Having failed to make a case for the Jacksonville Jaguars not being the worst team in the league earlier in the week, I'm now confronted by a similar proposition as the Kansas City Chiefs step into the Primetime spotlight of Monday Night Football. Like the Jaguars, the Chiefs enter Week 10 with a 1-7 record. Like the Jaguars, there has been more to mock than merit about the Chiefs' displays to date.
Kansas City have now lost five straight games. And along the way they also lost their first-choice quarterback in Brady Quinn, who succumbed to a concussion against the Oakland Raiders towards the end of October. It transpires that Quinn unwisely tried to battle through his head injury - despite feeling dazed and even donning the wrong helmet on the sideline - before a subsequent sack ruled him out for good.
Having aggravated the concussion's severity, Quinn now misses another big match against the Pittsburgh Steelers - a game in which his replacement, Matt Cassel, will try and reassert his credentials to the starting berth. In truth, Cassel doesn't have a hard act to follow. But his last couple of games have been defined by the same lack of productivity which characterised his own early season, before Quinn got the gig. And whereas Quinn is younger and will get his time, many in Kansas believe that Cassel has had his.
It's all a long way from Cassel's 2008 beginnings in the league when he stepped in as back-up to Tom Brady (torn ACL) in New England. He lead the rudderless Patriots to within a whisker of the play-offs. It was enough to earn him a lucrative trade to the Chiefs as starter on Brady's return in 2009.
While Cassel has had some success at Arrowhead (featuring the 2010 AFC West title), his form has tailed off badly this term. Having looked like a world-beater in the first half of the Chiefs' opening game against the Atlanta Falcons (who lost their unbeaten tag on Sunday), Cassel has set about a rotten run in which he has thrown 11 interceptions and fumbled the ball eight times (losing seven). Small wonder he was benched.
Still, you don't become a bad quarterback overnight and Cassel hasn't been helped by the players around him. Kansas have committed an embarrassing 29 turnovers in the NFL this season - 10 more than their closest offender and 21 more than their next opponents, the efficient Steelers.
You either take the view that such a turnover rate is a sign of a team's collective ineptitude, or a rank streak of bad luck. The truth, though, surely lies somewhere in between and the Chiefs are certainly due a change of fortune. If Cassel can cut out the needless mistakes - which he can do on the big stage, as evidenced by his 3-0 MNF record - they might even get close to the Steelers with the eyes of the nation watching. Their teamsheet is long on talent (Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe) but short on belief. MNF can change that, if only for a game.
A 12-point handicap eloquently demonstrates that the esteemed Vegas Line wonders whether now is the time to be taking on a resurgent Pittsburgh. The Steelers produced a deserved comeback win against the Super Bowl champs last week and are heavy favourites to make the Chiefs look like chumps this time. Nevertheless, the suspicion remains that this Steel Curtain is no longer the impervious shell which made Pittsburgh postseason perennials.
Storied safety Troy Polamalu misses another game (he's been out since Week Four with a damaged right calf) and Will Allen has struggled to fill his shoes in pass coverage. This fact alone offers Cassel hope, while the Steelers are also not what they were on offense. True, they've unexpectedly got a running game together in recent weeks with Isaac Redman, but I do still have concerns over Ben Roethlisberger's faltering physical frame. His throwing arm still needs surgery if he's ever to return to peak performance, while he moves like a QB who has been absorbing the blitz for too long. One more big hit in the wrong place and Big Ben will strike midnight, with darkness inevitably falling on Pittsburgh's play-off push.
Whether the Chiefs D can get to Roethlisberger is, of course, a moot point. However, I'm confident they get within range of a generous handicap at the very least. Back them on the outright too, albeit for smaller stakes. It could be the biggest collapse at Heinz Field since Bane came here to shoot The Dark Knight Rises.
Recommended Bets:
Back Kansas City Chiefs (+12.5 points) on the Match Point Spread @ 1.9620/21 or better
Back Kansas City Chiefs (+7 points) on the First-Half Point Spread @ 1.910/11 or better
Back Kansas City Chiefs on the Money Line @ 6.25/1 or better
Back Over 42.5 Total Points @ 1.824/5 or better