NFL Betting: What have we learned going into Week 12?

Julio Jones could be in for a big night tonight against Arizona
Julio Jones could be in for a big night tonight against Arizona

It is Week 12 and where do things stand around the NFL? Neil Monnery has a look and gives a first TD pick in every game...

'As for Green Bay. Does anyone think they are any good? I think it is safe to say it is time to put a sign around their necks saying 'they're done' as they quite simply can't defend and have no running game.'

What we learned in Week 11 (and Thanksgiving Day)...


Lets start this week talking about the Cardiac Detroit Lions. They played on Thanksgiving so don't play today but they have now been behind in every single game they've played in the fourth quarter, yet won seven of them. Somehow they seem en route to the NFC North crown and a playoff spot despite really not being a very good team. However when it comes to crunch time Matthew Stafford is getting the job done so write them off at your peril.

In the middle game on Thursday we saw the Dallas Cowboys once again show us just how good they are. They took Baltimore's best on Sunday before getting past Washington on Thanksgiving. It seems like they are on a collision course with Seattle for all the marbles in the NFC late in January and personally I'd sign up for that right now.

The biggest disappointment last weekend was clearly Kansas City losing at home to Tampa Bay. The Chiefs have been quietly effective all season long but are playing in the most competitive division in the NFL. That loss really sets them back but they get to play Denver in the night game, which will be a big test of whether they are contenders or pretenders.

As for Green Bay. Does anyone think they are any good? I think it is safe to say it is time to put a sign around their necks saying 'they're done' as they quite simply can't defend and have no running game. Every week people think that Aaron Rodgers alone can lift them to being competitive at least but it just isn't the case.


The Fine Five


1. New England Patriots (No Change)
2. Dallas Cowboys (No Change)
3. Seattle Seahawks (No Change)
4. Oakland Raiders (No Change)
5. New York Giants (NEW)


What to watch for in Week 12


I think most of the interest and intrigue comes outside of the 6PM window this week as we see Carolina travel to Oakland and New England visit New York in the 9:25 slate. Both games have something worth watching. In the former, despite Carolina's constantly flirting with being done in a Green Bay sense, many still think they have an outside shot at the NFC South. Oakland are legit players so its a big game for both teams.

Listening to the talking heads last week and there was a lot of discussion about Tom Brady's footwork in the pocket and him having potentially lost a step. No-one doubts the calibre of his arm but if he has slowed in the pocket, it is something defenses will key in on. Will the Jets front four be able to signpost a way to stop Tom Brady?

The night game in Denver will very much be worth staying up late for. Both the Broncos and Chiefs sport 7-3 records and are in the mix in the AFC West and only a game back from the #1 overall seed in the conference. The Broncos have had a week off to rest up and get healthy. Is this the week they once again remind up that they are a serious challenger to win it all?

In a change of pace this week I'll pick out one potential first TD scorer in every match for the rest of Week 12.


Recommended Bets

1pt Back Mike Wallace to score the first TD in Ravens @ Bengals at 9/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Antonio Gates to score the first TD in Chargers @ Texans at 10/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Julio Jones to score the first TD in Cardinals @ Falcons at 7/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Delanie Walker to score the first TD in Titans @ Bears at 11/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Dolphins D/ST to score the first TD in 49ers @ Dolphins at 20/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Sterling Shepard to score the first TD in Ravens @ Bengals at 9/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Saints D/ST to score the first TD in Rams @ Saints at 20/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Allen Robinson to score the first TD in Jaguars @ Bills at 8/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Doug Baldwin to score the first TD in Seahawks @ Buccaneers at 9/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Dion Lewis to score the first TD in Patriots @ Jets at 13/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Cam Newton to score the first TD in Panthers @ Raiders at 9/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Jordan Norwood to score the first TD in Chiefs @ Broncos at 9/1 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Zach Ertz to score the first TD in Packers @ Eagles at 11/1 on the Sportsbook

Neil Monnery NFL P/L

2015:

Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts

2016:
Staked - 530pts
Returned - 480.59pts
P&L - -49.41pts

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