Three games to write about this week for Neil Monnery as he looks to add to his profitable start to the season. The NY Jets have brought 350 rolls of toilet paper with them to London. That seems crazy but they should return with the win.
"The Rams may have beaten the Seahawks in Week 1 but since then they've lost at Washington and at home to the Steelers, scoring just 16 points in two full games. In the past two games Arizona have scored 95 points."
New York Jets v Miami Dolphins (in London)
Live on BBC Two
The first of the triple-header comes from London and is live on terrestrial TV. The BBC don't exactly get a marquee match-up alas.
We saw the Dolphins on TV last week and they looked awful, beaten 41-14 by the Buffalo Bills and Ryan Tannehill threw three picks. The Jets defence is at least as good as Buffalo's and their new head coach Todd Bowles oversaw one of the most under-appreciated units in Arizona when he was employed in the desert.
As for the Jets, they have a serviceable QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick who can't carry a team but won't knee-cap one either. Chris Ivory is expected to play, which is a huge fillip as the running game without him went nowhere last week. Eric Decker's availability though is far more up in the air. The wide receiver has travelled to London but whether he suits up or not is expected to be a game time decision.
When looking at this game a couple of factors stand out. Firstly, the Dolphins' loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in week two. Any defeat to the awful Jags should throw up major warning signs. Secondly, Miami look like a team that has given up on their head coach. A trip to London is not what they needed. The Jets are a far superior defensive team and they might even have the edge on offence as well.
Stunningly (and this is about as stunned I've ever been on the exchange) the Jets are only slight favourites at 1.910/11 to win straight up. They've actually drifted since Tuesday. I'm all over this and on the Sportsbook you can get 11/2 on them winning by 13+ points. Looks good to me.
3ptsBack NY Jets to win @ 1.910/11 on the Exchange
1pt Back NY Jets to win by 13+ points at 11/2 on the Sportsbook
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Live on Sky Sports 2
Next up we switch over to our regular home of the NFL to see the 3-0 Bengals entertain the 1-2 Chiefs. Kansas City are coming off the short week having played a tough one in Lambeau Field on Monday night. The Bengals had a barnstormer with Baltimore last week but found a way to win to put themselves very much in pole position in the AFC North.
I wrote in the week that the Bengals were trending up, and I stand by that opinion (solely for the regular season though). Andy Dalton keeps getting it done without the pressure of the playoffs and AJ Green is a beast. Can I interest you in his outing last week of 227 yards on ten receptions for two touchdowns?
I'm not all-in on the Bengals. They went to Oakland and won, which is a better result than most people realise, and also edged two close games against teams that were expected to challenge in San Diego and Baltimore. My confidence isn't high, yet I just can't see them stumbling this weekend. Kansas City had that tough game on Monday, the heartbreaking loss against Denver in week two and must now stay on the road to face a tough team.
Because of my thoughts on the Bengals I can't run on to the exchange and dump my life savings on them but at 1.558/15 they look a solid bet to win the game straight up. On the Sportsbook you can get them -3.5 points to win at 10/11 and if you stay there you can get the same price for over 44.5 points in the match.
3pts Back Cincinnati Bengals to win @ 1.558/15 on the Exchange
2pts Back Cincinnati Bengals to win with a 3.5 point handicap at 10/11 on the Sportsbook
2pts Back over 44.5 points at 10/11 on the Sportsbook
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Live on Sky Sports 2
The final game is a mismatch. The Rams may have beaten the Seahawks in week one but since then they've lost at Washington and at home to the Steelers, scoring just 16 points in two full games. In the past two games Arizona have scored 95 points. There's not much point in writing about who is going to win this one because Arizona are.
So we need to find some interesting angles on the betting front. Arizona have a great defence and an offense where Larry Fitzgerald is now lining up both outside and in the slot, which has given the Cardinals a completely new dimension. In the past two games he's gone for 256 yards and has made the Zebras raise their arms to signal a touchdown on five separate occasions. It is great to see him back at as a dominant receiver in the NFL again - those days when Kurt Warner was throwing to him seem so long ago.
I think it is clear that we are backing the Cardinals straight up at 1.374/11 but on the Sportsbook the handicap is only 6.5 points. That seems very low to me considering Arizona's smallest margin of victory so far this season is 12 points.
3pts Back Arizona Cardinals to win @ 1.374/11 on the Exchange
3pts Back Arizona Cardinals to win with a 6.5 point handicap at 20/23 on the Sportsbook
Neil Monnery NFL P/L 2015 Season
Staked - 15pts
Returned - 40.27pts
P&L - +25.27pts