Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions: Stingy D wins it for the visitors

Neil Monnery
22 November 2017

Case Keenum has won the Minnesota Vikings starting job because of his good performance

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It is the annual Turkey Day feast of football and Neil Monnery kicks off our previews with the opening game from Ford Field...

'With Latavius Murray, Dalvin Cook and Jerick McKinnon all splitting time and getting carries, it is hard not to like that three-headed backfield monster.'

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Thursday November, 17:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports Action & Main Event

For the Lions...

Matthew Stafford is quietly becoming one of the best signal callers in the NFL. After signing a contract that made him the highest paid player in the NFL, he's shown no signs of a letting up. When you consider that he lacks the calibre of a Megatron to throw to these days, his numbers are right up there.

19 Touchdowns to five picks this season but in November, his numbers are even more impressive with a 7:1 ratio. I have a lot of time for the former Georgia Bulldog and with this game being inside, expect a good night stats wise for the 29 year-old.

My biggest issue with the home team is the lack of quality surrounding him. Golden Tate has emerged as a go-to guy having averaged 69 yards receiving through ten games. Disappointingly though, he's only tasted touchdown glory on three occasions.

In the backfield Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick are distinctly middle of the pack. This game will be on Stafford's arm as they aren't getting it done against the Vikings front seven on the ground.

For the Vikings...

Last week there was talk that Minnesota were set to hand over the reigns of the offense back to Teddy Bridgewater after a prolonged injury absence. Fans will be delighted that didn't happen. Case Keenum is impressing despite an average career but is clearly the right man in the right place.

Even though I'm a big proponent of the TD/Int stat (Keenum is 12:5 on the season), he passes the eye test when you watch the film. With Adam Thielen turning into one of the most dynamic receivers around, he has that number one guy who has both the route-running ability to get free from his defender and speed to turn short gains into chunk plays.

With Latavius Murray, Dalvin Cook and Jerick McKinnon all splitting time and getting carries, it is hard not to like that three-headed backfield monster.

One last thing, no team in the NFC has given up fewer points than the Vikings.

The Picks

The line has been set at Minnesota-3 and that looks more than fair. After seeing the way the Vikings dealt with Jared Goff and the LA Rams on Sunday, I have faith that these guys are the real deal. Taking the away team -3 is available at 2.0621/20 on the Exchange.

Points-wise the line has been set at 44.5 and seems pretty much right on the money. I don't see the home team scoring big points so I'm leaning the under. That is available at 1.981/1 on the Exchange.

On the side markets, I'm going to Betfair's #OddsOnThat feature as I can see Matthew Stafford and Case Keenum both throwing for 300+ yards is available at 8/1. The Detroit man should make it with relative ease so you are pretty much getting a big price on Minnesota's QB doing the same. He doesn't have a big arm but yards after the catch count. Plenty of value here.

Recommended Bets

3pt Back Minnesota-3 at 2.0621/20 on the Exchange
1pt Back under 44.5pts at 1.981/1 on the Exchange
1pt Back Matthew Stafford and Case Keenum both throwing for 300+ yards at 8/1 on the Betfair Sportsbook