Week 10 was the first week in which I had a losing record in picks and in overall P/L for the week. All I can say is that was bound to happen given such parity in the NFL, but we adjusted our models slightly for the second half of the season, when you see more competitive matches as teams are fighting for their playoff lives. Note this week there is overall week value so bet accordingly. I would actually expect the defenses to start stepping up overall, with weather coming into effect with some of the games. Onto the picks.
St. Louis Rams @ Baltimore Ravens
2pts Back St. Louis to win the match 2.3611/8 on the Exchange
St. Louis finally realized how overrated Nick Foles actually is. Look for them to get back to their strengths of defence, using a strong front four to force Joe Flacco into some bad decisions, and giving Todd Gurley the ball 20 times or more. Foles is not starting and although the journeyman Case Keenum is no all-pro, he does take care of the ball and will not lose the game for the Rams, like Foles has done in the last three games. Rams win this one on a last second FG.
Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears
1pts Back Denver +1.5 @ 1.9210/11 on the Exchange
The Denver defense will be at full strength and, now that the King of the Ducks, Peyton Manning, is on the bench, Denver's offense will immediately be more effective. I see a steady dose of running and play action passing to lead them to victory. The Bears have been surprising but are a bit banged up and have not played well at home this year. Look for the Denver D to smother Cutler and the Bears this week, enough to get the W and start the press controversy and debate on whether or not, in future, Manning should be benched in favour of Osweiler. Sneaky play on the overs here in this game as well.
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins
1pts Back Over 47.5 @ 2.01/1 on the Exchange
Romo is back and the Dallas D is awful. For Miami, this is pretty much a must win game. These teams will put up points and unless Romo re-injures himself, they should score at least four touchdowns, in a meaningless game for the playoffs, but very important for pride and the organisation of Dallas. Weather isn't an issue in Miami so the overs is in play.
Bart's 2015 NFL P&L
Staked - 46pts
Returned - 63.88pts
P&L - +17.88pts