NFL Christmas Day Tips: Festive flutters for the two games on the big day

Mike Carlson
24 December 2017

Can Nick Foles steer Philly to a win?

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The NFL doesn't even stop for Christmas day with a pair of fixtures featuring two Superbowl hopefuls in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Mike Carlson analyses their match-ups...

"The Steelers have a real tendency to play down to their opponents (and to play up as well), especially on the road. And I wonder if the release of veteran linebacker James Harrison might exacerbate that tendency. But even without Antonio Brown, they have enough weapons to win the game easily."

Happy Christmas! You might think it strange to see an NFL doubleheader on Christmas Day, but remember, this is America! More is always better! Chesnuts roasting on an open fire or sitting on the La-Z-Boy recovering from an OD of tryptophan while watching the game on the 72 inch 3D HD wide screen that Santa couldn't get down the chimney! After the deadly dozen games on Christmas Eve, what could be better?

A couple of winning bets, that's what! Though there is that old proverb about the turkeys betting on Christmas, isn't there? Sadly, Santa failed a bit on the Christmas Double-Header, though Pittsburgh at Houston and to a lesser extent Oakland at Philadelphia both looked pretty good when they did the schedules earlier this year. Even without knowing DeShaun Watson would replace Tom Savage at halftime of the opening game and light it up for the Texans, before suffering a season-ending injury. Or that Oakland would revert from playoff form last year, with the offense struggling with Derek Carr and a new coordinator, and a D that struggled with the old coordinator and has struggled just as much since Ken Norton Jr was fired. There aren't any more assistants for Jack Del Rio to throw under the bus that will take the Raiders to Vegas.

Meanwhile the Eagles were flying high until Carson Wentz, the odds-on league MVP got hurt, but they have played well with Nick Foles replacing him: well enough to take Oakland at home.

The Texans are 8 point home dogs, but I don't really feel comfortable with their offense being able to keep it close. Two things mitigate that feeling, however. The Steelers have a real tendency to play down to their opponents (and to play up as well), especially on the road. And I wonder if the release of veteran linebacker James Harrison might exacerbate that tendency. But even without Antonio Brown, they have enough weapons to win the game easily. I think if they take their foot off the pedal it will be with a lead, and I am tempted by the Under 45.5 at 20/21. I like Juju Smith-Schuster at evens to score a TD, and maybe Jesse James at 23/10, while Lamar Miller for the Texans is 6/4.

The Eagles are bigger favourites at home. I'm tempted by Eagles (-9 at 20/21) but you have to wonder if the Foles-led offense will continue to rack up points with the lead. They're such short odds on the moneyline that the home field advantage ought to outweight the visions of Christmas turkey dancing in the Eagles' players heads.

The Eagles are 4/7 to score first, which I think they ought to do, while the Raiders are 11/8 to score last, if you like the possibility of garbage time points. Carr under 244.5 yards passing at 5/6 isn't a bad shout, nor is Foles over 20 completions, also at 5/6. I kind of like Nelson Agholor to catch a TD pass at 15/8, but I like Brent Celek at 16/5 even better!

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a Good Night!