Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears: Surging KC can shutdown limp Bears offence on Sunday night

Mark Kirwan
21 December 2019

Travis Kelce and Kansas City look like serious Super Bowl contenders

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The Chiefs are getting in position for a Super Bowl run thanks to their improved defence, and the Bears are unlikely to hinder their progress in Week 16, writes Mark Kirwan...

"If Kansas City had this above-league-average defence last season, they'd probably be defending Super Bowl champions now. When Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce put up huge numbers, or Mahomes escapes the pocket to make a big play, it's worth more now because their opponents will find it that little bit harder to claw back those points."

Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears
Monday, 01:20
Live on Sky Sports Action

Chiefs showing Super Bowl credentials

While Patrick Mahomes remains the face and focal point of all attention around the Kansas City Chiefs, cause for optimism around the Chiefs' chance of a second Super Bowl title is growing because of their improvement on defence.

Of course, it's great to have the defending league MVP all the same - and especially considering his season looked to have ended in Week 7 when his knee twisted in a way it's not meant to against the Broncos.

Luckily for Andy Reid's team, the third-year signal-caller had not suffered as serious an injury as first feared and was back just over a fortnight later.

That game, a 35-32 loss to the resurgent Titans, is their last defeat. They've won four on the bounce since against their three divisional rivals and the team who toppled them in the AFC title game last season, the New England Patriots.

More noteworthy still, they've done it while limiting their four opponents to just over 11 points per game on average.

The Patriots managed 16 on their home turf against the stout KC front - compare that with last season's playoff showdown, where the Chiefs were knocked off 37-31 at Foxborough. Most galling of all on that occasion, the game was essentially decided by the coin-flip for overtime's first possession - the Chiefs defence just couldn't hold out Tom Brady when the Pats got the ball and their explosive offence had to sit and watch as Super Bowl hopes fell apart.

Long-time defensive coordinator Bob Sutton was let go within days of the defeat and former Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo arrived, along with a much improved secondary. Often-injured Tyrann Mathieu has become the centre of gravity in their new defensive unit, with rookie Juan Thornhill contributing significantly, and veterans Kendall Fuller and Bashaud Breeland making them a much tougher test in the pass-heavy NFL of 2019. They rank sixth in defensive passing DVOA, which more than balances out their 30th spot in the rushing category.

If Kansas City had this above-league-average defence last season, they'd probably be defending Super Bowl champions now.

When Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce put up huge numbers, or Mahomes escapes the pocket to make a big play, it's worth more now because their opponents will find it that little bit harder to claw back those points. That makes the Chiefs a very dangerous team heading into January.

Lame Bears

Oh, and the Bears are here too.

In fairness to Chicago, it's good to see some fight from a team that had looked like it could crater under the weight of their quarterback's crushingly disappointing third-year.

We've seen in recent years - Jacksonville's roiling dysfunction immediately springs to mind - what can happen when a QB taken way too early in the draft torpedoes the Super Bowl chances of a Championship-level defence.

Fortunately for the Bears staff, if not necessarily their supporters, Mitchell Trubisky has regained some of his confidence and composure in recent weeks.

We can only surmise that the shoulder injury suffered earlier in the season still hampered his play during the span of five losses in six games when he alternated starting duties with Chase Daniel as he has hit that just-about-competent level of play in recent weeks coach Matt Nagy's been looking for.

Though we cannot overlook the level of opposition either. Yes, the Bears were still alive against Green Bay last week to the final second (perhaps this should tell us more about the Packers than Chicago) but wins over the Giants and Lions are nothing to get too excited about.

They did beat up on the Cowboys at Soldier Field as well, which deserves some credit, but Dallas seemingly flail between brilliant and brutal from one week to the next, so I'd be reluctant to draw too many conclusions from that.

The defence remains solid, though not as spectacularly ferocious as last season - Khalil Mack had just one tackle last week in what should've been a fierce contest against the Packers - and Akiem Hicks' return helps. The offence has shown it can beat bad teams but stuttered against the Packers last week again. Is there any reason to think they'll be much better this week?

The Picks

I can't see one.

The only note of caution I would sound is regarding the potential for weather to interfere with the Chiefs' gameplan on Sunday. As of Saturday morning, clear skies and relatively hospitable temperatures are expected in Chicago on Sunday night.

That's good news for the Chiefs, who are still playing for a potential bye-week in the playoffs, versus a Bears team who have little to play for beyond pride. KC have won six of their last seven games on the road too, and it's hard to see the Bears keeping pace with them. I'm willing to lay the Chiefs -6 at 1.9210/11.

On the total, the play has to be under given we cannot trust the Bears offence against an improving Chiefs defence. Kansas City haven't been quite as explosive since Mahomes' return scoring-wise either, so while they can cover the spread, I'm not expecting them to hit the 40-point mark on their own. Under 44.5 at 1.9420/21 makes sense.

For a scoring interest, it's hard to find value with so many options on the Chiefs offence, though linebacker Roquan Smith's injury means there could be a bit more space for Travis Kelce across the middle of the field, so I'd marginally favour him in first TD and anytime markets, at 7/1 and 5/4, over the other standout option, Tyreek Hill.

You can combine Kelce Anytime with plays on the total (Under 44.5) and handicap (KC -6.5) on the Sportsbook for a Same Game Multi of 8/1.