NFL Betting: Brees set to lead the Saints to a big night in Carolina

Drew Brees is set to unleash an aerial attack on the Panthers secondary
Drew Brees is set to unleash an aerial attack on the Panthers secondary

Cam Newton and Drew Brees get together on Thursday night and we should expect a high-scoring thriller, says Neil Monnery...

'Just for the value I'm going to take the Saints at 2.77/4 straight up as I think this is a pick 'em game, so when you are on the fence, take the team at odds against.'

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers
Start-time: Friday 18 November, 01:25 GMT
TV: Live on Sky Sports
 


Overview


We were so close. So close to having a relevant Thursday night game to enjoy. The Panthers were fighting back after their 1-5 start, they had won two straight and were 17-0 up on the Chiefs on Sunday. Cam Newton had brought back the dab. They were showing themselves to be a contender. As for the Saints, Drew Brees led them down the field to score a late TD to tie it up against Denver and the extra point would put them in the lead. Brilliant!

Sadly for both these teams things went downhill and fast. The Broncos blocked the extra point attempt and ran it back for a defensive two point score to take down the Saints. As for the Panthers, they allowed the Chiefs to score 20 straight and they lost at home. Oh well.

As for tonight's game, I think there is one thing most pundits will agree on - neither of these two defenses are any good. Drew Brees and Cam Newton met in Week 6 and threw for 322 and 465 yards respectively, in a 38-41 shootout won by the Saints. All logic points to a similar type of game in the reverse fixture.

Brees was able to throw for 303 against the vaunted Denver defense on Sunday and his over/under line is 309.5 for this game. Seems a slam dunk over to me. He doesn't have the big game receivers that Newton has but he can throw it into tight windows. Newton will use his speedy receivers to stretch the field for big plays.

This game looks set to be an air it out, rock 'em sock'em kind of game and I plan on playing a lot of over lines on the points.


First Touchdown Scorer


Brandin Cooks heads the market at 9/1 with a plethora of players trading at 10/1 as both Newton and Brees like to spread the ball about. It is why I'm only playing one receiver over/under line later, they don't have go-to guys, just throwing it to whoever is open. This is why I'll take the best price possible for main receivers and spend a point on Devin Funchess and Coby Fleener both at 13/1.


Over/Under


The line has been set at 51.5pts, which I think is low. I was expecting the line to be around 54.5 with the quality of offense both team has but more than that, the lack of quality on the defensive side of the ball. They shared 79 points in the game in New Orleans and while I'm not sure it gets that high, you can get 5/2 for over 60.5pts and that is a value bet.

Both teams also have over/under lines at 23/20 set at 28.5pts for Carolina and 25.5pts for New Orleans. It would be a shocker if neither went over those points so back both for a profit. More chance of both going over than both going under.


The Spread & Straight-up Pick


The spread is set at Carolina -3.5pts and I don't really know what to think. The Panthers have been overvalued all season long due to their 15-1 regular season last year. I think the Saints are still just about in it but the Panthers lose on Thursday and they can book their holidays for January. Just for the value I'm going to take the Saints at 2.77/4 straight up as I think this is a pick 'em game, so when you are on the fence, take the team at odds-against.

Recommended Bets
3pt Back New Orleans to win straight up at 2.77/4 on the Exchange
3pt Back over 60.5pts at 5/2 on the extended line on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 28.5pts for Carolina at 23/20 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back over 25,5pts for New Orleans at 23/20 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back Devin Funchess over 39.5 receiving yards at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
6pt Back Drew Brees over 309.5 passing yards at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Devin Funchess to score the first TD at 13/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Coby Fleener to score the first TD at 12/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook

Neil Monnery NFL P/L

2015:

Staked - 211pts
Returned - 277.44pts
P&L - +66.44pts

2016:
Staked - 357pts
Returned - 366.19pts
P&L - +8.19pts

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