NFL Tipping Sheet: Week 11 Previews and Handicap picks

SportNeverSleeps.com
16 November 2012

Can the Steelers D get to Flacco?

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It's week 11 in the NFL, there's no clear favourite for either conference yet, the injuries are starting to mount up and the coaches are starting to sweat...

Arizona Cardinals @ Atlanta Falcons 18:00
Sunday 18:00
So Atlanta lost the last perfect record in the league last weekend to the resurgent Saints, that'll smart but it may prove to be the wake up they needed. Back in the Georgia Dome this Sunday the Falcons should have enough to get back to winning ways. Matt Ryan still threw for over 400 yards last week so there's nothing wrong with him but the Falcons were hesitant when it came to the red zone and it cost them the game, they need to get Michael Turner rolling before the playoffs arrive. The Cards have lost five in a row, their belief is at rock bottom. They'll be fresh after a bye but not fresh enough to get close to the Falcons in Atlanta.
Recommended Bet: Falcons -9.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday 18:00
The Chiefs were unlucky not to snatch a big win in Pittsburgh on Monday night, they played tough but had little innovation from the offence who is still being lead by unconvincing backup QB Matt Cassell. The most important moment of that game was when two of their Linebackers hit Roethlisberger, he's injured and it could be a while before he returns. Without Big Ben the Steelers may be in trouble and that gives Cincinnati a realistic shot at the playoffs. The Bengals did get that big win on the road last week, they dominated the Giants and Dalton threw 4 TDs. A.J. Green is still their main threat but they found other outlets too in that game. If they can limit Jamaal Charles and capitalise on the extra day of rest then they should get the win at Arrowhead.
Recommended Bet: Bengals -3

Cleveland Browns @ Dallas
Sunday 18:00
It's been another pretty disappointing season in Dallas but with a less than daunting remaining schedule and a relatively healthy squad all is not lost at 4-5. This Sunday they take on the Browns at home and should record their first consecutive win of the season after beating the Eagles in Philly last time out. Tony Romo has a wealth of receivers to aim for and the Browns have an dismal away record. There's no shame for the Browns, almost their entire starting offence are rookies or sophomores, think Weeden, Richardson, Gordon. The success was never going to come this year but as a long term plan this season could pay dividends over future seasons.
Recommended Bet: Cowboys -7

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Sunday 18:00
It's make or break for the Lions, at 4-5 they have to start a winning run to get back in the playoff picture. Stafford is turning into a star quarterback, it helps having the monstrous Calvin Johnson to aim at. It's the defence that has let them down despite possessing some big names and last week they lost to the Vikings in a game most expected them to easily win. They are talented but lack maturity and playing against a savvy Green Bay team this week may expose their weaknesses. The Packers had a much needed bye last week but will still have to do without the influential Clay Mathews. Also Aaron Rodgers is crying out for some new blood on the O Line but the good news for cheese heads is last time these two met in Motor City the Pack notched up 550 yards on offence. If the Lions fans can disrupt Rodgers' rhythm and he gets pressured by the Detroit pass rush then this could be a close contest but it should go to Green Bay.
Recommended Bet: Packers -3

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Sunday 18:00
This could get ugly for Jacksonville, only the moist loyal, optimistic or crazed Jags fan would travel to the Reliant Stadium expecting anything out of this one. The Texans are the most complete team in the NFL and the Jaguars are not only sharing the worst record in the league at 1-8 but are also without their one bright spark in pro bowl running back Maurice Jones Drew. This is a total mismatch hence the enormous handicap.
Recommended Bet: Jaguars +15.5

NY Jets @ St Louis Rams
Sunday 18:00
Against all expectations the Rams went to San Francisco last week and got a result, OK not the win but a tie in Candlestick was a big result for this St. Louis team. They showed they have real fighting spirit, QB Sam Bradford played well as did old battering ram Steven Jackson and in Danny Amendola they have a Welker-like receiver that is gold for a quarter back. The Jets are limping from week to week and showing negligible improvement, the main fault being laid at Sanchez's door. Rex Ryan vows to stick by his starting quarterback and will not yet turn to Tebow. I admire that faith, eventually Mark Sanchez will find his range and with weapons like one time Superbowl MVP Santonio Holmes to aim at there is no reason to believe it won't mean success. Gang Green may actually find respite away from the home pressure and could cause the upset in this one, it's time their season took a turn in the right direction.
Recommended Bet: Jets + 3.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Sunday 18:00
Potentially decisive game between two of the strugglers of the NFC East. Unfortunately it's not the highly anticipated Michael Vick v RG3 show that everyone wanted as Vick is still recovering from concussion. That means the Eagles will be led by rookie Nick Foles and he looks raw. Andy Reid will be nervous, the consensus is he already has one foot out the door. The Redskins are coming off a bye and their running attack should be way too much for the Eagles to deal with. The Skins will take the win in this one but realistically I doubt either of these teams will be claiming a wildcard.
Recommended Bet: Redskins -3.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
Sunday 18:00
Carolina showed shoots of recovery last week despite the loss, at least Cam Newton threw a couple of touchdowns. I keep saying it, there is a decent team waiting to emerge in Carolina but they need a run of winnable games to get their confidence up. What they don't need is a visit from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are in scintillating form, they are coming off a hatrick of wins and have been averaging over 35 points in that sequence. Their rush defence is now ranked number one in the league and their offence is developing nicely, Freeman is doing the simple things well and Doug Martin has been a revelation in his rookie season. Looks tough for the Panthers but they should push the Bucs close.
Recommended Bet: Buccaneers -1.5

New Orleans Saints @ Oakland Raiders
Sunday 21:05
Drew Brees and Carson Palmer should serve up a feast of long distance passing in Oakland in the first of the later games on Sunday. Those two currently occupy the 1st and 3rd positions for QB passing yards. Unfortunately that productivity has failed to translate into winning records. The key to this one however could be the ground game. If the Saints manage to take the pressure off Brees' arm then they will reap the rewards, usually when the Saint establish the run they win the game as Brees has more space to exploit. Chris Ivory has recently returned to the fold after injury and it is no coincidence that the Saints have enjoyed a three game winning series. As for the Raiders they will have to do without their star running back Darren McFadden and that could hamper their offensive options. Look for New Orleans to take advantage, claim a road win and get back to .500.
Recommended Bet: Saints -4.5

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
Sunday 21:25
Is young star Andrew Luck ready to take on Tom Brady and the Patriots. Seems unlikely but with both teams sitting at 6-3 this will be a closer contest than most would have predicted a couple of months ago. The Pats have developed the most lethal offence in the sport and the Colts won't expect to stop them, merely slow them down. But the reason the Patriots are only winning two thirds of their games is their pass defence, it's porous and Andrew Luck will have chances to hurt them deep with Reggie Wayne. Enough to keep Indianapolis with 9.5 points?
Recommended Bet: Patriots-9.5

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos
Sunday 21:25
After injury ruled him out for a year and at the age of 34 it was a gamble for the Denver Broncos to put the franchises hopes in the arms of Peyton Manning. Some gambles pay off, he has looked as classy as ever, his poise and control of the offence has led the Broncos to a 6-3 lead in the AFC West division and he seems to improve each week. The Broncos also now sport a competitive defence and with the returning D.J. Williams at linebacker they should only improve in the coming weeks. The Chargers have had an inconsistent season but are still in with a shot of the wild card spots, they traditionally do well at Mile high but this one looks too tough an ask for Phil Rivers and co.
Recommended Bet: Broncos - 7.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday 01:20
Ding Ding, this one is gunna be a knockout. There is no other divisional rivalry like this, every time they meet it's a foul, dirty hard fought contest...you gotta love it. Both these teams traditionally pride themselves on having a hard hitting defence that takes no prisoners but this year there seem to be a change of emphasis from one team at least. The Ravens are now having to do without the iconic Ray Lewis and have abandoned a reliance on their defence in favour of unleashing Flacco's no huddle offence and it's reaping rewards; last week they put up 55 points against the Raiders.
The Steelers still have the defence, they are ranked top in the league, year on year Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick Lebeau finds new ways to stop old foes. Another classic Steeler trait is also back, the power back, in fact they now find themselves with three! Rashard Mendenhall should suit up after injury and join both Jonathan Dwyer and Issac Redman to give coach Tomlin numerous options at running back. All of them are heavy, work hard and love to smash it up the gut. But the Steelers are not without problems. Big Ben, as tough and durable as he is, took one hit too many last week, he sprained a shoulder and dislocated a rib, the injury is dangerous and there is no set time scale on his return. Byron Leftwich is an experienced backup and will plug the gap but it's a major worry for Pittsburgh, they have never beaten the Ravens without Big Ben.
Recommended Bet: Ravens - 2.5

Chicago Bears @ San Francisco 49ers
Tuesday 01:30
It's Monday Night Football and the 7-2 Bears travel to Candlestick to take on the 6-2 49ers with both teams topping their division. Neither team won last week and they will both be hungry to gain the upper hand against opposition that they could meet again in the playoffs. The problem is neither team will be able to play their staring quaterbacks, both Alex Smith and Jay Cutler will sit out through head injuries so in steps Jason Campbell and Colin Kaepernick. I prefer Campbell out of those two but with the 49ers home field advantage the difference is negligible. Kaepernick showed last week that he trusts his running ability but will he be that brave against a growling Beard defence. More than likely that Frank Gore will be given a lot of responsibility with the ball and the number one rated rushing 49ers will try and grind out the yards.
The Bears already have a low rank passing game and this may be a battle of attrition for the second time in a row on MNF.
Recommended Bet: Bears