NFL Week Three Betting: Denver will put Taylor under pressure

Can QB Tyrod Taylor (above) cope with the pressure against Denver?
Can QB Tyrod Taylor (above) cope with the pressure against Denver?

Mike Carlson selects his bets for week three of the NFL action and explains why he thinks you should put your money on a trio of hard-fought victories on the road...


"It's a hard trip for the Broncos to go to Buffalo, especially after a Sunday night game, but the real key here is Denver's ability to pressure Tyrod Taylor... "

Excuse me if I make any typing errors this morning because my retinas have been damaged by looking directly into the LA Rams Donovan uniforms last night: Donovan as in 'electrical banana' in his song 'Mellow Yellow'. I suppose they're called colour burst because the colour bursts your brain, in much the same way the Rams-Niners shootout did. It was the most exciting non-Thanksgiving Thursday night game in a long time, and I was very glad I stayed away from the over/under.

But if you picked up on this column Monday, you might have liked the tips on the under for Lions-Giants, the under on Paul Perkins' rushing yards, and the over on Evan Engram's receiving yards. Sometimes you have to dig a bit to find nuggets.

The bulk of week three's action lacks marquee matchups, but we're already into the areas where injuries (San Bradford, Allen Robinson, Marshall Yanda) are affecting the way we have to look at games. It's hard to pick out an elite yet, but the idea of parity, so dear to the NFL's heart, seems to have resolved itself into a sort of three tiered league, which good to very good teams and not very good teams easy to spot, and the rest in a kind of crowded elevator that cant decide whether it's going up or down...


Broncos can cope with trip to Buffalo

Best Bet: Denver (-3 @ 17/20) v Buffalo (on Betfair Sportsbook)

Yes, it's a hard trip for the Broncos to go to Buffalo, especially after a Sunday night game, but the real key here is Denver's ability to pressure Tyrod Taylor, and their secondary's ability to make plays when Taylor, as he is prone to do, abandons his reads and tries to make things happen. I also might like Washington (+3 AT 17/20) v Oakland as a home dog likely to keep it close if not win. They have to be able to run, and they have to force Oakland into the air.


Bucs' defensive is key to their chances against Viking

Value Bet: Tampa Bay (win @ 6/5) v Minnesota

This is a really tough one, almost an outside bet, but the Bucs should be good enough defensively to benefit from the Vikings having to start Case Keenum at quarterback. They're also getting two points at 20/21, but it seems better value to take the win at better odds, so I'd recommend this if you fancy the Vikings, or don't fancy Keenum. Another outside bet that offers some value is LA Chargers (WIN AT 7/5) v Kansas City. You might prefer the Chargers getting three points, which is still even money; they've lost their two games this year by three and by two. The Chiefs are a better team than Miami, who won in Carson last week, but this has many of the makings of a trap game for them. Like Tampa, the value is in chasing what may be an outside bet, but again, if you fancy the upset, this is a good place to go.


Texans could achieve important win on the road

Outside Bet: Houston (+14.5 @ 17/20) at New England

The Texans have the defense to hold New England's attack down, though their offense could struggle. But rookie quarterback DeShaun Watson is the kind of guy who might blossom in garbage time of this game, and keep it to a two-touchdown win (that extra half-point is what makes this attractive to me). Remember last year's playoff game, where New England's win was a lot closer than the score lets on, and Brock Osweiler wasn't that much demonstrably better than Watson. You might consider taking under 44 at 20/21 to help cover that outside bet.

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