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NFL Divisional Round Tips: Stick with San Fran with home advantage to be huge

Paul Higham
18 January 2023
2 min read

Christian McCaffrey can star for the 49ers

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Paul Higham is back with his Divisional Round picks with just eight teams remaining in the NFL play-offs - with special touchdown tips included for all four games this weekend.

Mahomes has thrown TD passes to 11 different players
Bills v Bengals to go to final play - go high on points
Top seeded Eagles should be too strong for streaking Giants
49ers have won 11 straight games, McCaffrey has scored in last seven

What a weekend we had in the wildcard round, and now the big boys get involved with four huge NFL Divisional Round match-ups to get stuck into.

Latest Super Bowl odds

The Chiefs head the market after they sat out last week with a bye while the Bills had a tough victory over the Dolphins. The 49ers head the NFC contenders after looking sharp against the Seahawks and the Eagles will make their play-off bow this weekend against the Giants.

11/4 Chiefs
3/1 Bills
4/1 49ers
5/1 Eagles
15/2 Bengals
8/1 Cowboys
20/1 Giants
25/1 Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs

Saturday 21:30

Match Odds: 10/3 | 2/9
Spread: Chiefs -8.5
Points O/U: 52.5

It wasn't just that the Jags came from 27-0 down to beat the Chargers that was impressive, but just how Trevor Lawrence went from hopelessly flinging four first-half interceptions to tossing TDs for fun in the NFL's biggest ever play-off comeback.

The Jags now have huge belief, have won two must-win games in a row as part of a six-game streak and also have a pretty good defence that makes them a serious threat at Arrowhead.

Patrick Mahomes carved them open in a 27-17 win earlier this season, but again the Jags responded from 20-0 down to make a game of it and if they can only avoid falling so far behind then this will be close.

Touchdown Tip: Kelce & McKinnon TDs @

23/10

Especially if second-half Lawrence comes to play, as KC's defence is average at best, with tight end Evan Engram a particular receiving threat and receivers Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones and Zay Jones offering decent depth.

That second-half Jacksonville could get some joy here, and they never know when they're beaten, but they're kind of a Kansas City light version on offence - with the Chiefs having the most varied and efficient attack in football.

Mahomes had thrown TD passes to 11 different receivers this season and with Andy Reid having an extra week to draw up more ways to get Travis Kelce (12 TDs this season) and Jerrick McKinnon (10 TDs) into the end zone then you just can't back against KC moving on.

Bet: Chiefs to win by 1-13pts

7/5

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Saturday 01:15 (Sun)

Match Odds: 27/10 | 2/7
Spread: Eagles -7.5
Points O/U: 48.5

I absolutely loved Daniel Jones and the Giants' performance in Minnesota, and not just because it landed our bet, but they'll need another step up to beat Philly if Jalen Hurts is at full speed after resting his shoulder injury.

A harsh truth though is that the Eagles are better in almost every facet of the game, and the G-Men will need everything to go their way, huge games from Jones and Saquon Barkley and possibly Hurts to struggle to spring the upset.

Touchdown Tip: Brown & Jones to score @

11/2

On talent Philly should be Super Bowl favourites, and they would but for their sketchy late form without Hurts. They also have multiple ways to win, with Hurts leading a devastating run game but also with AJ Brown and Devonta Smith offering receiving talent as good as anything.

They kept Barkley to just 28 rushing yards in Week 14 so Brian Daboll will have to fgure out ways to get him the ball - while Jones connected well with Isaiah Jones and Darius Slayton last week.

Jones had seven first-down runs in a historic display last week, but the problem here is that even that may not be enough. And could you back him to outshine a healthy Hurts?

A big danger for the Eagles is being caught cold by a bouyant side fresh off a play-off win on the road, as we all know how quickly that Philly crowd can turn, but if they handle the pressure they'll get it done even though they'll be tested.

Bet: Eagles to win & over 47.5pts

13/10

NFL...Only Bettor

Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills

Sunday 20:00

Match Odds: 9/5 | 4/9
Spread: Bills -4.5
Points O/U: 48.5

We'll be seeing this play-off fixture a few times over the coming years with superstars Joe Burrow and Josh Allen here to stay in teams pretty well-matched.

Even the way they dealt with tough opponents without their own starting QBs last week was pretty similar - and if Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa played last week we could be looking at a Ravens-Dolphins showdown here.

I think Burrow will be more productive here than last week but that offensive line is still a worry, as only his houdini-like escapes prevented him being sacked more than four times by Baltimore.

Touchdown Tip: Diggs & Chase to score @

15/4

He'll no doubt get another big game out of Ja'Marr Chase but needs more from Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd to keep up with Allen, who somehow ended up throwing for 352 yards and three TDs despite being sacked SEVEN (7) times by Miami.

Allowing 31 points to a Miami team led by third-stringer Skylar Thompson must also be a big worry with Burrow coming to town, and the Bengals of course have the experience of making the Super Bowl last year to call on.

Expect big games from Stefon Diggs and 'Big Game' Gabe Davis for Buffalo, who have the edge on defence and offensive line - and crucially being at home adds to those small margins that give them the edge.

This one has the look of a game that'll come down to whoever has the ball last having a chance to win - so a safe bet on the result would be to give the Bengals a TD and go over on points. Bengals +7.5 & over 48.5pts comes in at 2/1

Bet: Over 50.5pts in the game

6/5

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers

Sunday 23:30

Match Odds: 8/5 | 1/2
Spread: 49ers -3
Points O/U: 45.5

My word, Dak Prescott looked good in Tampa didn't he? What a way for the Cowboys to win their first play-off game on the road in 30 years, but if they want another Dak's going to have to do that to the best defence in football.

Prescott's also got a point to prove after losing to the Niners in Dallas in last year's play-offs thanks to a late brain fade on his behalf, but against a defence that tied the league lead in interceptions and yards per carry it'll be tough sledding.

From The GOAT to Mr Irrelevant, Micah Parsons and the Dallas defence now face rookie third-stringer Brock Purdy who has lit-up this Niners offence in just six games. With him the team are averaging 0.19 expected points added (EPA) per play - which just eclipses Patrick Mahomes with the Chiefs.

Touchdown Tip: McCaffrey & Kittle to score @

7/2

Parsons will be out to unsettle the rookie all night, but nothing so far has managed to dent this young upstart's frightening confidence and moxie - we'll see if a defence that led the league with 22 turnovers can do the job.

I'm not sure about Dallas backing kicker Brett Maher after his astonishing four missed extra points in a row - they'll need every point here so hopefully he's over whatever mental yips got to him.

I've backed the 49ers to go all the way though and have no problem sticking to that here - they've scored 35-plus points in five of Purdy's six starts, and even if he's under pressure here George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are the perfect out balls.

McCaffrey's been a stud since joining mid-season and has scored in his last seven games, Kittle is Purdy's favourite target and has seven TDs in six (scoring a double in three games) and that's before you even get to the X-factor that is Deebo Samuel.

Bet: 49ers to win & over 46.5pts

21/10

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