Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens: A tale of two defenses

Mike Carlson
27 November 2017

Mike Carlson believes Baltimore can come out on top in a defensive battle

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Mike Carlson returns to look back at Sunday's NFL action as well as his best bets for the Monday Night Football clash between Houston and Baltimore...

"Houston at Baltimore should be a defensive battle, even without JJ Watt or Whitney Mercilus playing for the Texans."

Hundley and Green Bay sink the Steelers

It was a rough weekend for my tips. My faith, such as it was, in Paxton Lynch was misplaced; if Trevor Siemian had come into that game earlier, Denver might well have covered - that's a big if.

For a half Brett Hundley ran the Packers' offense like a mini-Aaron Rodgers, that was enough to sink the spread in Pittsburgh. And my bad for thinking Cleveland would stop being Cleveland; Hue Jackson again messed up his clock management at the end of the first half. But if Briean Boddy-Calhoun had hung on to those two picks of Andy Dalton - another fairly big if.

Even in the snowy cold of Ottawa I froze. I was thinking that Ricky Ray had won three Grey Cups, and Marc Trestman knew how to use receivers, but Calgary were the better team. But despite 37 minutes of possession and 447 yards of offense, sure enough Ray and DeVier Posey, who never made it in the NFL, combined for a 100 yard TD (remember the CFL field is 110 yards) which was a Grey Cup record, and Cassius Vaughn had a 109 yard fumble recovery TD, another record, as was Ray's fourth win, and Toronto won. A somewhat chilly if and 0-4 for me, which is kinda like the Browns and/or Stampeders.

Ravens can emerge on top in defensive battle

Let's see if we can do better tonight. Houston at Baltimore should be a defensive battle, even without JJ Watt or Whitney Mercilus playing for the Texans. Texans QB Tom Savage settled in with a win last week, and he's very much like Joe Flacco, in fact Flacco transferred out of college at Pitt while Savage transferred in (though not at the same time, but they are both relatively immobile passers with good arms). Flacco throws a better deep ball, Savage may be more accurate with the shorter stuff. But the key for both of them is getting time to throw.

I am edging toward the Ravens -7.5 @ 20/21 even though that is a lot of points in what should be a low scoring game. Baltimore has three shutouts this season, and though they are all against offensively challenged teams (Bengals, Dolphins, Packers) that describes Houston perfectly. But paradoxically, I'm wondering if that 38 point over/under is set a little low, and over @ EVS is a bit of an outside value bet.

My best bet would be for DeAndre Hopkins to come up over 5.5 receptions @ 5/6, even though the Ravens are likely to double him for most of the game. Tight ends may get more attention, and I like Baltimore's Ben Watson to go over 23.5 yards and Houston's CJ Fiedorowicz to go over 22.5, both @ 5/6. And finally, Lamar Miller is the best running back on show, but I think under 19.5 carries @ 5/6 is worth a flutter.