Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Start-time: Friday 16 December, 01:25 GMT
TV: Live on Sky Sports
The Rams sacked Head Coach Jeff Fisher on Monday after losing 42-14 at home on Sunday afternoon. They were 42-0 down at one point and the stands were half empty. It was a move that needed to happen but did it have to happen right now? Fisher was 3-0 against the Seahawks in their three meetings over the past two seasons.
The Sportsbook has the spread set at 16 points which is mind blowing. It isn't as though Seattle are playing well at the moment, coming off a six turnover performance and being blown out in Green Bay on Sunday, they relinquished their hold of the NFC #2 seed. Spotting 16 points seems an awful lot to me.
When you look at the two rosters you can see why the spread is so long though. Jared Goff has done absolutely nothing since finally winning the starting job. His total QBR through four games is 26.8. The next worst in the league for any QB who has started at least two games is the man he replaced Case Keenum who sits at 44.5. Remember this guy was the overall #1 pick in the draft. You have to wonder just what the scouts saw. Luckily for the Rams despite Sunday's debacle, they can play some defense and should be able to keep some respectability.
Seattle though have superior talent all over the shop but are missing Earl Bennett who is the heart and soul of that defense. On offense they need to feed Thomas Rawls who has been running well in recent weeks, picking up lots of yards. Russell Wilson could do with not throwing five interceptions like he did against Green Bay.
If this game was being played through Artificial Intelligence then Seattle would win with ease. However this is reality...
I'm going down the primary running back route here with Thomas Rawls at 5/1 and Tavon Austin at 12/1.
I'll also double up on both defenses to score at any time considering the way they both played on Sunday and we are coming off the short week. Seattle D/ST are at 13/5 to score at any time with LA at 4/1..
The line has been set at 38.5pts, which I think is fair although I am strongly leaning on the over. When a line is set so low, it only takes a couple of freak plays and you have two touchdowns. We saw that on Monday night with a muffed punt and a fumble from a kick-off gave the Ravens 14 points. This took that game from a comfortable under to a big over.
The Spread & Straight-up Pick
The spread is set at Seattle -16pts which I've already made clear I don't like. The Rams will surely have some sort of bounceback with a new interim Head Coach and they've beaten Seattle in three straight games. I have to take the points.
Straight up the value isn't even worth it for a Seattle pick. If you like the Rams then they are currently trading at 11.010/1 on the Exchange.
3pt Back Los Angeles to win with 16 points at 10/11 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 38.5 total points at 1.9210/11 on the Exchange
3pt Back over 72.5 rushing yards for Thomas Rawls at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back over 76.5 receiving and rushing yards for Tavon Austin at 5/6 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back Los Angeles D/ST to score Anytime at 4/1 on the Sportsbook
3pt Back Seattle D/ST to score Anytime at 13/5 on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Tavon Austin to score the first TD at 12/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook
1pt Back Thomas Rawls to score the first TD at 5/1 in the First Touchdown scorer market on the Sportsbook