NFL Week 16 Tipsheet: Visiting Rams so much better than the Titans

Mike Carlson
22 December 2017

Mike believes the LA Rams are so much better than the Titans

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A feast of NFL action is on offer on Christmas Eve, so put your feet up, enjoy the games, and hope that Mike Carlson can gift-wrap us some winners...

"I think the Rams will be able to run; they may have trouble stopping the Titans on the ground, but Mike Mularkey's offense is so plodding I think Wade Phillips will have solutions for it."

It's Christmas weekend and the NFL knows how to celebrate right. No games on Thursday to ruin the celebrations, but a double-header on Saturday, and then an almost full slate on Christmas Eve to keep you amused while wrapping presents, recovering from carolling, or just sitting in front of the fire contemplating the next-day's turkey.

There are a lot of home dogs this week, which is always a tough situation, and who knows but that the holiday cheer might complicate things! Meanwhile, yours truly will be spending Christmas Eve serenading listeners to Talksport 2, with four hours of football from 5pm Sunday. And I'll be hoping I'm not the Christmas turkey after considering these bets/

I Hope you all have a very Merry Christmas. Good luck with the games, and remember, read Iron Mike's columns sensibly! I'll be back as usual on Monday with some tasty Christmas day crackers...

Best Bet: Los Angeles Rams -7 @ 20/21 at Tennessee

This was 6, then 6.5 earlier in the week, and I suspect it will continue to rise so I'd grab it quickly. I liked it better when it was less than a touchdown, but I'm still willing to project a Rams' win and figure a push at worst. I concede there is an element of doubt here; the Rams are travelling from the West to the East, they're playing on the road for a second week in a row, there's the whole holiday thing, but realistically they are so much better a team than the Titans, who are about as unlikely an 8-6 team as you can imagine; and I say that having thought they were the best team in their division last season.

I think the Rams will be able to run; they may have trouble stopping the Titans on the ground, but Mike Mularkey's offense is so plodding I think Wade Phillips will have solutions for it. I usually hesitate to make a visitor giving points a best bet, but because it's Christmas I'll make an exception.

Value Bet: Dallas -5 @ Evens v Seattle

This is a tough one. The Cowboys get Zeke Elliott and Sean Lee back (but for how long in Lee's case) but probably don't have Tyron Smith to do the blocking. Elliott's return suggests they will try to road grade, which will be easier for Smith's replacement, Byron Bell, and they will have looked at the 241 yards the Seahawks gave up to the Rams' three tailbacks last week. But Seattle could have the bounce-back in mind; Pete Carroll is one of the league's foremost rah-rah guys and there is nothing Seattle would like better now than to be spoilers of the so-called 'America's Team'.

There is a sense the Cowboys don't deal with pressure very well, fuelled mostly by watching coach Jason Garrett clapping on the sidelines like he was watching his kids' nativity play, but I like the odds here and think the Cowboys might keep their playoff hopes alive.

Outside Bet: New York Giants at Arizona Over 40.5 Points @ Evens

An intentional safety is a bad beat on an over/under like I had last week, but I can see both these teams' misfiring offenses challenging the 20 point mark in this one, confounding almost everyone. I'm also willing to take Jacksonville (-4 at 20/23) at San Francisco, even though it means bucking the power of Jimmy G, who is now 5-0 as a starter in the NFL, 3-0 with the previously hapless Niners. Garoppolo hasn't yet faced anything like the Jaggernaut defense, however, and I don't think he has the supporting cast to overcome that.