passing plays of 40 yards plus, which is more than most teams, so I can see Brady aiming a few deep in the direction of Chris Hogan (if fit) to try to rub salt into the wound. Warning, do watch Hogan's availability though before placing any bets on him.

Seattle's ground game has been running through Christine Michael. But as I correctly predicted last week, his flash in the pan is just about over and the word is that a hamstring niggle could see promising youngster CJ Prosise take over in New England - a change which I think strengthens the Hawks, given the rookie's added pass catching ability. But it still doesn't solve the problem of Seattle's iffy offensive line which has left their rushing game ranked third from last in the NFL. The absence of Marshawn Lynch has never been felt more.

Russell Wilson can scamper and Jimmy Graham can plow forward with tacklers hanging from him like limpet mines, but none of it's likely to be enough to save the Seahawks who, just as they were looking to get some momentum going, find themselves in the wrong place at the wrong time. It shouldn't be a drubbing. But Seattle may have to take a double digits beating here, and grin and bear it.

Recommended Bets
5pts New England (-7.5) to beat Seattle @ 2.1011/10
5pts New England to win H/Time & F/Time @ [8/13] (Sportsbook)
3pts Tom Brady passing completions Over 27.5 @ [5/6] (Sportsbook)
3pts LeGarrette Blount rushing yards to be Over 66.5 @ 1.9620/21
3pts Chris Hogan (if active) receiving yards to be Over 39.5 @ [5/6] (Sportsbook)
3pts New England 1st drive outcome to be touchdown @ [12/5]
3pts Chris Hogan (if active) to score anytime touchdown @ [7/2] (Sportsbook)
3pts Rob Gronkowski receiving yards to be Over 69.5 @ 2.001/1
1pt Rob Gronkowski to score 1st touchdown @ 8.07/1 or better
1pt LeGarrette Blount to score 1st touchdown @ 8.07/1 or better

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Giants

Tuesday November 15, 01:30

It surprises me to see the 3-4-1 Bengals rated slight favourites to win away to the 5-3 Giants. It feels like Cincinnati have been misfiring all season. All apart from AJ Green, who's looked phenomenal of late - right at the peak of his game. It's taken Green time to hit form which explains the mind-boggling fact that he has less touchdowns (three) than his much less talented teammate Brandon LaFell (four). But you can bank on that freakish stat being righted extremely soon.

Failure to beat Washington last week was just the latest disappointment in what's been an up, but mostly down, season for the Bengals. Cincy have been particularly bad on the road, beating only the Jets, and even that was by a single point. So the prospects of them winning at the MetLife Stadium don't look good. Throw in the fact that quarterback Andy Dalton seems to have an aversion to playing in Prime Time, and those prospects worsen. Dalton has a 5-9 record in career Prime Time games, with a quarterback rating south of 50.

The Cincy passing game has looked good this season with 8.2 yards per catch. And they should improve, now that tight end and major red zone target Tyler Eifert is back fit. He gives the team another major receiving weapon. But they'll face a stiff test against a Giants secondary that's conceded only seven passing TDs all season and which gives up just 6.5 yards per catch. That's fifth in the NFL.

The Bengals have split their TDs equally, scoring nine through the air and nine on the ground. Jeremy Hill has performed poorly on the road though, suggesting this will be a day for his timeshare partner Giovanni Bernard to shine.

By contrast, New York are pass heavy. And given they have the league's worst ranked running game, it's probably no wonder that just four of their 16 offensive touchdowns have come on the ground. But perhaps things will improve here. After all, the Bengals are at best average against the run. And more significantly, they've conceded the second highest number of rushing touchdowns in the NFL. It seems Rashad Jennings is becoming part of a backfield committee alongside Paul Perkins. And while the duo might not rip off big yardage, there's a good chance Perkins, as the bigger and younger runner, could be given an opportunity to find the end zone from close in.

It's more likely though that we'll see Eli Manning looking to hit Sterling Shepard in the slot, and the outstanding Odell Beckham Jr just about everywhere else on the field. Beckham plays anywhere and everywhere. And like AJ Green, he looks to be close to his very best form, like when he totally bewildered the Baltimore secondary with his speed and agility last month. The spectacle of watching Green versus Beckham is worth the entrance fee alone and I'm sure they won't disappoint.

Shepard plays a nice Robin to Beckham's Batman. They look a close match for Eifert and Green for the Bengals. But it's New York's strength in the secondary that swings it for me. And if Red Dalton melts once again under the spotlights, the Giants D could be the difference maker here.

Recommended Bets
5pts New York Giants to beat Cincinnati @ 2.0421/20
3pts Andy Dalton passing yards to be Under 279.5 @ [5/6] (Sportsbook)
3pts Jeremy Hill rushing yards to be Under 64.5 @ [5/6] (Sportsbook)
3pts Rashad Jennings rush attempts to be Under 11.5 @ [5/6] (Sportsbook)
3pts Tyler Eifert to score anytime touchdown @ 2.506/4 (Sportsbook)
1pt Paul Perkins to score 1st touchdown @ 21.0020/1 or better
1pt Paul Perkins to score anytime touchdown @ 6.005/1 or better
1pt Odell Beckham Jr to score 1st touchdown @ 8.007/1 or better
2pts Odell Beckham Jr to score anytime touchdown @ 2.255/4 or better
3pts Odell Beckham Jr receiving yards to be Over 90.5 @ [5/6]

Profit and Loss Record

Staked: 193 pts
Returned: 231.78 pts
ROI: +20.09 %

Staked: 261 pts
Returned: 295.21 pts
ROI: +13.10 %

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