New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants: Weather could be key

Luca Bercelli
08 December 2012

Rain could cause dropped catches

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This one could go either way but Luca Bercelli believes the Total Points Spread is too high at 53.5...

"There are a few reasons to think that laying the Total Points at 53.5 @ 2.01/1 should be our number one play"

This is an interesting match-up and a harder one to call than the odds might suggest. Odds of 1.454/9 for an outfit that has lost three of its last four games seem plenty short enough, especially against a team as talented as the New Orleans Saints.

Giants backers will be hoping the ultra-competitive version turns up (the one that has destroyed the 49ers, Carolina and Green Bay this season) and not the one that folded against Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago.

New York actually played pretty well in the loss to Washington last time out but the RG3 problems they encountered on that occasion are not going to be an issue most weeks, and although Saints QB Drew Brees is up there with the best his toes don't twinkle quite as much as they used to.

He's still been able to rack up plenty of points for his offence this season as an average of 26.8 (sixth best in the league) indicates. Coincidentally the Giants have an identical points average and the conclusion you might draw is this will be a high scoring affair. Possible... but even if both teams put their averages on the board the line will only be covered by 0.3 of a point; not much of a cushion.

There are a few reasons to think that laying the Total Points (53.5) @ 2.01/1 should be our number one play. Firstly the forecast for the New York area isn't great with a 50% chance of rain the current prediction.

Rain equals more emphasis on the running game, more dropped catches and less points.

Also, we need to recognise that the Saints' potent offence has been misfiring of late and the normally safe Brees has thrown seven interceptions in his last two games. At their very best these two teams score points for fun, but the pressure of a must win game for both sides, some ropey recent form and the potential dodgy weather all lead to only one conclusion. Go low.

The outright win and handicap markets look spot on so I'm reluctant to get involved, but a gun to the head would provoke a skinny wager on the Saints (+5.5pts) @ 2.021/1. Anything that could ruin Giants' head coach Tom-sense of humour bypass-Coughlin's day is a bonus in my book, so we'll go with unpredictable New Orleans to be effective against equally unpredictable New York.

Recommended Bets

Lay Over 53.5 Total Pts @ 2.01/1
Back New Orleans Saints (+5.5pts) @ 2.021/1