Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys: Elliott's availability a timely boost

Mark Kirwan
04 November 2017

Despite his availability, Mark Kirwan thinks Dallas could win this without Elliott

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

Mark Kirwan previews what could be Ezekiel Elliott's final game for some time as the Dallas Cowboys host early season darlings, the Kansas City Chiefs...

"Even without Elliott, the Cowboys would've been a marginal favourite for this game. Though any team would feel a loss like Zeke, the Cowboys still have a strong offensive line that can manufacture a running game in most situations."

Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 21:25
Live on Sky Sports Action & Sky Sports Main Event

A week is a long time in the NFL. Several teams have seen their fates altered with moves before the trade deadline, and Houston have gone from the high of last week's spectacular shootout in Seattle (and the city picking up a World Series) to the crushing low of losing their franchise quarterback for, at best, this season. Arguably the wildest swings of fortune have been in Dallas, where the Ezekiel Elliott suspension drama continues to confound.

Last week the Cowboys' star running back delivered a bruising performance against an under-strength Washington defence, corralling 150 yards and two touchdowns in a signature display of powerful running.

The unconfirmed suspension drove Elliott to pound out every possible yard, while the weather and game situation dictated a run-heavy approach, especially in the second half. A monsoon-like deluge marred that game, washing away some of the Redskins' postseason hopes. It also could have been the high-water mark for Dallas this season because of Elliott's likely absence.

Since then Elliott's suspension was confirmed on Tuesday, only to be stayed, once again, on Friday, due to a further appeal. He's allowed to play this week, but beyond that his prospects are less certain.

He could still miss crucial weeks this season, including divisional games against the Eagles, Redskins and Giants. However, for now, he's available, and his value should be clear in their Week 9 meeting with the early season darlings of 2017, the Kansas City Chiefs.

It has not been all sunshine for KC in recent weeks. Their formidable homefield form failed to make a dent in the Steelers in Week 6, a 19-13 loss showing their offence can be curtailed. Then Oakland stole an unforgettable victory over Andy Reid's men with an untimed down in Week 7's Thursday Night Football.

Last week's 29-19 win over the Broncos halted their downward slide, but Trevor Siemian was sabotaging the league-best Denver defence's efforts throughout that game, so it would be foolish to read too much into that win.

Looking at what the Broncos managed defensively, Alex Smith was held to below .500 completions for the first time since 2013 when throwing 20 times or more. Rookie sensation Kareem Hunt was also limited, failing to reach 100 yards from scrimmage for the first time in his short NFL career.

Tight end Travis Kelce was a ray of light, and Tyreek Hill can break open any game, but the Chiefs do not look the stampeding the force they did through five weeks this season.

More worrying, issues also persist on defence, where the Chiefs rank 28th in rushing defence and give up 14 yards per reception in pass defence. Only the Colts secondary is worse. The Colts! Forcing five turnovers forced last week was great, but they can only wish they faced that Broncos offence every week.

And now, the hope that Elliott's expected absence brought is gone.

Even without Elliott, the Cowboys would've been a marginal favourite for this game. Though any team would feel a loss like Zeke, the Cowboys still have a strong offensive line that can manufacture a running game in most situations. Given KC run defence this season, Dallas's linemen should be able to dictate the flow of the game on the ground, whoever is handling the ball. The fact that Elliott is now available just piles strength upon strength for Dallas.

And even if the run game wasn't fully functioning in Elliott's absence, in Dak Prescott they have a QB recreating the form of his rookie season. Prescott is picking up 7.3 yards every time he runs with the ball, and has thrown for 14 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. He has Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley available this week despite both appearing on the injury report. NFL sack leader DeMarcus Lawrence is also healthy, and defensive tackle Maliek Collins will suit up as well, despite a foot issue.

The Picks

The handicap line has fluctuated throughout the week, and I'd have preferred it to stay around Dallas -1/-1.5 where it was prior to Elliott becoming available, but I am still happy to take Dallas -2.5 points at 1.9110/11 or above on the Exchange. If you want to play a bit safer, Dallas -1 is also available at 1.84/5. Dallas ought to win this game given the issues Kansas have on defence and the opportunity they have to dominate the line of scrimmage.

Both of these teams are tending to go over on Total Points markets this season, KC six times and Dallas five. The line has been set at 53 or thereabouts, which is quite high, but both teams are capable of scoring heavily, and the price on the Exchange of 1.981/1 seems fair given the offensive power of both teams.

Elliott's availability is the big story around this game, and his possible absence from next week is, again, worth bearing in mind from a betting point-of-view. Elliott is currently available at [23/10] on the Sportsbook to be Dallas's First Towndown Scorer. Given his two TD performance last week, how porous KC's run defence is, and how motivated Elliott will be, it could be worth a punt.

Recommended Bets

Dallas Cowboys -2.5 on the Handicap market @ 1.9110/11
Over 53 on the Total Points market @ 1.981/1
Ezekiel Elliott on the First Dallas Touchdown Scorer @ [23/10]