Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys: Cousins to fail another primetime test as Cowboys roll on

Mark Kirwan
09 November 2019

Kirk Cousins will be tested by Dallas' defence on Sunday night

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The Vikings quarterback has a reputation for not showing up on the big occasion. With Dallas finding their form, it's worth backing another no-show on Sunday, writes Mark Kirwan...

"We've seen Cousins put up performances like this before though. Kansas City and Philadelphia are the only teams they've played in that span with winning records, and the Chiefs still ground out a 26-23 win last week despite Cousins' three touchdowns and Matt Moore starting."

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys
Monday, 01:20
Live on Sky Sports Action

Cowboys on winning trail

The Cowboys are back on Sunday Night Football and that means we've to once again make a call on one of the more frustrating teams in the league.

Maybe Monday's black cat sensation has turned fortune in our favour when it comes to calling this team.

If we didn't have @saquon, we should sign that cat! The cat was elusive! @Giants

pic.twitter.com/Z9TDBVA8Ds
? Michael Strahan (@michaelstrahan) November 5, 2019

The trouble is, when they're healthy, Dallas are just about irresistible to me. The offence revolves around Ezekiel Elliott, one of a handful of true workhorse backs currently active across the NFL. He carried the team for much of their slog past the Giants on Monday night, and then their passing game took advantage of his 23 carries for 139 yards with late scores to blowout their NFC East rivals.

And while Zeke's talent is unquestioned, it's supplemented by one of the league's strongest, most consistent lines - when everyone is healthy.

These two components working in harmony should open up the playbook for quarterback Dak Prescott and OC Kellen Moore. I say "should" because they've struggled at times to find the right balance between the run and pass against better teams. The temptation has often been to ride on Elliott's rushing talent, which then becomes very predictable for opposing defences.

Their defence is doing it's best to take the pressure off the Elliott, Prescott and the rest. They added Michael Bennett, a multiple Super Bowl-winning lineman, in recent weeks, and already had DeMarcus Lawrence, Robert Quinn and Maliek Collins, meaning they've a defensive front few can rival. Linebacker Leighton Vander Esch has missed time recently, but the experienced Sean Lee has sprung from the bench to fill in, and that means Dallas are well-placed to cope with whatever Minnesota throw at them this week.

All relative for Cousins

They'll be helped all the more by Viking Adam Thielen missing this game. He's QB Kirk Cousins' most reliable target, but a hamstring complaint has ruled him out, meaning any passing production will come from Stefon Diggs, Laquon "I can't believe he's still in the league" Treadwell and rookie Olabisi Johnson.

Thielen's absence is the second in three weeks and his injury came when Cousins was enjoying his best spell as a Viking. Following a Week 4 loss to Chicago where the Vikings lost 16-6 and failed to score a touchdown, 2018's highest-profile free agent collected three straight QB ratings of 134 or more and threw for 13 TDs versus just one interception in the subsequent five games.

We've seen Cousins put up performances like this before though. Kansas City and Philadelphia are the only teams they've played in that span with winning records, and the Chiefs still ground out a 26-23 win last week despite Cousins' three touchdowns and Matt Moore starting. Cousins will need to win big games like Sunday's primetime trip to Dallas before he'll convince many critics.

This team, however, is more designed for running the ball, with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison looking as good a pair of backs as any team in the league possesses. Cook leads the league in attempts, rushing yards and is second in rushing touchdowns this season, while rookie Mattison has impressed in limited action.

They are, however, starting to see problems on defence. They couldn't get to grips with Matt Moore and Tyreek Hill last week and had a chance to win that game with a stop in the closing minutes. Instead, the Chiefs drove for over them for the winning score. While the line remains strong, with Danielle Hunter, Everson Griffin still in the rotation, it's the secondary that's slipped in recent weeks. It's hard to play a run-heavy game if your defence can't get stops. Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Dak Prescott will hope to take advantage.

The Picks

Despite the heartbreaks of previous punts, I'm going to stand by the Cowboys in this. As a general rule, if Dallas are healthy along both lines, they're well set to beat weaker teams and challenge stronger ones.

While Cam Fleming has been ruled out, Zack Martin, La'el Collins and Tyron Smith will all play, and that should mean Kellen Moore can establish the run and allow his QB to benefit from play-action as they probe a Minnesota secondary minus Andrew Sendejo and possibly Trae Waynes.

Also worth noting, Kirk Cousins' record in primetime TV games is 2-6-1 for his career against the spread, and 0-2-1 on the road as a Viking against the spread. That makes the Cowboys a strong pick -3 on the handicap at 1.9420/21.

On the total of 48, the best option is under. On average, these teams combined allow just under 35.5 points per game. Thielen's a big loss for Minnesota, and Dallas should be all over Stefon Diggs, meaning the Vikes' pass game will be curtailed. If the home defence can contain Cook, it's hard to see where many points will come from for the road team. 48 looks too high in that scenario.

For a scorer bet, Ezekiel Elliott is the clear option for an Anytime runner at 8/15 in a Same Game Multi. He's scored six times in eight games, all of them on rushing plays, and figures to be the centre-piece of any Cowboys win. Combined with the Under 48.5 and Cowboys -3.5, it'll pay out at 11/2.

Personally, though I prefer to look at longer prices for TD scoring. Jason Witten is an intriguing name this week. First, he saw a season-high nine targets on Monday, hauling in eight of them. He's also third in targets this season for the Cowboys but has just two scores, so volume could dictate he sneaks in for another this week.

With Amari Cooper coming into the game after an MRI scan this week on his knee, and Michael Gallup perpetually carrying some injury, there's potential for him to see a larger share of work here, and that makes 19/1 for the first TD good value. 10/3 in the anytime market is also worth a look.

A final bonus recommendation. If the game goes as I expect, Dallas back-up RB Tony Pollard could see work late as the home team run out the clock and rest Ezekeiel Elliott. Rookie Pollard has already fulfilled this role in several games this season and has one score to show for it. He's worth a very small stake at 19/1 in the last TD scorer market for that reason.